weatherman222's Blog

Well after last nights (Wednesday night) severe weather event, I doubted today (Thursday) would hold much activity in the form of weather. Well I was wrong! Beginning mid afternoon storms began developing and rapidly intensified and quickly began to produce damaging winds. One of these cells came across Madison County, MO and caused widespread damage in Fredericktown, MO at about 4:45 PM. We had numerous large tree limbs down and even a few trees. Many were blocking streets causing a lot of problems for people trying to get home. The trees caused a larger issue with power lines. Many lines were downed causing large power outages across the city. Some lines were brought down and remained live. Some limbs also came down on homes and vehicles causing damage. The Fredericktown Fire Dept was dispatched to check on residents and secure locations were downed power lines existed. They also aided city crews in clearing the streets. One good thing was no injuries were reported even since it was a surprise storm for many. I would like to say good job to all who helped out tonight because this was a pretty large event and everyone came together to help each other out and make things go as smoothly as possible. Here are some pics and video. I would like to mention that I didn't get anywhere close to photographing all of the damage due to the loss of day light.

The bitter cold has certainly settled into the area and now the question is, where's the snow??? Well it looks to be just around the corner for later in the week. Right off the bat it does look to be that any precip for this storm will be all snow, and all areas should see some of the white stuff. Yes that even means areas down south were we've been left cold and dry for most of this winters storms. The set up looks like this. We will have a southern low pressure moving across the Arkansas area sometime around the late Wednesday night and Thursday morning time line. We should already have cold air in place but another cold front will settle just south of our area. This front will provide the lift and be the focus for moisture along with the low pressure moving along it. So as this takes place an area of snow should develop and move ENE across our area on Wed night and Thur morning. This snow should be a dry and fluffy snow, but it will accumulate. Since most surfaces will be below freezing it should accumulate on many surfaces. So the potential for slick travel will be in place. Slick isn't a good thing for motorists and kids trying to get to school so this system does have the potential to cause some pretty big problems in the commute. Hopefully school districts will watch things closely to not put students in danger. As for accumulations at this time it appears a general 1-4" snow is on tap for the majority of the area, but less when you go 20+ miles or so north of I70. Now for us southern folk it looks like we could see areas with 4"+ snow accumulation with this storm :) Now it looks like flurries and snow showers will be possible Friday into the weekend. These small areas of energy could produce additional accum anytime. Now the second story of this event will be the brutal cold that could be enhanced after any accumulation of snow. Below zero temps would not be out of the question if this unfolds like the above thinking. So be prepared for that really cold weather that should push in over the weekend. So what does everyone else think about this upcoming storm? Do you think the timing will cause huge problems? What is your analysis of the models?

Well after a crazy week of models solutions are now pointing to the increasing possibility of a significant ice storm. It is now time to start preparing for hazardous to impossible travel, large and extended power outages, and dangerous cold. People need to begin to prepare for this storm as soon as possible due to the onset being on Sat. All people in and around the St. Louis county warning area need to prepare for this storm as any small change in timing of precip, timing of cold air, and positioning of the low could change the amounts and locations of the freezing or frozen precip. But none the less it is a good idea to prepare as the potential is quite large. Another thing to remember is power outages. If this occurs they will become likely, so I'm sure Ameren and other power companies and cooperatives are preparing as best as they can for this storm and they will work as hard as they can to get the lights on, so be courteous to crews and be as patient as possible. Now on to the preparedness info which is from the NWS office in St. Louis:

Around the Home

Keep ahead of advancing winter weather by listening to NOAA Weather Radio.
An ice storm will take down power lines knocking out electricity. Check battery powered equipment before the storm arrives.
Check your food and stock an extra supply. Include food that requires no cooking in case of power failure. If there are infants or people who need special medication at home, make sure you have a supply of the proper food and medicine. Make sure pets and animals have shelter and a water supply.
If appropriate, check your supply of heating fuel. Fuel carriers may not be able to reach you due to closed roads.
Be careful when using fireplace, stoves, or space heaters. Proper ventilation is essential to avoid a deadly build-up of carbon monoxide. Don't use charcoal inside as it gives off large amounts of carbon monoxide. Keep flammable material away from space heaters and do not overload electric circuits.
Dress for the conditions when outdoors. Wear several layers of light-weight, warn clothing: layers can be removed to prevent perspiring and subsequent chill. Outer garments should be tightly woven, waterproof and hooded. For the hands, mittens, snub at the wrists, offer better protection than fingered gloves.
Don't kill yourself shoveling snow. It is extremely hard work for anyone in less than prime physical condition. It can bring on a heart attack, a major cause of death during and after winter storms.

Automobiles

Your automobile can be your best friend or worst enemy during winter storms. Get your car winterized before winter arrives. The following items should be checked; ignition system, cooling system, fuel system, battery, lights, tires, heater, brakes, wipers, defroster, oil, exhaust. Keep water out of your fuel tank by keeping it full.
If you travel often during winter, carry a winter storm kit in you car. It should include; flashlight, windshield scraper, paper towels, extra clothes, matches/candles, booster cables, compass, maps, sand, chains, blankets, high calorie non-perishable food.
Winter travel by car is serious business. If the storm exceeds or tests your driving ability, seek available shelter immediately.
Plan your travel. Try not to travel alone and drive in convoy when possible.
Drive carefully and defensively. Pump your breaks when trying to stop on snow or ice covered roads.

You can find more info at:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=winterday

Well that's the million dollar question. First of the potential for a major winter storm hasn't went anywhere, but the details are nowhere close to foreseeable. Models as with anything this far out aren't helping and just playing their classic flipping and flopping games. So with only a few more unhelpful model runs under my belt I see no reason to let the guard down for a winter storm this weekend. First off the setup: We will have an arctic cold front approaching the area from the NW. Along and ahead of the front warm and moist air small areas of energy move along and south of the front setting the stage for rain (some could be heavy). Now as this front slides to the SE the colder denser air will under cut the warmer less dense air causing an overrunning precip area aka freezing rain and sleet. Now as the cold air mass moves farther south and deepens it looks as it will be able to support some snow at he finish of the system. Now this last portion of the setup including the freezing rain etc will be all dependent on the southward movement of the front. There is some question to if the front could stall or slow before reaching the area throwing off timing and accumulation amounts. This will have to be monitored as a faster movement would have the opposite effects. Now I think things will go like this: Starting on Thursday and Thursday noche through Saturday we should see periods of rain (possibly heavy). Now on Saturday afternoon and evening as the front moves our way (giving no stalling or slowing) rain should change to periods of freezing rain and sleet north to south. On Sunday expect some freezing rain and sleet changing over to mostly snow as the cold air deepens with everything ending by Monday. Now as far as accumulations go there is no point in giving out numbers at this time given the uncertainty with this system, but just keep in mind that there is the potential for significant ice and snow accumulations. Again I urge everyone to be prepared for this storm as it shows signs of smacking the area again with treacherous travel and possible power outages. Don't mess around with ice storms. Check out the NWS St. Louis website for a preparedness guide. So is anyone else taking or planning on taking precautions with this storm? Also what does everyone else think about it (timing, front movement, model output, accum, etc.)? Lets just keep on watching this system throughout the week. Have a great day.

Some like it and others don't but our mild January weather is about to come to an abrupt and stormy end. The period of time around the 11-15 of January has been on the table the table for awhile now for and arctic air break out and here it comes. But now the potential for precipitation being around when the cold air moves in appears to be possible. First off in terms of the models continue to show waves of precip moving through the area from Thursday into Monday. Now the heavier of the precip will be centered on the weekend. Now the attention turns to the cold air, specifically the timing of its arrival, and its depth. Models are having difficulties with the timing of the cold air, they have been tending for a slower arrival. None the less the cold air should begin impacting the area Saturday night. Now this with colder air in place that brings the question of precipitation types. It looks like at this time that the cold air will be shallow at first and the denser shallower cold air mass should under cut the warmer less dense air mass. What that boils down to is what most people fear, ICE! It does appear that a significant icing event will be possible somewhere in the Midwest. Now this is a very touchy situation. This will depend on the position of the cold air that will be pushing into the area. Now some questions still surround the possibility for the stalling or slowing of the progression of the cold air across our area. So if this occurs it could create a range of precip types across the region. So the severity of this winter event will be very dependent on the timing of the cold air. A basic rule with this system will be places north of the front will see the greatest risk for icing and other winter threats. I do see everyone seeing some winter precip with this system as the cold air makes its way through the area. To simplify things it looks like the precip will start as rain then change to freezing rain/ sleet on Sat Night, then as the colder air deepens precip should change to snow. Now it is extremely early to talk about accumulations but where things come together significant accumulations will be possible. So I urge everyone to prepare for this potential event, because it seems possible for a pretty long period of freezing or frozen precip. With a setup like this could be worse than the Nov 30 event, so be prepared for any power outages and transportation difficulties. Review your winter weather preparedness rules and get some supplies ready in case this thing happens. Now this isn't a done deal with this system so take everything with a grain of salt but be prepared just in case. Just keep abreast of the forecast all week as this will be a tough call, again the key is where the front and cold air will lie in addition to the precipitation. So what does everyone else think about this storm and especially the potential for a stalling or slowing front, also are you taking or plan on preparing for this storm?

Well it is now Christmas. All week many people in the myFOX community have been following the up and down possibility of snow, that seems to be ending in flop. There will be a possibility for some wet snow, sleet, or flurries today. This could occur as the frozen precip mixes with the rain or completely changes over. So if you observe and changes in precip type or even any accumulations I'm curious to know when and where, so leave me a post! Everyone have a Merry Christmas be it white, wet, or just dry and green.

This has been a seemingly impossible storm to pin down. At first it looked like snow, then rain, then snow, and now looks like a mainly rain system with some snow. But I'm not ready to buy that idea yet. As recent history has shown the models could very easily flip back around tonight. Also since we are now very close to this event any non predicted movement could change the outcome of tomorrow. One factor will continue to be when, and where the northern and southern systems phase. Yesterday it was in Arkansas but know it looks like it will be farther east. Another thing that has been problematic is they arrival of the cold air with this system. It seems as now the colder air will hold off until late Christmas day into Christmas night. I with the new runs today I'm going to have to say this system will be mostly rain. I really hate to say that because there are still so many factors with this but with current info it looks mainly liquid. As far as accumulation go they have been decreased significantly due to the length of time the precip will remain liquid. I like the idea of a dusting to an inch around the St. Louis metro south to around Farmington then maybe 1-2" south from there to Cape Girardeau. But we can still hope that things will change overnight and maybe colder air will come in faster than expected. Any thing is possible with the crazy system. So just watch it and hope. Most of all have a Merry Christmas, and remember the reason for the season! Anyone have anything to increase the hope of a White Christmas.

Well if you are you can wake up because it looks like a pretty decent chance for most areas. First off to the models. Well on Friday the NAM was not doing a good job with handling this storm but it has recollected itself and now has what seems to be the best solution. Previous model solutions had not shown the northern storm and the southern storm coming together but now it does. The NAM solution suggests the norther storm which will supply cooler air will join up with the southern storm which will hold the moisture across Arkansas. From there are hope for a white Christmas will move east-northeast. On the northern and western edge of the storm precipitation should start as rain and change to snow on Christmas day, and that poses a question. With new data in from the 00z NAM, shows a little bit more warm air at the surface and takes more time for colder air to filter in, changing the amount of time it takes the liquid precip to change to all snow. One possible reason for this change could be that the NAM has weakened the northern system which is supplying the cooler air by just a little. If this would be a problem accumulation could be significantly impacted. I'll talk accumulations in a bit. Now to the GFS. Right off the bat this is a bad run for this champion of winter system forecasting. The 00Z solution shows the two systems not coming together and a southern system that is moisture starved. If this were to happen which I'm pretty positive it won't, it would bring our snow to just flurries. So the only somewhat useful model of the 00Z run would be the NAM. Now I said I will talk some accumulations on this. First off I really like the way Chris has went with the accumulations this evening. I will go ahead and say 3-5"+ over SE MO and southern IL then as you head further north into the St. Louis metro I like 1-3" with the possibility of a higher amount as you go east-south east. These are a little bit down from Chris's forecast but I'm doing a bit of now-casting on the data from tonight. This number will change sometime tomorrow because were still seeing this thing unfold across Texas and data will be coming in tomorrow. I really think the NWS will start talking a lot about this in their AFD's and HWO's. I also expect a snow advisory or winter wx advisory to be issued at some point during the day tomorrow if things keep looking like this. None of this is set in stone though. None of the models are showing great run to run consitencies or much of an agreement between themselves, also the storms are still developing and have not phased together yet and that will also determine a lot with the storm. So again we have to watch this very close as this storm pulls together and more data comes in from area to the SW. But the potential certainly does exist for a significant winter event across the nations heartland on Christmas Day into Christmas night. So stay tuned and have a Merry Christmas! Any one else have a different idea on this thing???

Well after a day of monitoring model runs and any other source of info it looks like we have a significantly better chance of a white Christmas than a few days ago. This evenings runs of the GFS continue to have cold air in place on Christmas and moisture around so that means snow. It also keeps the low farthest north and west than any other model at this time. With this solution the area including the St. Louis metro and points south and east stand a decent chance of a white Christmas, with the possibility of significant accumulations. Areas further south and east would have the higher amounts. Now the 00z NAM has done the well known flop and brought the storm south and further east again killing our snow. I think this is defiantly a flop run, and should be ignored. One thing of mention is that earlier runs of the NAM are in decent agreement with the latest GFS run. So with a very busy travel day on the way snow could mean huge problems so stay vigilant with this system. Now I'll give the standard disclaimer with any forecast product that this storm is still a few days out and things could change, but somewhere around the heartland there will be a significant winter event. Also the forecast needs to be monitored closely as the storm track will get very active in to next week and beyond. So as of right now the latter part of next week looks interesting and then closer to or after new years. So defiantly good times for snow bunnies! So what do you believe the Christmas holiday beholds as far as weather? Any one see anything different in the models. Enjoy the weekend and have a Merry Christmas!

...ACCUMULATING SNOWS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE
LATER THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN BY
CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH RAIN CHANCES STEADILY INCREASING AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND SPREADS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD
STATE...MAKING FOR A WET START TO CHRISTMAS DAY.

WHILE THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A REINFORCING SHOT OF UPPER AIR ENERGY...AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY...COLDER AIR...WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST LATER IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO OFFER
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE DAY...LIKE THE OZARK FOOTHILLS IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. THE COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO THEN SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION CHRISTMAS NIGHT...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND
LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL INDICATIONS NOW ARE PROJECTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN TWO OR THREE
INCHES.

THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ACCUMULATING WINTRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER BY TUESDAY.

CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE
LATEST FORECAST AND UPDATES TO THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM...AND PLAN THEIR HOLIDAY TRAVEL ACCORDINGLY. THERE
IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST...SO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS NOW IN CASE IT TURNS OUT TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN
EXPECTED.



Things are defiantly looking intresting, so lets watch this very closley.

Well I had almost written off the chance of a white Christmas, I know this isn't a good thing to do in weather but with model run after model run piling up that was showing the low further east and south. But there seems to be a turning point occurring. The latest NAM continues to push the storm the north and west. This run would bring wintry precip to areas of SE Missouri and leaves Stl in the possibility category as the storm could move even more north and west. The GFS has actually moved the storm a tad bit to the east and south again, but I will ignore that since it had also moved it north and west last night. So maybe just a flop run. Another factor will be a cold front with some energy along it also moving through Christmas, this could bring some light snow or flurries to the area also. So the bottom line is that this thing continues to show the area as a potential target for winter weather around Christmas. With all the travel and celebrations taking place everyone should monitor things very closely over the next few days as the models and everyone else gets a handle on the situation. The NWS in Stl has not done a very good job mentioning the possibilities with this system lately in their HWO and AFD's, so hopefully they will go a little more in depth with this system later today. Need to also say that this thing still could go back to a south and east track but the possibility of a north and west track has increased quite a bit in the last 24 hrs so lets watch very closely. Anyone out there have any other ideas or any brave enough to talk accumulation possibilities?

BTW things continue to look intresting around the first of the year with a lot of cold air around and a large storm system moving towards us, whats everyone think about that system?

Well with the National Weather Service office in St. Louis having the most severe weather reports of any office in the country for 2006 (723 reports), I was wondering what your most memorable weather event be it classic severe thunderstorms or winter weather was for 2006. You can even reminisce of a severe event from past years also.

My most memorable event of 2006 would have to be the tornado outbreak of March 11 and the outbreak of September 22. These events brought a supercell through the northern part of Madison County MO and produced tornado damage in Mine La Motte, MO which is north of Fredericktown where I live. I saw the actual tornado the night of 3/11 between lightning flashes just to my NE, and on 9/22 another tornado which I believe I caught in the early stages of development on my camera ( pic in my photos ) produced more damage and also severely injured one man in Mine La Motte. That was one strong storm. It went on to produce the F4 tornado that leveled Crosstown, MO.

So what do you remember?

Well despite the GFS's slight northward push of the low, things just don't currently look great for a white Christmas. The low continues to be depicted just too far south by the models. The only other possibility would be some light snow or flurries from a clipper system dropping down on Christmas, but not all that exited about that since it looks as moisture will be hard to come by. I really want this thing too change but just too many factors against it. I like the idea of several people that the more active pattern will settle in after new years, with cold air arriving just after the first, but probably not stay put for very long until mid January. As far as storms; still one around new years, which could get interesting. If the El nino pattern does relax the storm pattern should stay active in January. So we'll just continue to watch the activity around Christmas and new years and hope for the connection of cold and moisture. Again for a white Christmas lets not forget it but things haven't been going are way the last couple days. Anyone else have an other idea about Christmas and new years?
Also something neat to look at over at the NWS. They are putting out their year in review of severe events. Pretty neat stuff. The address is: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=2006inreview

Have a merry and hopefully white Christmas!

Well a white Christmas is looking a little more LESS likely to occur with the model runs from today even to the 00z run of the GFS tonight. Now everyone should know by now that models will flip and flop about in a longer range look like this one. Well first off the models from yesterday depicted a low pressure system dipping south into Texas and moving East across central Arkansas and then making a sharp NE turn, brushing eastern portions of MO. Well Tuesday's runs and the 00Z GFS now show the system like this: some what weaker, a lot farther south, and a NE turn into the Ohio valley and not making much contact with MO or western IL. Also the timing has slowed some bringing it later than previous runs. If this track would come true it would effectively kill the chances of any snow for Christmas except for maybe extreme parts of SE IL and points North and East. The NWS has taken these an runs and ran with them and downplayed this system a bunch and virtually removed much of any chance of snow. There is still a sliver of hope though. With this event being 5 days away the models could very easily flip and flop back into our favor, and increase the chance of a white Christmas again. But only time will tell as even this storm may not follow the models at all and surprise everyone. So something to hope for and think about as we get closer to Christmas. Now one thing that continues to stay quite consistent in the runs now for several days is the potential for a cold air outbreak and a couple of decent sized systems around the first of the year. So this will also be something that will need to be watched very closely as the models are showing some pretty big stuff. Everyone have a great day on Wednesday and keep the dream going! Also what does everyone else think about these snow bunny hating model runs, and the activity around New Years?


Merry Christmas!

Another model run has come in late tonight. And thank goodness it still shows a low pressure system dipping south into Texas and moving East across central Arkansas and then making a sharp NE turn. With this track the potential certainly exists for a fairly significant winter event somewhere across the Midwest if not right here. Couple that with the major holiday that will be in progress and people need to stay alert with this one. Things can and will change with these models but they have been pretty consistent with this system for a couple of days now, which increases the possibility of this event happening. Things will defiantly change some though and that should be noted, but this thing is going to get somebody, so why not us. Also of note is the period around New Years. The GFS has also been pretty consistent with a couple a decent systems around. It is also showing a shot of cold coming down from Canada and beyond. So another thing too look forward to if your a "Snow Rabbit" like stormspotter 63640 or still just a snow bunny. So defiantly stay tuned on this one. What does everyone else interpret the models as and whats your thoughts on a white Christmas or new years?