foxfan1's Blog

Good morning one and all, I come writing you today to lay down some ideas on the table for a potential severe outbreak across the bi-state tomorrow and into saturday. Now before I get to the St Louis region, for today the SPC has outlined a high risk for severe weather and tornadoes for eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. and unfourntally this could lead to strong long lived tornadoes like folks in the Parkersburg, IA community saw on Sunday.

Now on to the bi-state region.  Looking at the weather models, the situation is kinda hard to get a good grasp on as to what kinds of severe weather we will see. I would have to say that tornadoes is possible, however I feel that the greatest threat would be from strong bowing straight line winds. think the storms from July in 2006. Now I'm NOT saying that we end up with 600,000 customers without power, but just saying that high winds are likely. The timing looks to be unfourntally late Friday afternoon and Friday evening, the start of the weekend and all that. It is something to keep track of  which the chances of an outbreak are good for 1 main reason. it's going to be my birthday and needless to say may 30th has a track record for outbreaks across the region. Right now the SPC has us all in a slight risk, however i would not be suprised to see areas along and north of I-70 upgraded to a moderate risk tomorrow morning. Keep in tune with the weather, but still enjoy the nice springlike weather for a change...

Good day folks,

   It's been a while since I've posted a blog because of school reasons. But as the song says, "School's Out for summer!!!"  So it's time for blogs... 

Anyway looking ahead at the week ahead, better get ready for June like temps instead of mid May. Highs in the 80's and I would not be suprised to see someone come close to 90 in the middle to late parts of the week.  Storms will be possible, although they will be scattered in nature. As of 2:30 CT Sunday the Storm Prediction Center does have parts of Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois outlined in a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow. Mainly in the afternoon, and it appears that hail is the largest threat from any severe storms that do develop tomorrow.  Towards late week, we may see another minor severe event, but as of this post time it does not look like a massive outbreak for us. The rest of the month does look to have nice springlike temps for a change, so I think we are finally out of the nasty cold temps we have dealt with all month long so far. No graphics today in this posting, and also a free plug for Dave's summer outlook special airing Monday night at 9:30 right here on Fox 2. It should be a dandy like always from Dave. More to come later, but enjoy the weather whatever weather we get.

 

P.S. Also check out Chris' blog for some cool pictures of what's called a hoobaa from where he is stationed at in SW asia.

This will be my first test at creating a weekly weather blog. now it won't be near as detailed graphic wise as chris and dave, but it will do for now.

Key points for the week.

1. Severe weather possible tuesday, and again thursday and friday.

2. Heavy Rainfall potential

3. Nice temps most of the week

Severe weather risks this week...

Here is the SPC outlook for tuesday:

As you can see a slight risk for severe storms as posted on the SPC day 3 outlook for tuesday,  Main threats appear to be hail and wind. an isolated tornado can not be out of the question, but is not likely IMO. 

Now on to what very well could be a major severe outbreak that effects the region Thursday and friday. the whole bracket of events are likely, hail, winds, tornadoes. This looks to be a very significant outbreak somewhere in the plains/midwest region. The models are showing signs for a very large widespread tornado outbreak, centered in the mo valley. Here is what the SPC had for their 4-8 day outlook earlier this morning:

and the next threat of the week... heavy rainfall. Yes we will have to watch the rivers again this week, as mother nature obseuvly knows that the Cardinals are out of town, so she will just give us a lot of rainfall. Here is the HPC 5 day rainfall forecast from this afternoon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Temps this week look to be mild for the bi-state region, think 60's and 70's. this will be a very active week severe wise and rainfall wise. Time depending I may edit this to reflect more current conditions as we go thruout the week.

 

 

This from the Thursday edition of the Clay County Advocate Press out of Flora, IL:

"

Six members of the Flora Community Unit 35 School Board voted Tuesday night to censure Board Member Wayne Deaton because of an alleged graduation party at his residence on May 20 where “alcoholic beverages” were brought to and provided to underaged people, including students of the Flora Community High Schools class of 2007.

Deaton apologized to the board for what happened, but said he did not know the party was taking place.

“I disagree with the wording (of the resolution and censure.) I am not happy (the party) took place and I apologize for the appearance of impropriety,” Deaton said.

He said that his wife had discussed having the party, but that he had said he wanted nothing to do with it.

“When I left (before the party took place) I had no idea,” Deaton said. “When I returned I didn't see anything out of place.”

He told the board Tuesday night that he had went to visit with his parents who were in town from Georgia while the party was taking place.

Deaton, who has been on the board for just more than two years, abstained from voting on the resolution and notice of censure.

The resolution that was passed laid out three alleged violations of the Code of Conduct for school board members.

The first allegation was that Deaton failed to “avoid any conflict of interest or the appearance of impropriety,” as laid out in article two of the code. This was the only violation, that Deaton said that he made and presented his own censure including only this point.

Deaton's censure died for lack of a second after he made a motion to substitute his wording for the board's.

The second allegation was that Deaton violated article four of the code which states board members, “shall take no private action that might compromise the board or administration.”

The final allegation was that Deaton violated article five of the code which reads that board members, “shall abide by the decisions of the board, while retaining the right to seek changes in such decisions through ethical and constructive channels.”

The resolution went on to say, “Board Member Wayne Deaton permitted a high school graduation party to take place at his residence on May 20, 2007 in which alcoholic beverages were brought to your residence by others and were made available to underage persons, including graduates of the Flora High School Class of 2007.”

Deaton said he did not feel he was responsible for the party because he was not at home while it was taking place.

The District's Attorney Karl Meurlot said that he was responsible because he owned the property where the party took place.

The resolution said the events were reported to members of the board and administrative staff. It was stated that the Board had been accused of having a “double standard in the enforcement of its policy concerning alcoholic beverages.

After the allegations were made, there was an investigation into the party.

“An investigation determined that the reports of alcoholic beverages brought to your residence by others and made available to underage persons, including graduates of the Flora High School Class of 2007, are correct,” the resolution stated.

The results of the investigation were not read at the meeting, but Board Member Mark Tungate said he believed it should be entered into the record.

The resolution went on to say that the Board felt it was in the best interest of the District and its students that Deaton resign, an action Deaton refused to take.

“The refusal of Wayne Deaton to resign from the Board of Education raises questions as to whether he understands his ethical responsibilities as a member of the Board of Education and the seriousness of his knowingly violating these ethical responsibilities,” the resolution stated.

The action of the Board against Deaton, had three main points:

€ “The Board of Education does not approve or condone the inappropriate conduct of Wayne Deaton, as herein set forth, and is disappointed in his failure to recognize his responsibility as a member of the Board of Education to prevent an activity of this type taking place at his residence.”

€ “The Board of Education dies hereby censure Wayne Deaton for his inappropriately conduct which has caused harm and embarrassment to the Flora School District and the Flora Board of Education.”

€ “The Board of Education encourages Wayne Deaton to become knowledgeable about the Code of Conduct for members of a Board of Education and to meet standards therein set forth so that he can fulfill his ethical responsibilities as a member of the Board of Education of the Flora School District.”

Before the resolution passed Deaton told the board the only reason for a censure was to publicly embarress him and asked them to, “think about what they were about to do.”

Deaton said he had no comment on the whether he planned to fight the censure."

http://www.advocatepress.com/articles/2007/06/08/ne
ws/news02.txt

 

 

Folks, This is just stupid! This is the folks who are in charge of how our children's education is fufilled! If we won't agree to resign, then FIRE, REMOVE him forcefully.

Oh yeah, and you may be asking, well what's he going to be charged with? NOTHING!!!!!!!!  I for one do not want a person in charge of my town's school education!

Personally I'd love to see fox 2 cover this story, and get the inside reports of that invesgation.

What's YOUR thoughts on this idiot?

man oh man was Tony pissed off at the P-D. Lets just say that Tony looked drunk, and nearly got into a fist fight with bernie Milkasz. And I am not joking. hopefully fox2 shows this all day tomorrow. because it was seriously enteraining, unlike FREAK head wilson. can we send him to Memphis now, or better yet lets send him to the cubs!

Why, WHy, WHY does the Cardinals do this All the Freakin time! put Wilson right in front of Pujols. Prime example of at least 2 times where HE killed innings with men in scoring position.  I like the team mostly, heck I think J-rod would have been better in RF than Wilson right now. at least he can hold his bat to his chest and not swing at every pitch!

 

SEND WILSON TO MEMPHIS!!!!!!!!!! at least we would have had a good chance of winning instead of losing 6-1!

the computer models are showing a wide scale severe weather outbreak, effecting Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, MI, West Tennessee parts of Missouri around the bootheel, and even up here in the metro, mainly east parts.

Main threats at this time, Insanely large hail, think baseball to softball sized, and tornadoes. later on as the cells form a line then a bow echo like we had last night will be the main threat with major straight line winds.  Right now the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has areas from Metro area and east and from Farmington south and east in a slight risk. the highest threat area right now is from areas east of I-55 in Illinois. Including the Caryle Lake area, Mt vernon, Salem-Centralia, Nashville, and Vandalia in the Fox 2 viewing area. 

This looks to be a real bad outbreak possible, so stay alert to the Fox 2 weather Team and they will keep you updated.  

First they raise the rates in IL a good 150-200% when all they said is a 30% increase at most, and then they try to help the customers out by giving them a refund to help off-set the costs..... sounds good right?

 

BUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!

Today Ameren decides to NOT give that refund, and the reason is....... They don't have the money to pay it!  WAH,WAH,WAH.  You raise our rates 200% but yet you don't have enough money to give a $40 dollar refund!

Oh yeah and they did NOT alert the Illinois Commerece commision about this move either... Can someone say You paid for it?

I heard the other day about the guy in Carterville who sent Ameren his bill in pennies, unwrapped of course. good for him.

What is your thoughts on Ameren, and please keep it clean.

It seems that NASCAR is treating other drivers better than others.

Example: After today's Duel at Daytona, Winner Jeff Gordon's car was taken to the"room of doom" as all other cars are in post race inspection. Here's where it gets interesting, they find that his car was too low to the ground, that gave him more speed. NASCAR said it was an unintentional mistake. Not saying it was or it wasn't, but because of that Jeff only has to start 42nd in Sunday's Daytona 500 which you can see on fox 2 starting at 1PM with the prerace show.

Of course we all know Michael Waltrip's situation, and the punishment was rightly so in that incident, but lets go back to last sunday again here.

Everham Motorsports, and now roushfenway racing. All get caught with things that were as small as a piece of tape that wasn't there that should have been. And the crew chiefs get sent packing for 4 WEEKS and points taken away and fines, and Jeff Gordon who did something that Robin Pemberton, Nascar's VP of competition said that could have been a hazard only has to give up his 2nd row starting spot on sunday to start 42nd! Come on, clearly  NASCAR is treating some drivers better than other ones. and that imo is going to ruin the sport. I mean when you get punished, you have to start 43RD!!!! He in a sense is getting a lucky dog before the race even starts.

 

I'd like your thoughts on the punishments handed down by nascar this week, were some of them a little too harsh, and some of them too well the best way to say it is, well we will let you buy with it.... this time.

http://img244.imageshack.us/my.php?image=m0ty8.jpg

 
Here is my quick forecast map. It's pretty self explaintory isnt it.
Any change in track south could put more of the region in the core snowfall, which COULD be possible.

I know we are too busy with the ice storm to look out in time, so I did it for ya. and snowlovers or winter weather lovers you may, and I can't emphize may have something to look foward to while your waiting on this storm to finish. The gfs model has a storm that is close to st. louis, just a bit north and west and we will have it. it's close enough to be a watcher, and the Quad Cities NWS office pointed out a possible winter threat in it's afternoon discussion. Will there be one we don't know yet. but it is something to watch, it's been on there for a few runs now so we need to keep an eye on it, espically if you aren't in the running for ice or too much of ice anyway.

AFTER SNOW MOVES OUT ON MON NIGHT...QUIETER PERIOD WILL SET IN.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EVOLUTION OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES...THOUGH AM GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE
ON PATTERN EVOLUTION. MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SW MIDWEEK...WITH POTENTIAL WX IMPACTS
BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO HPC WITH A MODERATING TREND
TOWARD LATE WEEK AS FLOW RETURNS TO A SRLY COMPONENT...THOUGH TEMPS
WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION OF SNOWPACK AND FORECAST IS CURRENTLY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

Quad Cities NWS office AFD

I must emphize LIGHT snow, it won't acclumate much if anything unless you live well east of town, then you may get a 1/2 inch to 1 inch at most as of now, but do not be suprised if in the metro you see some flakes flying for the AM rush on monday.

Now on to the next system which most of us already has our eyes on, which comes in next weekend. I do not think that we will see 3 days straight non-stop of ice and snow, but off and on we will see some over a 3 day period. yes at times the precip will be heavy, and will make driving difficult if not impossible IF the front moves far enough south. Here is my early thoughts on this

Mostly an ice/snow event region wide. Could we see a repeat of nov. 30th with power outages? Highly possible per looking at today's models, will we see acclumations of snow, I think we will. how much, Don't ask me that yet, still WAY too far out. but let me give you some advice, please prepare for this, have some canned food and bread with you in case you are snowed or iced in.

I'm just looking over my program guide on my satellite box, and it shows that KMOV and KSDK are showing president fords services this morning, but fox 2 has their normal programming. I know they showed his state services on saturday night, so I'm wondering why you would show tyra banks and Racheal Ray instead of honoring our former president.

ok, This is for those who, like me were starting to think that this winter won't have a lot of snow...

Of course those who are under the age of 30 won't remember this, but take a good look at the winter of 1977-1978. an weak to moderate el nino, that peaked early, had a cold start, with a smaller storm, and then all out early spring weather for most of December and early January, then the end of january comes one of the biggest blizzards to hit parts of the midwest. literraly closing 175 miles of I-57. and now take a look at this winter thus far, A cold fall, with a big storm, and early spring like temps for most of december, and it looks like for part of january. Now I am not saying that there will be a blizzard on january 26-28, but the end of that winter brought a lot of cold and snow. google Illinois blizzard of 1978. You will get a good read.

Chris or Dave please correct me if I am wrong on any compairsions to this winter from 1978, as I wasn't even born yet.

Our nation's oldest living president has died.
Gerald Ford died tonight at the age of 93. Fox news just reported this within the hour.

may he rest in peace.