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by guyatacomputer

Last Post 178 days, 19 hours Ago


Weekly weather Blog - week of May 25, 2008
May 25, 2008 | 4:22 PM
Category: Weather
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Okay, folks, this is my first attempt at a Fox Weather Blog so please be gentile.

I felt I needed to start one because of the incredible weather set up we're starting to see for the beginning of this week. As I'm writing this there are six tornado watches in effect and two severe thunderstorm watches - including one for metro St. Louis - across the Central U.S.. Here in O'Fallon, MO we have had 3 or 4 rounds of t-storms today. The air has the thunderstorm "feel" to it, and there is pretty good temperature contrast between St. Louis at 73 degrees and Springfield, MO at 87. The promised beautiful weekend is here, as long as you can duck inside when the storms come through. This is definitely a time to have a weatheralert radio close by. Angela Hutti's video of the tornado could be repeated numerous over the next few of days, including right here in the bi-state area.

The severe weather possibility is supposed to continue into Tuesday. There is also the possibility for heavy rain, with the QPF forecasts showing as much as 4" of rain for us, and as much as 6 in northern Missouri. I'm not putting much stock in the precision of those amounts when it's being generated by such unpredictable storm patterns is not all the good...and it can't be given the current imprecisions that exist in the science. Stil lthe potential is there for a very wet couple of days.

Finally, a HUGE THANK YOU to all the military veterans and their families this holiday weekend. I value my freedom, and I know it is as a result of your commitment that I have it.


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Member Comments Total Comments: 40
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Peagcu read my blog
May 25, 2008 | 5:02 PM

Well guy, considering some have seen more than 4 inches today any number is possible.
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 5:47 PM

I had just finished my note when I saw your comment about 4" Peagcu. I would agree. As fueled up as the air is with moisture if one of storms builds up and parks over an area 8-10" or more isn't out of the realm of possibility.
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 6:19 PM

HOOO LEEE COW!!!

Storms exploding from Jeff City south and headed this way. And the area around Mark Twain Lake is going to see see training of some tremendous storms. The first one has/had a hook echo for a while and I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the others do it, too. Those are blowing up practically from one radar frame to the next. WOW!
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 6:32 PM

That lead supercell storm coming in from Mark Twin Lake has made the right turn and is headed this way. And it should get to the metro area about the same time as the line of storms moving this way from south of Jeff City. Unless they die of some with the loss of daytime heating they will converge over the metro area. could get real interesting in the next hour or two!!
Peagcu read my blog
May 25, 2008 | 6:33 PM

Yeah, it's a real explosive situation now. these storms are pretty discrete and have room to form. That one down here was wild. I drive in and out of it as it was coming together and it had lots of hail in it.
Peagcu read my blog
May 25, 2008 | 6:37 PM

Yeah I noticed a bit of turn going on there. We also had a small cell fire up just west of here and another Montgomery county. That may get sucked into the one up by Mark Twain and become a huge supercell. These minor players have a lot of N movement, but the big boys are all turning e to ese to almost dead se
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 6:53 PM

We've got a severe t-storm warning for us now. As you said that one is just a minor player. It appears to be very little movement to it, so Warren County could get a dump of rain similar to what Randolph county got earlier today. Gonna' be a busy night
Peagcu read my blog
May 25, 2008 | 6:55 PM

Yes it is.
Peagcu read my blog
May 25, 2008 | 6:59 PM

Big bow echo coming across S MO and then there is another supercell looking storm coming out of The Lake of the Ozarks area. It's near Lebanon and Osage beach moving toward Rolla. It looks like it's about to go supercelll shortly. it's gathering bit and pieces. I'm waiting for this to do some right turning shortly.
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 7:04 PM

And that last one north of Springfield, MO is headed almost due north at a faster speed than the rest of them. Whaddya' think - on an outflow boundary from one the other storms?
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 7:06 PM

Am I seeing a hook start to form on the southern end that Warren County one?
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 7:13 PM

The one between Jeff City and Rolla just keeps growing. It's almost covering a whole county!
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 7:16 PM

Another tornado warning issued SE of chester for the storm that went tornadic through Randolph County
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 7:34 PM

New storm blowing up in northern Jefferson County heading north towards the STL County
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 7:39 PM

I don't remember the last time there were THIS many storms in this many different spots, blowing up and moving all kinds of directions...all with the potential to go severe,
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 8:22 PM

That bow echo SE of Rolla is getting some interesting reflections right behind it. That may be some rain contaminating the radar, but if it's not ????

Also the storms have set up quickly between STL and Columbia. I'm waiting to get a clear idea which direction they're moving
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 8:53 PM

I won't be surprised to see a flash flood warning issued for Montgomery, Lincoln and especially Warren County very shortly. They've been getting pretty heavy rain since about 6 PM, and the storms there now just don't seem to be going anywhere very fast.
guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 9:17 PM

Flash flood warnings right and left now - that was pretty much of a gimme. Although I wasn't expecting the tornado warning for Warren County. Just from casual observation hose storms didn't look like they would have rotation
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 10:54 PM

Whew, what a night this is! You guys nailed it w/ the word explosive, I was thinking that exactly a couple of hours ago. Pretty cool stuff going on too, the MCV that is moving across Eastern MO has multiple cyclonic rotations embedded in it. That complex/bow that moved out of SW MO had a pretty well defined spin, and the complex that formed across Eastern MO and Western IL had one as well - a tight circulation near the "head" of the bow that prompted warnings for the County about an hour ago. Lot's of outflow boundaries moving around too.

We haven't had any hail here in Brighton, but we have had 3" of rain, and our pond has broken the height record set back in March. I never thought it would get that high again, but when I saw all the backbuilding storms that lead to this complex, I said that it would probably do it again - we'd already had about an inch earlier today, and previous rainfalls the past few days. It's really pouring over the dam/road right now, I'm sure the crest and sides are going to be a mess with washouts and gullies.

This complex seems to be getting some forward momentum, and I don't think we'll see much more development after it clears the area. Tomorrow will be a similar setup, although I think the severe threat will trump the heavy rain tomorrow, although a VERY close eye will be needed for that, with extremely saturated ground, and another round of storms to come. I think the severe weather threat tomorrow demands some pretty high attention - the fresh NAM run is forcasting some impressive stuff. Keep an eye to the sky tomorrow for sure
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
May 25, 2008 | 10:55 PM

!

Have a great Memorial Day, stay safe, and remember what it's really all about!
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