Redbird's Drive-by

The New York Times has an interesting article on the impact of warming temperatures on duck hunters. It is focused on hunters in Missouri. Missouri is widely regarded as one of the best duck hunting states. Whether you agree or not with global warming or climate change or any of that, you can't argue with the facts that conditions are changing and have been changing for several years. Is this one long trend? Is this another dust bowl type pattern? Or is this something more permenant?

 

I tend to fall in line with Dave Murray's expertise and position.

 

Here are two videos from Sunday & Monday duck hunts in NW Missouri near Squaw Creek National Wildlife Refuge.

 

Snow video from a Duck hunting Trip in NW Missouri on Nov. 20 & 21.

 

By Al Tompkins (more by author)

Buying Your Carbon-Neutral Footprint

This site for the Pop!Tech Carbon Initiative lets you calculate how many tons of carbon you pump into the atmosphere, then gives you the opportunity to contribute to groups that are doing something green. The amount you should give depends on how much carbon you contribute.

How accurate these calculators are. Isn't there a built-in incentive for the people who make these calculators to make my footprint as big as they can?

Capt. Chris Higgins invited me to bosses day at Scott Air Force Base.

Very Cool timelapse.
What's up with the clouds?

Weather has the traffic at Lambert stacked up. This place is buzzin' for all the wrong reasons.

Feb 27, 7:45 PM (ET)

By SETH BORENSTEIN

WASHINGTON (AP) - Forecasters warned Tuesday that a La Nina weather pattern - the nasty flip side of El Nino - is brewing, bringing with it the threat of more hurricanes for the Atlantic.

 

Officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the official end of a brief and mild El Nino that started last year. That El Nino was credited with partially shutting down last summer's Atlantic hurricane activity in the midst of what was supposed to be a busy season.

 

"We're seeing a shift to the La Nina, it's clearly in the data," NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said. La Nina, a cooling of the mid-Pacific equatorial region, has not officially begun because it's a process with several months with specific temperature thresholds, but the trend is obvious based on satellite and ocean measurement data, he said.

 

"It certainly won't be welcome news for those living off the coast right now," Lautenbacher said. But he said that doesn't mean Atlantic seaboard residents should sell their homes.

 

Forecasters don't know how strong this La Nina will be. However, it typically means more hurricanes in the Atlantic, fewer in the Pacific, less rain and more heat for the already drought-stricken South, and a milder spring and summer in the north, Lautenbacher said. The central plains of the United States tend be drier in the fall during La Ninas, while the Pacific Northwest tends to be wetter in the late fall and early winter.

 

Of special concern is west Texas which is already in a long-term drought, which during a La Nina will likely get worse, Lautenbacher said.

 

Historically, El Ninos and La Ninas are difficult to forecast, said National Center for Atmospheric Research senior scientist Michael Glantz, who studies how they effect humans.

 

"I don't see it as a useful forecast," Glantz said. "Every event since they've been looking at El Nino ... surprised scientists."

 

La Ninas tend to develop from March to June and reach peak intensity at the end of the year and into the next February, according to Vernon Kousky, NOAA's top El Nino/La Nina expert. La Nina winters tend to be warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest.

 

Andrew Weaver, a meteorology professor at the University of Victoria in Canada, said NOAA's forecast looks good because the signs of a brewing La Nina are apparent just below the ocean's surface.

 

"La Nina is the evil twin sister of El Nino, so it's good or bad depending on where you live," Weaver said. However, in general La Ninas do not have as costly effects on humans as El Ninos do, he said.

 

The last lengthy La Nina, from 1998 to 2001, helped cause a serious drought in much of the West, according to NOAA drought specialist Douglas Lecomte.

 

"There are winners and losers, people tend to concentrate on the losers," Lautenbacher said.

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On the Net:

NOAA's El Nino/La Nina page:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJ
O/enso.shtml

ZimmTV,

 

Here's my totally unofficial song of the day quiz. Can you name this tune?

 

 

Some say it is music to the ears.

I believe a healthy dose of skepticism is an important part of successful journalism. It is one of those things that can make you stop and wonder what's really going on here. It can lead to that next and next question - hopefully revealing a more complete view or understanding of the subject.

 

What troubles me is how many of the so-called best and brightest have forgotten their skepticism when it comes to Global Warming. Dave got me thinking about this after this Spring weather special last week. Predicting the future is tough stuff. Just ask Dave or Glenn or Chris when it comes to predicting climate 2 or 3 days away. Now try to predict it 50, 75, 100, 500 years in the future. That's what appears to be going on with the champions of Global Warming. I don't see much difference in going to a psychic. All their scientific data shows what has happened and allows them to offer a theory on what the future might hold. In my mind those in the media are not being skeptical. Instead they're simply parroting the views of those who have staked out their position on Global Warming based on politicized science.

 

I'm borrowing the term politicized science from Michael Crichton. He's received plenty of grief for his views on Global Warming put forth in his book, State of Fear. This part is interesting:

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Imagine that there is a new scientific theory that warns of an impending crisis, and points to a way out.

This theory quickly draws support from leading scientists, politicians and celebrities around the world. Research is funded by distinguished philanthropies, and carried out at prestigious universities. The crisis is reported frequently in the media. The science is taught in college and high school classrooms.

I don't mean global warming. I'm talking about another theory, which rose to prominence a century ago.

Its supporters included Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Winston Churchill. It was approved by Supreme Court justices Oliver Wendell Holmes and Louis Brandeis, who ruled in its favor. The famous names who supported it included Alexander Graham Bell, inventor of the telephone; activist Margaret Sanger; botanist Luther Burbank; Leland Stanford, founder of Stanford University; the novelist H. G. Wells; the playwright George Bernard Shaw; and hundreds of others. Nobel Prize winners gave support. Research was backed by the Carnegie and Rockefeller Foundations. The Cold Springs Harbor Institute was built to carry out this research, but important work was also done at Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Stanford and Johns Hopkins. Legislation to address the crisis was passed in states from New York to California.

---

I do not deny the earth's climate has warmed in the past decade. I also remember predictions for a coming Ice age in the 70's. The current rise in awareness of Global Warming has served to increase the reporting - not all of appears well-reasoned or responsible. Stories like this from the Christian Science Monitor that appear to link eating meat to global warming only diminish the overall argument. And further tell me that so far the only real effect of Global Warming is the loss of skepticism.

That scientific theory Michael Crichton references is eugenics.

The fine folks in the Redbird graphics conglomerate developed a new look for the old red bird. This is certainly more seasonal.

Building a better Snowman:

Dave's been talking about a COLD end to our winter since his winter weather special in November. I found this little item through the Drudge Report echoing what Dave's been saying - It looks like things are going to get COLD and stay that way for some time.

DJ UPDATE: US GAS: More Cold Weather Forecasts Boost Market
CALGARY (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures rose Tuesday, with traders covering positions on forecasts of persisting cold winter in the U.S. Midwest, likely increasing demand for gas as heating fuel.

Front-month February natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $7.597 a million British thermal units, up 27.8 cents.

The last time the market closed higher was Dec. 14 at $7.673/MMBtu. Weather forecasts released Thursday suggested that the cold weather expected to hit the U.S. Midwest between Jan. 28 and Feb. 1 will now persist longer than previously expected. One model run by meteorologists at MDA's EarthSat Weather Group in Rockville, Md., forecasts "the coldest outbreak in years" for large parts of the U.S. between Feb. 2-6.

The expectations were bringing strength to the gas market, which could test $8.00/MMBtu in coming days, said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Ill.

"The market will remain bullish in the near term until there's some evidence that the stubborn cold will shift," he said. "Until we get that, the price will hold up pretty well."

Meanwhile, private forecasters WSI Corp in Andover, Mass., predicted that temperatures from February through April will be warmer than normal. However, WSI said it would revise its forecast by week's because of the expected low temperatures in early February.

As well as the weather concerns, strength in the physical gas market is supporting the front end of the gas futures curve, while some strength is also spilling over into gas from crude futures, said a Calgary-based trader. Front-month crude futures settled at $55.04 a barrel, rising on cold weather and violence in Nigeria, after dropping to a 20-month low of less than $50 a barrel last week.

"Weather is the key to the strength in the gas market, but crude is having a little bit of an effect too," he said.

We had a big time on Sunday building a big snowman. Here are a couple of photos.







Click Building a Better Snowman to see a short video.

Starting to come down much harder. Looks great.

This was the scene Sunday.

Moving here from Texas, one thing we heard a lot of in the summer and fall was, are you ready for the winter? So far, this winter has been more like Texas, that what I imagined to be "traditional" or "normal" for St. Louis. I think as of Saturday night, Dallas had more snow recorded than St. Louis.

Well, that's about to change. My children couldn't be more ready for snow.

This also leads to more discussion of the crazy weather. Or is this the new normal? I am not one who believes in the man-made effect of global warming. I believe the earth goes through natural climate changes. I remember stories in the 70's proclaiming a coming ice age. Now it is doom and gloom going the other way. I don't dispute the fact that temperatures are rising. But we also can't dispute the fact that this isn't the first time the earth has recorded swings in average temperatures.

Now back to the snow.....