RyanD's Blog

I'm not sure how much snow the weekend storm will bring but I do think we'll see some ice which isn't what any of us want to see considering the damage the last storm brought. Hoping for snow but thinking the cold air will take it's sweet time progressing into the warm flow like it typically does south of STL. I'm only 35-40 miles south of STL and the freeze line is typically 6-8 hours behind STL. Again, STL is usually on the "border" with a lot of these southern storms. At least it's January and there's finally a significant snow pack to the north which helps! Hopefully like Chris said at 5pm that this shouldn't be a repeat of the Nov. 30th storm. It'd be nice if the cold air arrived early and deepened enough that the southern low would track a bit farther south and bring the area a solid snow storm without rain or ice. With that said, did anyone else notice this article on accuweather? It appears Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi agrees that this new artic outbreak could be prolonged and lead to a very cold and active stretch of weather running right through February. I hope he's right. Here's what he stated on the site. If you want to view the accompanying video just follow the URL at the bottom of this post. --ALSO NOTE WHAT HE SAYS IN THE LAST PARAGRAPH--

--(State College, PA) Winter has finally made an appearance, with snow falling Tuesday into Tuesday night from the Great Lakes to the southern Appalachian Mountains. Arctic air moving into the Northwest Tuesday night will bring snow to Seattle and Portland, the first shot of true winter weather that will spread across the nation in the upcoming week.

The Alberta Clipper that moved through the East Tuesday has allowed more lake-effect snow to the lee of the Great Lakes while snow fell in the higher elevations of the central Appalachian Mountains. Cold air following the Clipper will push temperatures in the East down to near seasonable levels. Later in the week, the brief shot of winter will be replaced with more warm weather before a pattern change brings a real taste of winter to much of the nation.

Tuesday night, cold air will pour out of Western Canada into the Pacific Northwest, bringing overnight lows in Seattle and Portland down to within a couple degrees of freezing. The rain will turn to snow overnight; however, there will be little accumulation of snow along the coast.

Later this week, the coldest air will be centered over the Rockies and the northern Plains. Its arrival in the mountains will bring another round of snow to Denver and the Front Range on Friday, before the core of cold pushes to the south and east, likely arriving in the East by the middle of next week.

Unlike recent weather patterns when cold air has been quickly replaced by unseasonable warmth, the upcoming cold shot will remain in place across most of the nation through the latter half of January. Expert Meteorologist Bernie Rayno has additional information on the upcoming cold shot in the video to the right.

According to Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi, the weather from mid-January through mid-February could mimic the winters of 1957-58 and 1965-66. Those winters began with warm conditions before finishing with cold and stormy weather.

Bastardi says in a worst-case scenario, the country will experience a repeat of the winter of 1977-78. After a tepid start, that winter was remarkable for its cold and storms, including three powerful blizzards in the Northeast. "Those who think that winter 2006-2007 is going to remain mild are in for a shock. Winter is likely to come with a vengeance. A week from now, we'll start seeing truly cold air across much of the country, and we expect this change to last."

Bastardi believes that if the change in the weather pattern reaches its full potential, the onset of cold weather could result in "one of the top-five coldest 30-day stretches in the past half century."

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partn
er=news_central&traveler=0

Ryan