MarkGeldmeier's Blog

There's an interesting article in the August 2008 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (available online).  It discusses an experiment with building a small "smart" ballon (or tetroon) that contains weather monitoring equipment, GPS, and transmitting hardware.  The balloon is "smart" because it can adjust it's buoyancy so that it always floats along at a certain altitude (unlike traditional weather balloons that just go up and up until they explode...then they come down much faster!)

The article has a reference to a Businger & Johnson 1999 paper...which happens to be a science expedition that I was part of.  We spent a month in Tasmania, Australia (yep, as in the home of Tasmanian devils!)  My responsibilities including forecasting weather, launching smart balloons, running a computer model that predicted where the balloons would go, flying in a plane that tried to re-locate the balloons, and listening closely for the balloon signal as we closed in on them.  Several of the balloons immediately dropped into the ocean and sank at launch time, one stopped transmitting after 1 few hours, but we had several that were successfully tracked for more than 48 hours and for several plane flights.  In fact, their last heading was towards Antartica...perhaps they're sitting in a glacier somewhere, waiting to be discovered by a future generation!!

Anyway, coming back to the current article.  The authors suggest using Nanotechnology to build tiny "smart" balloons with inexpensive but robust hardware so they'd continue sending weather reports for weeks or even months.  One of the problems with our current forecast models is getting enough observation data (since weather stations are hundreds of miles apart).  Incomplete data means the forecast output is approximated...and therefore less accurate.  I can imagine millions of these "bubble weather stations" floating around in the lower atmosphere continuously feeding temperature, humidity, and pressure into our computer forecasting models.  The amount of input data would be increased a thousand-times! 

Adding up yesterday's rainfall at Lambert, it now looks like our year-to-date rainfall has surpassed the normal rainfall for an entire year!

Normal annual rainfall................38.75"

Rainfall so far in 2008.................38.96"

My favorite statistic....if we don't receive another drop of rain (or flake of snow) this year, we would be in an incredible drought by New Year's day....but the year would go down in the record books as "above average precipitation"!

July rainfall is nearly double the normal for the month....all months this year have been above normal, except for January and June.  Saint Louis rainfall records go back about 130 years...and the highest rainfall in any year is 54.97" in 1982.  We're definitely on pace to make a run at this record!

(This data is all from the NWS Saint Louis website and has not been verified with the National Climatic Data Center)

Scientific Assessment Captures Effects of a Changing Climate on Extreme Weather Events in North America

June 19, 2008

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research today released a scientific assessment that provides the first comprehensive analysis of observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes in North America and U.S. territories. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change previously evaluated extreme weather and climate events on a global basis in this same context. However, there has not been a specific assessment across North America prior to this report.

Among the major findings reported in this assessment are that droughts, heavy downpours, excessive heat, and intense hurricanes are likely to become more commonplace as humans continue to increase the atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

The report is based on scientific evidence that a warming world will be accompanied by changes in the intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extent of weather and climate extremes.

"This report addresses one of the most frequently asked questions about global warming: what will happen to weather and climate extremes? This synthesis and assessment product examines this question across North America and concludes that we are now witnessing and will increasingly experience more extreme weather and climate events," said report co-chair Tom Karl, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

"We will continue to see some of the biggest impacts of global warming coming from changes in weather and climate extremes,” said report co-chair Gerry Meehl, Ph.D., of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "This report focuses for the first time on changes of extremes specifically over North America."

The full CCSP 3.3 report, Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, and a summary FAQ brochure are available online.

Global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases, according to the report. Many types of extreme weather and climate event changes have been observed during this time period and continued changes are projected for this century. Specific future projections include:

• Abnormally hot days and nights, along with heat waves, are very likely to become more common. Cold nights are very likely to become less common.
• Sea ice extent is expected to continue to decrease and may even disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summer in coming decades.
• Precipitation, on average, is likely to be less frequent but more intense.
• Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions.
• Hurricanes will likely have increased precipitation and wind.
• The strongest cold-season storms in the Atlantic and Pacific are likely to produce stronger winds and higher extreme wave heights.

Here's the website...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080619_cl
imatereport.html

I just got done reading an interesting article in a weather journal.  The researchers examined the excessive heat wave of Paris, France in 2003…and used computer models to simulate what would happen if a similar heat wave occurred in other cities.  They looked at many locations…with the results showing St. Louis could expect the HIGHEST mortality rate of the cities studied!

In fact, they estimated 688 deaths would occur in St. Louis.  The mortality rate would be 8.3 per 100,000 – higher than New York’s 5.0, Detroit’s 1.1, and Philadelphia’s 1.7.

 

The study reported the European heat wave of 2003 was an unprecedented event that is extremely rare.  A similar event would not be expected to occur again for more than 1,000 years.  However, if a similar event occurred in St. Louis it would be devastating.  The authors state that St. Louis is disproportionately impacted by heat because of a large percentage of older, brick housing (stifling in a heat wave) and an older population with lower income.

 

Hopefully, we won’t have any big-time Heat Waves this summer!  But, we’ll need to remember to take things seriously if we’re faced with unprecedented heat!

 

You can read the full article.  It’s in the January 2008 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.  Or just google a portion of the title...“Analog European Heat Waves for U.S. Cities to Analyze Impacts on Heat-Related Mortality”.

The ground had barely stopped rumbling when the Fox2 Weather and News team started receiving questions and comments by e-mail.  The system was nearly overwhelmed by the response.  Here are the top 75 excerpts from e-mails received after the quake.  They are in order of receipt (the most recent were later in the morning after the strong aftershock).  Thanks to everyone for keeping us updated!!

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Name : Michelle
So, my two year old sleeps in the bed with me. At 415am this morning prior to the earthquake, he is up jumping all around, falling all over the place acting all strange and everything. I am trying to calm him down-threatening to throw him out of the window:) if he doesn’t settle down and let me get my last 1 1/2 hr. of sleep. Then all of a sudden he flops down as close to me as he can possibly get real oddly looking around. And what do you know, before the count of ten the earthquake starts and he is clinging on for dear life. After it is over and gets is little cry out and back to sleep he goes. Is it safe to say that humans can sense earthquakes too, or is that the weirdest thing.

 

Name : Carrie
I'd like to know if excess rain or moisture, has any influence on fault zones? I know Glenn has spoken a lot about the "air" having no affect, but what about the recent rain and/or flooding? Thanks so much.... We love Fox 2!!!

Name : Carol

 

My question that none of the media is covering is - if the quake measured 5.2 at the epicenter in Illinois - what is the actual seismic measurement of the quake in St. Louis 127 miles away?

 

Name : Ron
Hello, my clock is set with your clock. I was woke up with my bed shaking at 4:18 AM. So why do you say the earth quake was 4:30 AM?

 

Name : Gail
ya crack me up!!! at 4:37 am my bed shook
as it would in the summer if one of my dogs had a flea scratch! sleep easy tonight ya mid-west folks. Been in cal for the big bear and the rolling motion with dozens of after s. people camping out in the front yard . scared to go inside!   we are blessed. so it is not news!!!!!  always want to make it out more than it seems. good luck on that it was so funny to watch you roll back the barrel to confirm. i don’t want people to be scared from watching your reports!!  California Resident from 1990 – 1998

 

Name : Tanya
Is it possible for these earthquakes to be affecting the Electromagnetic Fields? I have had sea legs all day and can't keep my balance and I am not sure if it is just my imagination or if there is something to this. This only happens to me when I am around high EMFs. Just curious.

 

Name : Chris
I just wanted to let you know at 9:50a.m. my 9 month old lab, Quigley, started crying and making sounds and stayed right at my feet, he kept it up for about 15 minutes. Then at 10:15 my fireplace doors started to vibrate and within 15 seconds or so I felt the tremor. By then the dog was at the door wanting out. So I was made aware before anything happened. Not that I knew something was going to happen. Nothing was damaged, just thought I would share the story.

 

Name : Mary Jo
We felt the first quake around 4:41 AM and the latest after shock at 10:17 AM. Just wanted to let you know how far north the aftershock was felt.

 

Name : Jennifer
My brother in law said that he felt the one at 4:30 this morning. He has a room in my basement. I was just sitting here at my computer at about 10:15am this morning and My chair went jiggleing across the floor and my chemy was making creaking sounds.

 

Name : Sherill
about 10:18 this morning the house started to shake again just like 4:37a.m.
Is it possible to happen again?

 

Name : Judy
Did we just have another one?

 

Name : Joyce
Our 18 year old Dachshund sleeps with us and usually gets us up at 6:00 AM. This morning she was up at 4:00 and was very restless. My husband finally took her outside to go potty and then brought her back. She did not want to stay on the bed, moving, restless. I was holding her when the quake hit.
By the way, Allstate cancelled our earthquake insurance last September. I was under the impression that many insurance companies did the same.
I have never written you before so I may have done this incorrectly. Sorry.

 

Name : Pat
Could the recent flooding have seeped into the fault lines or created enough weight pressure to have caused the quake we experienced this morning?

 

Name : Patricia
Hello Glenn,  I called the Fox Hotline to provide information about the history of Southern Illinois earthquakes. You have reported several times this morning that the last quake there was in 1968.  This is incorrect and I have waited to hear a correction.
The quake of June 10, 1987 was centered at Olney, Il, a 5.1. It is listed under Historical Earthquakes in Illinois.  Google it at 1987 "Earthquake Illinois."  Would love to hear that my voice has been heard.  Thanks for your time.

 

Name : Faith
My name is Faith and I live in Florissant. This earthquake woke my 14 y/o son and I up at 4:40am. It was shaking our beds and dressers. It was so violent that I'm sure it moved my king size bed at least 2"! lol I am from San Diego so I have felt many earthquakes!

 

Name : Dorothy
About 4:35 a.m. this morning I was waking up and all of a sudden my bed started vibrating or slightly moving. It only occurred a few seconds. I laid there until 4:55 a.m. and then asked my daughter to check the computer and yes we had a tremor. Thought you would like to know it was in St. Charles also.

 

Name : Nancy
I felt the quake this morning but when I looked at my cable box clock the time said 4:34, my dresser was banging against the wall. No one has mentioned the event in 1983 when at midnight there was an earthquake or maybe it was a tornado and it happened so quickly when I turned on the TV right away no one was talking about because it took everyone by surprise. What that an earthquake or a tornado. I remember very clearly that it sounded like a train coming right at my house. thanks,

 

Name : Joyce
hey That Earth quake woke me up at 4"30 and certainly lasted more than 20 seconds, It shook my whole house, there was a loud rumble, anyway at 4:30 when it awoke me ,I went to the bathroom the toilet was shaking and it lasted at least a minute.

 

Name : Ron
Does the water table have anything to do with the earth quake? That was Browning's beliefs.

 

Name : Leslie
We love channel 2 new in the morning...but my husband’s job depends on the weather and we would like to know whether it is going to rain or be sunny today also....you all have been so involved with the earthquake which is wonderful but we do need to hear other things also.

 

Name : Chris
I live as far away as Wright City MO and this morning I felt the earth quake. We have a 3 story home and our bedroom is on the 3rd floor it woke me up. The house was shaking and rumbling. Our grandfather clock was making clanging noises.
I also was shaking thinking the house was going to tumble. I ran downstairs where my husband fell asleep watching Fox news and naturally he didn't feel a thing. Go figure.

 

Name : Crystal
I live in Bismarck MO and I was awakened @4:39am by my whole house shaking. It wasn't shaking hard but enough to wake me. It lasted for almost 35 seconds. I have a projection clock in my bdrm that puts the time and temp on the ceiling and it was a very long 35 sec. No damage, just some shaken up cats.

 

Name : Sonya
I wanted to THANK whoever set up the weather buffet. I found out about the earthquake before the news came on thanks to the information on the weather buffet.

 

Name : Lequila
where exactly was the start of the earthquake and was there an aftershock registered

 

Name : Darlene
Hi, My name is Darlene and I live in Jennings, MO. I was awakened by my bed moving this morning at or around 4:37 or so. I took a few seconds to compose myself to make sure that I wasn't dreaming and I could hear my perfume bottles, my windows, and my amoire chest rattling. All of a sudden, I screamed my son's name (while sitting up in the bed by now) and as he was running towards my room, I told him that we were having an Earthquake!!! He got in my bed and I ran to my front porch and I could hear my windows rattling and I touch the window and it all of a sudden stopped! My heart is still racing!!! I went back inside my house and I got the phone book to try and call Fox 2 to see if we actually had and Earthquake, but I was too nervous to even look up your phone number. My son and I turned on the TV and Cops was on, but no mention of an Earthquake whatsoever!! We started watching Cops!! As I sat there I wondered if my son thought that I was crazy or something!!! I even told me son a couple of times that I wasn't crazy, and I started making up excuses of what could have shaken up our house, then all of a sudden Glenn appeared with "Breaking News" of the Earthquake and I was so relived and so was my son!!

 

Name : Tony
If the epicenter has it at 5.4, how do you tell what it was for us in stl? It wouldn’t still be a 5.4 would it? it would seemingly be smaller as it got further away.

 

Name : Jenny
I live in a Loft in Downtown St. Louis. I am on the top (8th) floor, and I felt the earthquake this morning. I was sleeping, when my bed began shaking back and forth and woke me. I stood up and could feel my entire building shaking. I had never actually felt and earthquake before, so it was quite scary. I live in Vanguard Lofts, so I just had the scare of the fire not too long ago, and now I have to deal with earthquakes! What is the best thing to do during an earthquake if you live on the top floor of a tall building? Do you stay up there, or try and get safely outside?

 

Name : Rosie
I just wanted to let you know that the earth quake was felt here as well, We thought that it was strong gusty winds blowing against the side of the house.

 

Name : Jan
We felt the tremor here in Northeast MO after 4:30 this morning. We're 120 mi. north of St. Louis.

 

Name : Erica:
I was wondering if it was at all possible that we had a small earthquake about 4:30 this morning? I woke up to the coach shaking. It felt like someone was bumping into to wake me up. The next thing I knew the whole house started shaking and I ran and grabbed my son. My parents felt it at the other end of the house. So I just wanted to know if it was a small earthquake.

 

Name : Jennifer
Can you confirm earthquake activity in North St. Louis

 

Name : Sarah
I'm here in Vandalia IL. and it awoke the whole family. Very, very scary. I thought a Semi-truck hit our house. Lucky we have no damage that we can tell of.

 

Name : BARBARA
Hi, just wanted to let you know that we live in a mobile home in Hardin, Il and were awakened by the quake at about 4:35am, nothing broken just "A WHOLE LOT OF SHAKIN' GOIN' ON. Thanks, Barb

 

Name : A
was there an earthquake at 4:40 am

 

Name : Bethany
We live in St. Charles county.  The earthquake woke us from our sleep. All of the items on our shelves were shaking and rattling.

 

Name : Nora
We felt the earthquake in ST. Peters. that floor was moving, my bed was shaking and the furniture was moving also.

 

Name : Brandy
Good Morning - My name is Brandy. Roughly twenty minutes ago my house shook. It didn't last very long. It was definitely hard enough to give us a scare, shake the bed and wake my husband and knock a few little things off the counter. Did we just have an earthquake? Thank you for your time.

 

Name : Eric
I was sitting in my bunk bed in my dorm at Hannibal Lagrange college and my bed started shaking pretty hard but nothing to violent. At first I thought that my roommate was messing with me but he was sound asleep then I thought it must be people sneaking in again but I didn't hear anyone running. Was it a small earthquake or am I just really tired?

 

Name : Emily
It shook me out of bed here in Warrenton. Thank you for confirming I’m not crazy.

 

Name : Tammy
I live in Centralia IL. and at 4:35 am this morning i heard a loud boom here and my rocker was rocking sideways, and glasses in cabinet slid and clanged together. NO DAMAGE IS VISIBLE.

 

Name : Veronica
My sister and was woke this morning to the house shaking a bit. It lasted for a minute or so. We live out in South County, Jefferson Barracks Park. We called our parents who live in Soulard, and they too felt it. Was there a Quake showing up on radar?

 

Name : Sheila
i felt the earth quake about 4:30 4:45 this morning in belleville, il

 

Name : Kathy
I was getting ready for work when the "icecicles" on my Victorian lamp began to shake. Then I felt the floor rumble as if we had train tracks next to the house. No damage that I can see but we could really feel it!

 

Name : Carletha
we just had an earthquake here in florissant mo.

 

Name : Eric
This morning the whole house shock a t4:44am.I was just wonder if anyone else had experience this today. Thanks Eric

 

Name : Andrea
Oh my God I thought I was going crazy!! I was woke by my bed shaking and my dresser! I jump up and looked outside to see if the winds had pick up due to the approaching storms!! I checked on my children all were sleeping, my dog and cat took off running, so I knew I wasn't dreaming!! I could not go back to sleep and I turned the news on and there was Glenn saying, Yes this was a earthquake!! I live in Warrenton and it last for about 12 sec. Hope you get this Glenn thanks for keeping us up to date

 

Name : Joy
My husband and I were awakened at @ 4:37 a,m when our bed was shaking. I jumped out of bed and heard plaster falling inside our old walls. I ran downstairs and heard our china rattling. Do you know if this area had an earthquake then?
Thanks.

 

Name : Lori
I'm in Wood River, IL, and woke up from a dead sleep from my bed uncontrollably shaking. I was very scared, and my initial thought was "earthquake", but then I got nervous that someone was in my house, but thankfully no. No known damages at this point, but I wanted to share! I think the more East we are, the greater the shaking.

 

Name : Miles
I woke up at 4:40 ish this morning. . . My bed was shaking. I had thought I was dreaming, but then I sat up and my bed was like sitting on a hotel bed with the vibrating machine. I thought I was crazy so I stood up and walked to my window. I had a bottle on top of my entertainment center that was rocking back and forth pretty radically. Again thinking I was crazy I walked out of my room to find that my dad was at the bottom of the steps. he had thought I fell down. He said his bed shook as well. . . do you guys know if there was a earthquake. . . even if it was a minor one, or maybe fast and strong enough winds. the house literally felt like it was going to crash.

 

Name : Brenda
Just checking to see if anyone else felt the earthquake this morning at about 4:30 a.m.? It shook our house here in Jerseyville for about a minute. Thought something was going to fall off the walls and break but didn't.
Thanks

 

Name : Joey
To whom it may concern,
I want to make this brief because its 4 40 am and I'm typing this from my cell phone however my family and i were just awaken by what seemed like a jolt from the Missouri fault my line. We thought it might have been just us but a quick phone call to friends and a look outside reassured us that we weren't the only ones. What could this be? Is it the fault line?  Please let me know if you hear any more information about this

 

Name : N
At approximately 4:40am my house shook hard enough to see the water tremor in my glass and also wake my dog up off the floor. I was wondering if anyone else felt this too. I'm in Overland.

 

Name: Lisa
At around 4:30 am, I heard a loud noise and woke to my house shaking back and forth (yes, it sounds crazy!) In my mind, being half awake, I thought we were having a tornado so I ran upstairs to my daughter’s room to wake her up. I didn't have to wake her.  She was wide awake and said, "What was that?" I grabbed her and blankets and we went downstairs to our "tornado" safe place. She told me it was different than ever before and I thought the same thing. I literally felt my house shake back and forth. It lasted no longer than 30 seconds, but it was the strangest experience. I guess I need to know, did we have a slight earthquake this morning? We are in St.Charles, MO.

 

Name : Sheena
Has there been any seismic activity in the St. Louis area lately? This morning at approximate 4:42 am I awoke to my house shaking, my bird falling out of his hut in his cage, something in my kitchen falling, my puppy freaking out. Everything in my house rattling in general for at least a minute or so. Just wondering if it was a small earthquake.

 

Name : Theresa
Glen did we have an Earthquake this morning??????? My house shook so hard and loud it woke me and my 8 year old from a deep sleep.

 

Name : Dana
WAs that just and earthquake? I felt it around 438 and it might have lasted 20 seconds.........that was scary. I had been sound asleep and heard things shaking.
Just was wondering.  Anxious for the news.

 

Name : Melinda
Was there just an earthquake at 4:40am this morning in Shiloh/Belleville, IL?? I hope I'm not completely crazy, but out entire apartment complex was shaking and woke me up!!!!

 

Name : Djiana
Ok i need to know am i crazy about 4:37-4:50 am i was in my kitchen cooking and the counter began to shake then more shaking counter/house it felt like an earthquakeI stood still it didn't last long, could that have happen and how could i find out if there was quake activity in the area... South St. Louis city. Thanks

 

Name : Sandra
Did we just have an earthquake at or about 4:30 this morning... Our house shook so bad it woke us up ... just was curious and scared... thanks for your time... sandy

 

Name : Ron
advise if this area received reports of high winds or earthquake conditions in the last 15 minutes thk u

 

Name : Emily
I am at my mom and dad's in Effingham Illinois and around 4:40am we heard and felt the ground shake. I was just wondering if that was an earthquake they always taked about happening. I will keep on checking the web site and the tv for any news you may have.

 

Name : LARRY
CAN YOU TELL US IF WE HAD A MINOR QUAKWE ABOUT 4:30AM

 

Name : Ronnnessa
Did we just have an earth quake about 10 minutes ago. Our house was shaking and things were moving?

 

Name : Ray
Was just woken up but 4:30 am. by shaking. Thought at first that it was prob kids upstairs, but realized there was no stomping going on... just steady shaking that went on for bout 15-20 seconds. Was that a quake tremor i felt? Are we in a quake zone?

 

Name : Margaret
I live in house springs this morning around 4:30am Friday, April 18 the house started to shake. It lasted all of but 20 seconds, But I was wondering
Was that an earthquake or just my imagination?

 

Name : Geraine
About 4:40am this Friday morning the 17th our house was awakened by what seemed to be an earthquake. My 2 daughters, 8 and 3, as well as my wife were woken up. Was that what it was, an earthquake? Did anyone else report this? Please let me know and thank you.

 

Name : Diane
at about 4:38 this morning there was an earthquake at our home.

 

Name : Michael
This is for Dave Murray and the weather team. Our dogs wokes us up around 4:35 am this morning and our whole house and windows were shaking for about 15 seconds. Did we have a small earthquake??

 

Name : Becky
Was that just an earth quake???? It woke our entire court of families up, from infants to adults just now. Wow is all I can say. What does this mean?

 

Name : Colby
I was wondering if you have felt or heard anything about an earthquake in this area around 430. My mom and I were awakened during a dead sleep and felt our house shaking. I was just wondering since the new madrid fault is somewhat close by.
Thanks so much for your help!

 

Name : Jennifer
I just felt an earthquake at 4:30 am. I live in midtown.

 

Name : DJ
Friday April 18, @ 4:37am... Did we just
feel an earthquake in Mo.? The whole building shook for for about 10 seconds.

 

Name : Kevin
just Felt The Ground Shake For About 40 Sec.

 

Name : K
DID WE JUST HAVE AN EARTH QUAKE...OUR WHOLE HOUSE WAS SHAKING.

 

Name : Christy
Did we just have an earthquake?

 

Name : Ryan
Hello Fox weather team!
At 4:37 or 4:38 this morning, I was sitting at the computer, and all of the sudden my apartment shook! I thought a really strong wind came through or something, but I realized it had to be an earthquake of some sort!!! Am I crazy? I swear, the only thing I've had to drink was a Diet Pepsi! Would love to hear some closure, for my sanity! Thanks so much, and have a wonderful morning:)

Name: Trish
Please, we need your help. We just got woke up to our houses being shook and items falling off the walls. Was this an earthquake ?? Can you please Check into this.

 

Name : Christy
DID WE JUST HAVE AN EARTH QUAKE...OUR WHOLE HOUSE WAS SHAKING

There are at least two other blogs about the comet...with Chris providing a sky chart and Dave's providing some background. Over the last week, I've been able to see it on 3 nights....with the naked eye, with binoculars and with a small telescope. I'm hoping that others might give some feedback on whether they've looked or not. Here are the results of my observations...

Viewing Conditions: Obviously it needs to be clear. But it's even better when it's "crystal clear". Several of the nights when the wind was light and it was cold and frosty outside were great. You can tell right when you walk outside and look up. The other concern is the moon. That last two weeks have provided moon-less nights...but it's on the way back. Thursday night might be the last good opportunity.

Location:  In our area, it would be real close to directly overhead at 11pm. I've gone out to look from 7pm to 10pm. At that time, it’s in the northeastern sky...rising higher as the evening goes on. If you know the constellations...look for Cassiopeia (the "W") which is generally straight up (slightly North or Northwest), and Auriga (which is sort of a Pentagon shape but with one bright star). Perseus is halfway in between.  Spend a few minutes looking up in the sky (which is not very dark at my house in mid-county) and let your eyes get used to the dark.  Soon you'll notice the "fuzzy spot" in the sky. 

Now that I know where it is, I can walk outside and spot it fairly quickly.  But using binoculars provides more detail.  The fuzzy area is fairly large and has been growing over the last few weeks.  One side is brighter than the other.  I've also looked at it with a small telescope...but didn't see much more than what you can see through the binoculars.  There aren't that many opportunities to see a comet that's visible to the naked eye -- so take a minute a check it out!

On both Saturday and Sunday evening, just before sunset -- I heard Cicadas singing.  The warm weather got them going...but I think this is the first time I've heard them still singing in October.  It's interesting how the temperature affects the activity of insects.

This year I heard the first Cicada around June 15th.  For me they define the beginning of the "dog days" of summer.  Cicadas sing during the day and seem to get louder as the temperature gets hotter.  The activity peaks in late July....and I think most of them don't live much longer than a few weeks after that.

I heard the first Katydid on June 30th....a warm and humid evening.  Katydids sing during the night, but also seem more active when the temperature is higher.  However, instead of singing louder...they throw in some extra "syllables" (singing "Ka-ty-did-it" instead of "Ka-ty-did" or just "Ka-ty").

In late summer evenings, it's interesting to listen for the moment when the Cicadas stop and the Katydids start up.  It usually happens about 30 minutes after sunset...with the "change-over" occuring in just a few minutes.  And it doesn't matter if you live in the city or the country....both of these insects are plentiful in urban and rural environments.

Crickets are also affected by the temperature....singing more slowly as the temperature cools.  For those of you that remember the old "Dave Murray's Almanac"....there was always a formula to estimate the temperature by counting cricket chirps.  I always thought this would be a good elementary school science project....plot the number of cricket chirps compared to the temperature each evening for a couple of weeks.  (there's still time to do this!)

As our 80 degree days now seem to over....we probably won't hear another Cicada for the next 8 months...but crickets and a few Katydids can still be heard.  At least until the first freeze or heavy frost -- which places winter's mantle of silence on the summer chorus!

You might not have been up at 5:36 this morning...but when you did get up the sun was higher in the sky than any other morning this year.  So how come the earliest sunrise occurs today and not next week on the Summer Solstice (June 21)...which is the day of the most daylight?  I think it's one of the strangest astronomical "mysteries"!

Go ahead and take a look at the Sunrise/Sunset charts for St. Louis.   You can find this on the web...or check out an old copy of "Dave Murray's Almanac"!  The earliest sunrise appears to be this week, while the latest sunrise is not until the last few days of June (a week after the Solstice).  It does work out that the longest "day" is on the 21rst...but why don' the sunrise and sunset matchup??

It's all about orbital mechanics.  The tilt of the earth (which is the same thing that gives us the seasons), the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit about the sun (it's not a circle), and the fact that the Earth goes faster in portions of the orbit around the sun.  It also depends on where on the Earth you're watching the sunrise/sunset.  Put them together and you get the position of the sun in the sky which is different almost everyday.  In fact, if you could take a picture of the sun in the sky at the same time everyday for an entire year...you would get a picture that looks like a lop-side "figure-8".  This figure is called the "analemma".  This figure used to be printed on old globes (it was useful for ancient navigation).  You can find more information on wikipedia and other sites...including pictures taken as described above.

Okay, what does this have to do with our original mystery?  This might be difficult to picture.  But the analemma is tilted depending on your latitude on Earth.  So, in St. Louis imagine a tilted "figure-8"...halfway between straight up and on it's side.  The exact top and the exact bottom are the longest and shortest days.  But because of the tilt, the portion of the figure that is closest (of furthest) to the horizon is slightly off from the exact top and bottom.....hence the 7 days where the earliest sunrise and latest sunset varies from the Solstice.  At the winter solstice there is a similar affect...but the difference is more like 14 days.  The Earth is actually closer to the Sun at that time and moving faster in it's orbit!

So, while you're enjoying the long days of summer -- consider how the complex movements of the Earth and Sun are giving us a subtle yet amazing show!

Dave went to Hawaii in April and I was there in March. Being back in Hawaii reminded me of some of the interesting features of weather in the "sub-tropics". Here's one of them;

In the mid-latitudes (which includes Missouri and Illinois), the prevailing winds are West to East, and our weather systems travel generally from West to East. In the sub-tropics, things move in the opposite direction! The "Trade Winds" in Hawaii blow out of the ENE and are very consistent. The strength of the "Trades" might vary, but 8 out of 10 days will include the wind from this direction.

Because the wind is almost always blowing from the same direction, there are several local features that result from the constant breeze. For example, trees always "lean" the same direction and the volcanic cones are higher on the west side (since the material was blown this way when it erupted). The island of Maui is shaped like a "dumb-bell", with two mountain peaks connected by a valley in the middle. The island is aligned such that the mountains funnel the Trades through the interior valley section. The southern mountain, Hale’akala, is much taller, so the affect is that winds accelerate across the middle of the island and then spin around on the "leeward" or down-wind side of the island. This nearly constant spinning mass of air has been called the "Maui Vortex". From the town of Kula on the western slope of Hale’akala, you can watch the low clouds slowly spinning like a huge whirlpool. Sometimes, the smoke from burning sugarcane fields will drift over the ocean but then circle around and move back over the island.

So the next time your lying on Maui’s Makena Beach and you notice that the sky is spinning. Sure it might be too many Mai Tai’s! But then again, it just might be the Maui Vortex!

*I was searching the internet for a good satellite loop that would illustrate this, but haven’t yet found the right resolution and animation. If someone can find a possible site – please let me know!

Hey everyone!  As I watched the Oscars last night, I thought I'd share my story about meeting Al Gore.....

In 1991, I was living in Washington D.C....my wife was working for Senator Danforth and I was thinking about applying for grad school.  My wife saw an announcement for a Senate Hearing on "Global Climate Change" and thought I'd be interested.  Sure enough, I saw that several professors from MIT would be attending...and since I was planning to apply to MIT...I thought this would be a good chance to meet face-to-face.  I expected a big production, but this Senate Hearing was held in a small room...with only 15-20 people.  There were about 8 professors and researchers and about the same number in the audience which included a few reporters and people "off the street" like me.  Al Gore, a Senator at the time, was the moderator of the meeting.  I was able to shake hands and talk briefly with everyone there.  I didn't spend much time talking with Al (I was trying to impress the professors) but I was surprised at his knowledge of the Earth's climate.  I guess I was expecting the stereotypical politician -- but he definitely understood what was being discussed and was quite passionate about the topic.  Anyway, that's my story! By the way, I never did get accepted to MIT!!!

-Mark 

There were numerous reports of a bright light in the sky this evening across the metro area and in fact much of Eastern Missouri and West Central Illinois. From the reports, it sounds like a "Fireball"...which is an especially bright meteor...was what graced our skies. I'm pasting below some questions and answers about Fireballs - I will also post a collection of the viewer reports as a separate posting/

*** Below is courtesy of the American Meteor Society website ***

1. What is a fireball? What is the difference between a fireball and a bolide?

A fireball is another term for a very bright meteor, generally brighter than magnitude -3 or -4, which is about the same magnitude of the planet Venus in the morning or evening sky. A bolide is a special type of fireball which explodes in a bright terminal flash at its end, often with visible fragmentation.

If you happen to see one of these memorable events, we would ask that you report it to the American Meteor Society, remembering as many details as possible. This will include things such as brightness, length across the sky, color, and duration (how long did it last), it is most helpful of the observer will mentally note the beginning and end points of the fireball with regard to background star constellations, or compass direction and angular elevation above the horizon.

The table below will aid observers in gaging the brightness of fireballs:


Object magnitude
----------------------------
Polaris +2.1
Vega +0.14
Sirius -1.6
Bright Jupiter -2.5
Bright Mars -2.8
Bright Venus -4.4
1st Quarter Moon -10.4
Full Moon -12.6
Sun -26.7

2. How frequently do fireballs occur?

Several thousand meteors of fireball magnitude occur in the Earth's atmosphere each day. The vast majority of these, however, occur over the oceans and uninhabited regions, and a good many are masked by daylight. Those that occur at night also stand little chance of being detected due to the relatively low numbers of persons out to notice them.

Additionally, the brighter the fireball, the more rare is the event. As a general thumbrule, there are only about 1/3 as many fireballs present for each successively brighter magnitude class, following an exponential decrease. Experienced observers can expect to see only about 1 fireball of magnitude -6 or better for every 200 hours of meteor observing, while a fireball of magnitude -4 can be expected about once every 20 hours or so.

3. Can you see fireballs in daylight, and will a fireball leave a trail?

Yes, but the meteor must be brighter than about magnitude -6 to be noticed in a portion of the sky away from the sun, and must be even brighter when it occurs closer to the sun.

Fireballs can develop two types of trails behind them: trains and smoke trails. A train is a glowing trail of ionized and excited air molecules left behind after the passage of the meteor. Most trains last only a few seconds, but on rare occasions a train may last up to several minutes. A train of this duration can often be seen to change shape over time as it is blown by upper atmospheric winds. Trains generally occur very high in the meteoric region of the atmosphere, generally greater than 80 km (65 miles) altitude, and are most often associated with fast meteors. Fireball trains are often visible at night, and very rarely by day.

The second type of trail is called a smoke trail, and is more often seen in daylight fireballs than at night. Generally occurring below 80 km of altitude, smoke trails are a non-luminous trail of particulate stripped away during the ablation process. These appear similar to contrails left behind by aircraft, and can have either a light or dark appearance.

4. I saw a very bright meteor. Did anyone else see it, and to whom should I report it?

The American Meteor Society (AMS) collects fireball reports from throughout North America, the Caribbean, and the Pacific islands for use by our organization and other meteor organizations. Persons who have seen a bright meteor event are encouraged to report their sighting to us. If multiple sightings of a single event can be grouped together, it is sometimes possible to determine the actual trajectory of the object in question.

The easiest way to report a fireball to us is to utilize our on-line form, located at our Internet Web site. This site is located at http//www.amsmeteors.org/fireballs.html.

Information on reporting fireballs is also provided by the International Meteor Organization Fireball Data Center (FIDAC). It can be located on the web at: http://www.imo.net/fireball/index.html.

5. Can fireballs appear in different colors?

Vivid colors are more often reported by fireball observers because the brightness is great enough to fall well within the range of human color vision. These must be treated with some caution, however, because of well-known effects associated with the persistence of vision. Reported colors range across the spectrum, from red to bright blue, and (rarely) violet. The dominant composition of a meteoroid can play an important part in the observed colors of a fireball, with certain elements displaying signature colors when vaporized. For example, sodium produces a bright yellow color, nickel shows as green, and magnesium as blue-white. The velocity of the meteor also plays an important role, since a higher level of kinetic energy will intensify certain colors compared to others. Among fainter objects, it seems to be reported that slow meteors are red or orange, while fast meteors frequently have a blue color, but for fireballs the situation seems more complex than that, but perhaps only because of the curiousities of color vision as mentioned above.

The difficulties of specifying meteor color arise because meteor light is dominated by an emission, rather than a continuous, spectrum. The majority of light from a fireball radiates from a compact cloud of material immediately surrounding the meteoroid or closely trailing it. 95% of this cloud consists of atoms from the surrounding atmosphere; the balance consists of atoms of vaporized elements from the meteoroid itself. These excited particles will emit light at wavelengths characteristic for each element. The most common emission lines observed in the visual portion of the spectrum from ablated material in the fireball head originate from iron (Fe), magnesium (Mg), and sodium (Na). Silicon (Si) may be under-represented due to incomplete dissociation of SiO2 molecules. Manganese (Mn), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu) have been observed in fireball spectra, along with rarer elements. The refractory elements Aluminum (Al), Calcium (Ca), and Titanium (Ti) tend to be incompletely vaporized and thus also under-represented in fireball spectra.

6. Can a fireball create a sound? Will the sound occur right away, as you watch the fireball, or is their some delay?

There are two reported types of sounds generated by very bright fireballs, both of which are quite rare. These are sonic booms, and electrophonic sounds.

If a very bright fireball, usually greater than magnitude -8, penetrates to the stratosphere, below an altitude of about 50 km (30 miles), and explodes as a bolide, there is a chance that sonic booms may be heard on the ground below. This is more likely if the bolide occurs at an altitude angle of about 45 degrees or so for the observer, and is less likely if the bolide occurs overhead (although still possible) or near the horizon. Because sound travels quite slowly, at only about 20 km per minute, it will generally be 1.5 to 4 minutes after the visual explosion before any sonic boom can be heard. Observers who witness such spectacular events are encouraged to listen for a full 5 minutes after the fireball for potential sonic booms.

Another form of sound frequently reported with bright fireballs is "electrophonic" sound, which occurs coincidentally with the visible fireball. The reported sounds range from hissing static, to sizzling, to popping sounds. Often, the witness of such sounds is located near some metal object when the fireball occurs. Additionally, those with a large amount of hair seem to have a better chance of hearing these sounds. Electrophonic sounds have never been validated scientifically, and their origin is unknown. Currently, the most popular theory is the potential emission of VLF radio waves by the fireball, although this has yet to be verified.

7. How bright does a meteor have to be before there is a chance of it reaching the ground as a meteorite?

Generally speaking, a fireball must be greater than about magnitude -8 to -10 in order to potentially produce a meteorite fall. Two important additional requirements are that (1) the parent meteoroid must be of asteroidal origin, composed of sufficiently sturdy material for the trip through the atmosphere, and (2) the meteoroid must enter the atmosphere as a relatively slow meteor. Meteoroids of asteroid origin make up only a small percentage (about 5%) of the overall meteoroid population, which is primarily cometary in nature.

Photographic fireball studies have indicated that a fireball must usually still be generating visible light below the 20 km (12 mile) altitude level in order to have a good probability of producing a meteorite fall. Very bright meteors of magnitude -15 or better have been studied which produced no potential meteorites, especially those having a cometary origin.

8. Can a meteorite dropping fireball be observed all the way to impact with the ground?

No. At some point, usually between 15 to 20 km (9-12 miles or 48,000-63,000 feet) altitude, the meteoroid remnants will decelerate to the point that the ablation process stops, and visible light is no longer generated. This occurs at a speed of about 2-4 km/sec (4500-9000 mph).

From that point onward, the stones will rapidly decelerate further until they are falling at their terminal velocity, which will generally be somewhere between 0.1 and 0.2 km/sec (200 mph to 400 mph). Moving at these rapid speeds, the meteorite(s) will be essentially invisible during this final "dark flight" portion of their fall.

9. Are meteorites "glowing" hot when they reach the ground?

Probably not. The ablation process, which occurs over the majority of the meteorite's path, is a very efficient heat removal method, and was effectively copied for use during the early manned space flights for re-entry into the atmosphere. During the final free-fall portion of their flight, meteorites undergo very little frictional heating, and probably reach the ground at only slightly above ambient temperature.

For the obvious reason, however, exact data on meteorite impact temperatures is rather scarce and prone to hearsay. Therefore, we are only able to give you an educated guess based upon our current knowledge of these events.

Okay, I'm not actually on the cover...but it's as close as I'll probably ever get!!

What is BAMS? It's the "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society", a professional weather journal that is published monthly and sent to all AMS (American Meteorological Society) members.

The November issue has a picture of a large balloon being launched by two scientists in the middle of a field, with the title, "NOAA's Smart Balloons Keep Up with the Weather". The scientist on the left is Dr. Businger. He is one of two professors that I worked with while in Hawaii. The article describes how these "smart balloons" were used in several atmospheric chemistry experiments. I was lucky enough to participate in one of these experiments.

It was called "ACE-1" and was held near Tasmania, Australia. About 50 researchers, along with two ships and one plane, gathered for a month-long study. I was assigned two duties; 1) forecasting weather during the experiment, and 2) riding on the C-130 aircraft while monitoring the "smart" balloons that had been launched from a nearby ship. The balloons were outfitted with GPS, weather instruments, and a transmitter. Unlike traditional ballons, these were equipped with a self-adjusting mechanism to allow them to stay at a constant altitude. The idea was that the balloon would travel along and identify an "airmass". The airplane was then used to find the balloon (my job) and sample the air over several days to see how it changed with time. So, I would predict where the balloon should be...listen for the balloon's transmission...and then give coordinate changes to the pilot -- occasionally this actually worked as planned! Once we found the balloon, we'd fly circles around it. My favorite was flying just 300 feet above the ocean surface!!

If you've read this far and you're still curious! The article can be accessed online...

http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-toc&iss
n=1520-0477&volume=87&issue=11

There's a picture of the C-130 aircraft (Fig. 5), and that's my map of the balloon and flight tracks shown in Fig. 6.

What do you think?
-mark

Yesterday the broken tree limbs were picked up by the yard waste collection...and the sound of generators began to fade. I thought this would be a good time to jot down my memories of "Ice Storm 2006". Lots of things have already been posted, but feel free to add your favorite memory!

Wednesday, Nov. 29th...it was 72 degrees (the 7th day in a row with temps above 60), however the end was near! That evening the arctic cold front arrived and temperatures began to plumment. There was a possibility of thunderstorms, but we mostly had steady, moderate rainfall. By Thursday morning, temps were in the mid-30's. I noticed small pieces of ice inside the raindrops by 9:15am....and by Noon, sleet was the predominate precipitation. Moderate to heavy sleet continued thru the late afternoon hours all along the Hwy. 44 corridor. By then temps were down into the mid-20's. We were wondering when the sleet would changeover to snow...but what happened next was interesting and disasterous!

A "second" low pressure system developed and moved up from southwestern Missouri. This "wave" in the atmosphere helped contribute to additional instability...and a warming in the atmosphere ahead of it. Temps climbed almost 5 degrees between 5pm and 9pm, and the sleet changed back to freezing rain -- which fell at a moderate intensity. The ice accumulated rapidly on tree limbs. The power went out at my house around 8:45 pm, accompanied by a bright, green flash. I went outside and listened to the occasional "pop" and "crack" of tree limbs breaking and ice shifting. Not long after, there was an even brighter flash -- followed by the rumble of thunder! With no lights, I went to bed with the blinds open and watched the sky show. Muted green flashes, some distant, some near, reflecting off the clouds and filtered by the rain, sleet and fog.

The next morning, I looked outside and saw a beautiful but eerie landscape. Two inches of icy sleet, decorated by numerous fallen branches and limbs with a fresh covering of 1-2" inches of fresh, soft snow on top. It was our first snow of the season...and what a storm to start the winter! Our power had come back on overnight, but many in the Metro were not so lucky....with over 500,000 customers suffering power outtages. I drove through Kirkwood that morning, intent on breakfast and the extent of the damage magnified. It seemed everyone had branches and limbs down...not as many entire trees -- like during the summer -- but instead more widespread damage. I could also see wires down or damaged....nearly every block. My breakfast in Kirkwood would not happen -- the entire business district was without power.

My mother-in-law was one of those without power, and she came to our house for dinner and to spend the night. The dinner table discussions centered around the power outtages and whether to turn off and drain the water or to leave it running at a trickle. On Saturday, the sun was out and the ice began to melt. It was a beautiful day, cold but with light winds and lots of sunshine. I spent the day outside enjoying the weather...it seemed the worse was over. By evening, the power was back on at my mother-in-law's house...so she packed up and headed home. However as the sun set, I noticed it was much darker in our neighborhood. It turns out that the slight melting shifted the weight in the trees...and many more problems developed.

Sunday morning I finally made it to breakfast at McDonald's in Kirkwood. The talk was all about the power outtage. Bev, one of the employees, said her house was still out...and the customer in front of me said she was also without. There were a lot of people in line...many without power, and there was definitely a feeling of camraderie...as if we were all together in this modern-day "disaster". Back at home, one of my neighbors explained how he was running his furnace from an extension cord provided by the neighbor next door -- how crafty! Our house must be on the corner of an electrical grid or distribution line. We had power, but looking down to the West and across to the North -- it was dark. I felt guilty that our Christmas lights were shining brightly -- the reindeer on the lawn nodding as if to say, "yes, we have electricity to burn!"

On Monday, our house became the "Geldmeier's Internet Cafe". I often work at home and just need a good internet connection to get things accomplished. One of our neighbors also works at home but his power was out. So he packed up his laptop and setup office in our dining room. With electricity, a phone, and wireless internet connection -- he was full-speed ahead! Meanwhile, two other neighbors without power asked if they could check e-mail etc. If only we'd start serving gourment coffee!!

Late afternoon on Tuesday, the "calvary" arrived. A convoy of 8 trucks...tree trimmers, pole diggers, and cage lifters came roaring down the street. Within a few hours, they used a crane to lift a tree off a set of wires, dug a new hole, replaced a broken pole, re-wired the connections and power was restored!

By the weekend, warm temperatures melted the rest of the ice and snow. The tree debris was gathered in piles and this week many municipalities started their collections. What a way to start the winter!

It might be snow that's falling late tonight (Wednesday), but this weekend...the sky will be falling! Okay, maybe not the whole sky...but thousands of pieces of space dust leftover from a passing comet. Yes, I'm an astronomy geek, but this is cool stuff!

I watched the Leonids in 2002, and counted 226 meteors in 1 hour!! That's my personal hourly record...and not as many are expected this year -- but you never know how much junk is floating around space!

The 2006 Leonid shower will peak on Saturday night / Sunday morning. You can expect to see a few large and bright "earth-grazers" during the evening...then the greatest amount of activity in the early morning hours 4am - 6am (Sunday the 19th).

The best way to look for meteors is to find a dark open field, lay down on the ground or a lounge chair and watch the sky (look in the East but also up high). Dress twice as warm and you think you need to! Plan to watch for at least 30 minutes to an hour. There will be periods of nothing and then some bursts of activity.

Of course, clouds would be a problem...so let's hope for clear skies!

-mark