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frivolousz21's Blog

by frivolousz21 from Fairview Heights, IL

Last Post 122 days, 11 hours Ago


1. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-l.jpg


looks good...has a closed ciculation with northerly shear to slow the development.


If the shear lets up in the next couple of days as that moves Southwest, West, the WNW....

it could easily exoplode into a massive hurricane in 4 days in the golf
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More Flooding rains, severe storms, and high winds.



Weather information can be found at:


  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/


I figured we don't know when Chris Higgins will be posting again...so if anyone wants to talk about this weeks weather..you can..I figured since I cannot do writeups like he does.  Everyone can add whatever they want.









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Since St. Louis is a heat island...I am going to use Scott Air Force Base as the example.
its on flat ground..about 400 feet above sea level.

this afternoon starting at noon.

925mb temps(2100 feet above sea level) roughly 1700 feet above belleville will rise 1c at noon to 5c by 7pm.

without snow pack..this would warm us up into the mid to upper 40s.


at 10am the surface temp was 17f. while 925mb temps were 28f.

all the models have trended much colder today with surface temps because of the snow cover.

yesterday they were forecasting highs in the upper 30s.

the nws has the high around 36.


all the models warm the 925mb temps to 35-43 degrees today.

at 11am in Belleville the temperature is 22F

so lets see if the sun this afternoon will warm it up or the temps stay in the upper 20s.

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Jeff Masters weather blog is a great place to follow Dean.

 

 Its possible that Dean will become a top 5 hurricane in the Atlantic all time..as it heads into warm waters..with high heat content....and low shear.

 


Jeff Masters

 

also the artic ice shelf broke the all time record....5 WEEKS BEFORE MELTING ENDS!!!!

 

Ice Shelf

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now its forecasted to be 108!

 

and 107 at the airport.

 

already 101 degrees!

 

 

 

 

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incredible what kind of weather we get here:

 

on Feb 15th the high was 15 and the low was 4

 

march 17th:  high: 38  low: 30   flurries

march 21st: high: 79 low:  53

March 20th-29th the highs were never below 70.

 

april 2nd: high: 83  low: 48

april 4th: High: 43  Low: 29

april 7th: high" 37  Low: 23 

 at that time..some temps in the suburbs were in the TEENS!!!

 APRIL 14TH: we had all night rain..with sleet at times..and then snow flakes mixing with rain with temps in the mid to upper 30's...amazing.

 

JULY: which is ussually are hottest month.we had an average temp of 88!

 

well...

August:  so far an average high of 96....and as I  type the temp is about 100..

 

are average high might touch 98 by Friday....amazing!

 

Lets all hope we get an early winter storm in november to make the winter fun

 

 

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So far the spring has been a huge bust for severe weather..which is good since people are safe and damage is low.

 

However for people who love weather its terribly boring...and this upcoming week looks to be more of that....no chance of rain until late friday night and sat. 

 

We might get lucky and see temps nudge up to 95 one day...however that is with very low dewpoints so it wont be anything to be excited over.

 

 

Hopefully the cards sweep the royals!

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Its on the 00z, and 06z run.

 

however as I write this...the local FD said the GFS has grid feedback issues.

the nam picks up on one in central mo..moving threw the southern counties before dying out.

the current rain in central MO should help without outflow boundries for convection today.

I can only wish the GFS comes to fruition

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If you make a blog to state your political views.

dont delete comments of posters unless they are vile...Ive read threw a couple peopls blogs and its clear they have deleted facts or opinions that are against there own.

there are also many bloggers calling people losers and so and such.

its the internet there is no reason to get all internet tuff.

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This is a topic that makes me LIVID.....on my way home form work..listening to sports radio..the host of the show...who I wont name...ripped weather..he has always ripped weather.

He rips the mets for getting exited..he has said the mets love when there is people hurting..he rips the mets for "rolling up the sleeves"

so today the Host and his callers ripped the mets because there wasnt a lot worse damage.

wow...thats just ignorant and wrong...I guess the people in enterprise, AL dont need mets either right?

If we had NO weather service...THOUSANDS OF AMERICANS WOULD DIE EACH YEAR FROM WEATHER RELATED EVENTS...its pretty sad when a large portion of the public takes weather so lightly..like its some game.

 

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the Extended Euro brings down crazy cold.

looks like sometime between now and spring the artic express is coming.

the NAM is dry and threw 48 hours hold the 500 mb low back over nothern mexico.

it also has a clipper over us at 48 hours but its very dry
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BC0404


he predicted 3.1 inches at Lambert and that was dead on.

He also predicted the warm nose of air moving north would move further north then models and the NWS predicted.

so that cut into the totals.
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Here is the deal.

this is the 1st of two Snowfall prediction blogs....I wont be able to create the 2nd blog tomorrow..so someone will have to volunteer to do so.

we are going to do THREE predictions.

1. St. Louis official snowfall at Lambert.

2. your own city..you can make your predictions..then measure after the event...using the honor system :)

3. the highest amount in the STL viewing area

You can start to post your predictions at 10pm tonight-midnight.

this time frame is selected so everyone has a chance to go over the new information
from the 00utc model runs.

continued:
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Looks to go negative by the the end of the week.

after some moderation....next week the GFS and EURO bring the artic express again....with temps colder then we will see the next 3 days..

there is also a good chance.our temps wont be above 40 degrees much if at all in the next 3 weeks...

if the NAO stays negative threw the rest of the winter..with a weaking EL NINO...we could finally see round after round of winter weather threw March.
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the odds for christmas snow..are less then they are for not.

but at this point..the models have no idea.

the 0z and 12z runs are in somewhat agreement.and the off hour runs are way diff....and flopping all over.

see you all at 0z :)
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frivolousz21

I am 25 years I love the weather, expecially winter storms!

Member Since: 9/18/2006