cardinals4ever's Blog

What a year already it has been and with only six weeks left I am sure some people are wondering how much more we could fit into it. Let me assure you there is plenty in store for the rest of 2008. Now with as much hype and excitement the rumors of this winters forecast are getting, I do like to read some people's pretty dead on predictions, to some complete guesses which is ok. I am willing for once to share my premature predictions (which is something I usually do not do). But before I do, I am not here to spark arguements, or challenge anyones ideas, I am here for one purpose: to have an educational discussion/s with fellow weather fanataics/professionals, and to share my knowledge with as many as possible.

Alright enough with the details. After looking at some past data, current treds, forecasts, models, and my own thoughts I have come up with a forecast for the 2008-2009 winter. Let me remind everyone do not consider this 100% acurate.

Rest of Nov. - Dec. -

Cold that has reminded us of winter will hang on for the rest of Nov. and all of Dec. only to see 2-3 days in the 60's. So bitter cold will do it for STL. Turkey Day looks like another raw bitter cold one. I would not be surprised to break some records for cold in Dec. and that really hurts the energy bills. Some sub-zero days and below zero nights should be looked forward to in Dec. Precip the rest of Nov. 95% rain. Chance snow may pop into the sky once or twice, nothing big. December is a much different story. Frozen precip will dominate 99%  of Dec. and there will be plenty of it. Making snow levels for December well above normal. Near record amounts. I am guessing the date for our first storm (4 in of frozen precip + to be the first weekend in Dec. somewhat of a guess, but some thinking was put into that date. I do see a fairly nasty icing event to happen in the month of Dec. thinking around the middle of the month. As for Christmas? Definately thinking a white one this year, but will it be snowing? HMMM. Thinking a monster storm right around the winter solstace. Keeping the fast pace in the jet stream, parades of lows will dominate all winter long, similar to last winter.

January-

An interesting month Jan. always is. this holds true in 2009 but will it be as interesting as Dec. HMMM. Temps will be hard to forecast in Jan. Cold will dominate for 2/3 of the month. But seeing a ease with a thaw late month. BUT A SHORT ONE. 3-5 days. Then 1 of the 2 Jan. storms will punch in with a ice-snow event. Bringing me to precip. Jan. looks to be again well above normal. Two storms, 1 being the stronger, during that warm strech of days we should see some rainy raw days. Very hard month to call. Could be completley wrong on this one.

February-

Another fast pace month rocks in with solid cold. All cold. As brutal as DEC. I am thinking pretty close. I am guessing 3-4 storms 2-3 major snow events. bringing yet another well above normal snowfall to STL. 2008-09 winter will wind up being the top 5 coldest and I am calling it..... most snowiest on record.

Extras: Snowpack will begin to develop. Something STL people haven't seen in 25-30years. That will bring the temps way down as we go into March, and we could see another March surprise snowstorm. Spring will set up as cool and wet, with early concerns for rivers, for the entire midwest should get pummeled by this winter. Again agree with me or not this is just an opinion with some factual backround. Lets have some fun with this winter where ever it takes us. I will be on either Chris or Dave's blog at least once a week untill things get interesting. Excuse any typos.

Thanks

Hello readers,

I have recently sounded alarm about my concern for record flooding along the area rivers (see previous posts) and that concern has not gone away. The pattern that caused all the flooding in the upper midwest is slowly showing signs of returning. That pattern was based upon a blocking Bremuda High sitting over the Southeast. This provides a road block in any pattern change for quite sometime. Then the jet stream got wrapped around around the high creating the track for low pressure systems to ride up and over the midwest, and we were right in the bullseye. That's not all. What about all the heavy rains they saw? What caused that? Well it is somewhat complicated so I will explain it as best  I can. Basically you get a cool front which is attatched to a Low and that front must ride perpindicular to the jet stream in order to move through. Well the reason they saw the heavy rains was because the front  were not  perpindicular to the jet they were parallel. This causes the front to sit over the same area or stall out. Now you have a cause for day after day rains, and with the moist air swinging around the backside of the High and slamming into the stalled front and contiously feeding heavier than normal rains.

What about now? Well the recent models show signs of the current NW pattern ending and going back to a rather wet and active pattern. Some models show favorable circumstances which could allow the Bremuda High to get situated again and cause the jets/frontal zones to stall out over the same flood areas that were affected 2-3 weeks ago. I see the new pattern surfacing around the middle of this week and lasting well into early July. This is not a welcome sound to flood victims. This week I think we could see rainfall amounts in the upper midwest push 4-8 inches possibly higher for weekly totals. As for the metro STL area  we could easily see 4 inches of rain (scattered/not everyone will see rain each day) if the slow moving thunderstorms/ Mesoscale Convection Systems or MCS's  sit over us for a while. There is a chance somebody could see a pop up storm each day after monday, and each day could bring it's fair share of rain with those storms. There is the possibilty of severe weather Tuesday, Thursday into Friday, and Saturday. Those storms will bring the works winds 60+ mph, hail: penny to quarter size+, intense lightning, and of course very heavy rains, possibly and inch an hour if the slow moving storms hit again like Saturday over STL.

Hydrologic Conditions:

The area rivers are running high and fast. Here is the latest crests and my own ideas:

Canton L+D- Hovering around 27ft.

Quincy- Hovering around 30.5ft.

Quincy L+D- Hovering around 29ft.

Hannibal- Rising to 29.6ft by Monday Morning

Saverton L+D- Hovering around 28ft.

Louisiana- Rising to near 27ft by Monday Night and will then hover.

Clarksville- Rising to near 27ft by Monday Night and will then hover.

Winfield- Rising to 36.7ft by Wednesday and will then hover.

Grafton- Rising to 29.5ft by Wednesday and will then hover.

Alton- Rising to 31.8ft by Wednesday and will the hover.

St. Louis- Hovering around 37.2ft.

Arnold- Hovering around 34ft.

Hardin- Rising to 34.5ft and will then hover.

St. Charles- Hovering around 27.5ft.

These crests and dates are bound to change by the end of the week if the forecasted rain falls both here and up north. The rivers could begin to climb once again. The Mississippi River forecast center or NCRF is worried for a Thursday/Friday event that could cause the Iowa and Wisconsin and Illinois tributaries to rise again. They also are looking for a midweek event over the Missouri River Basing or MBRF to cause a signifigant rise in the Missouri River from Omaha to STL. This could cause STL to rise again as well. When you think of it the new pattern spells trouble over the flood areas, and models show the pattern lasting well into July. On another note the flood of 1993 was just getting started at this time. Temperatures will climb a little each day and make it to the 90's by the weekends, and the humidity will jump up as well. Welcome to summer folks. Thanks,

Cards

As this flood continues to break records across the midwest, I will be creating a list of cities who have or will break or come close to record levels.

Iowa: Mason City, Finchford, Janesville, New Hartford, Cedar Falls, Waterloo, Vinton, Charles City, Des Moines, Perry, Marshalltown, Marengo, Cedar Rapids, Conesville, Anamosa, De Witt, Iowa City, Lone Tree, Columbus Jct., Wapello, Burlington, Gladstone, Keithsburg, Keokuk, Ottumwa, Keosauqua, St. Francisville, Jefferson, Shell Rock, Webster City, Colfax, Tracy, Oskaloosa, STILL GROWING.

Wisconsin: Baraboo, Rock Springs, Hillsboro, La Farge, Viola, Soldiers Grove, Gays Mills, Steuben, Afton, Newville, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Milford, Watertown, Raymond, Racine, Franklin, New Munster, Wisconsin Dells, STILL GROWING.

Illinois: STILL GROWING

Missouri: STILL GROWING

Nebraska: Rulo, STILL GROWING

Kansas: STILL GROWING

South Dakota: STILL GROWING

Setup: A giant slow-moving low pressure system will swing out of the rockies and high plains (where snow has fell and heavy rains) and into the upper midwest by Thursday. Now it appears the core energy will shift to the upper midwest and dump 4-8 inch rains across record flooding areas, and severe weather (quarter size hail, 50-60 mph winds, lightning, even an isolated tornado). Now what does this mean for us? Well as we go into Thursday night a cool front will drag in from the northwest and line up some storms from KC to Columbia. This front will take its time moving into our area, but should be in by the morning rush on Friday. Not sold on the threat for severe weather for us quite yet, but all could change as this high pressure scoots of to the east and wraps warm humid and unstable air to us. Just think very heavy rains early to mid morning. Then we quiet down with the chance of a pop up storm around noon. Then late afternoon is the prime time for heavy rains, maybe a scattered strong to severe storm which will bring the works. 2-3 inch rains for us are possible for us, and that does not help the flood situation anywhere around the midwest. To listen to my ideas about the flooding check out my previous post. Thanks.

Hello everybody,

I have been a student at OU for 2 years now getting a degree in meteorology, and have hopes to become a hydrologist.

This year has been one for the record books. Record temperatures, record snow and rain, record tornadoes, record stroms, and now record flooding.

Many of you remember the Great Flood of 1993, but some of your were to young to recall it. Here is a backround of the flood:

Rainfall was well above normal in the fall of 1992 for the STL area, this was a rare event since the fall is usually dry. Day long rains plagued the area. Then the winter came and we saw very heavy snows both here and up north. As spring rolled around that snow began to melt, keeping our rivers at there banks. Then in march of 1993, we saw giant slow moving low pressure systems that dumped daily heavy rains. This was all part of a giant southeastern high pressure called the Bremuda High, and wrapped around the high was a weather front, creating the running board for storms to move over the same areas, or called the "training" effect. Our rivers would rise out of there banks for the first time in April of 93, and when the pattern shifted to the high plains and upper midwest our rivers went down just below flood stage in may, but the ground stayed saturated. Then in with round 2 in June in July, the pattern expanded over the entire midwest, and we were setting records for rainfall everyday somewhere. Rivers were now at there highest flood levels ever. Levees began to fail, invading people homes and businesses, and sandbagging became a round the clock affair. The great flood was the costliest in history, 15-20 billion dollars, around 10,000 homes were completely destroyed, and 15 million farm acres were inundated.

It was a terrible event to watch and one I will never forget it. Now why do I believe this year compares with '93? Well, for starters, we have seen the snowiest season on record since 1993, and have seen a record wet March, wet april, and a very wet May. We are now a surplus of around 14.5 inches for the year, around the surplus of 1993. Now it is not just here I look at, but up north, because our nations two largest rivers flow from up there. Several states up there have broken record snow amounts this past winter, and have been slammed by heavy rains this spring. The Bremuda high once again comes into play here. The jet stream has been wrapped around it, creating day after day rains for several states.

Where do we come into play now?

Recently Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas have been getting pounded by daily rains and severe weather. The tributaries in these states are running high, very high in fact, and they are now flowing in to the Mississippi River, the Missouri River, and the Illinois River. These tributaries are breaking 93 levels left and right, and now they are moving into the bigger rivers. 25 Iowa Cities have set higher levels, 14 Wisconsin cities, 9 Minnesota cities, 5 Nebraska cities, and 15 Kansas cities have also. This looks to be a long event, because you can already tell the two rivers are on the rise. Flood warnings are blanketing the midwest and we are stuck with this pattern. STL and St. Charles will rise to moderate levels by weeks end, Hannibal, Quincy, and Canton will be at Major flood level by the end of the week, and they look to continue to rise. The more rain that falls the higher the rivers will rise. Please prepare now if you live in a flood area that was affected in 1993, becasue I believe we will come close to those levels by the end of June. I do not wish for this to happen, but I felt I should share my thoughts with people, so they would not get caught off guard. I base my forecast off of short term and long terms forecasting models, and also current data and past data. I also look at hydrographs created by NOAA, and I encourage you to look at them. Just go to the weather buffet and click on the flood stages button. Anyone wishing to find more information on the great flood of 1993 should google it up, and I thank you for listening and hope you share your thoughts.