MarkGeldmeier's Blog

I just got done reading an interesting article in a weather journal.  The researchers examined the excessive heat wave of Paris, France in 2003…and used computer models to simulate what would happen if a similar heat wave occurred in other cities.  They looked at many locations…with the results showing St. Louis could expect the HIGHEST mortality rate of the cities studied!

In fact, they estimated 688 deaths would occur in St. Louis.  The mortality rate would be 8.3 per 100,000 – higher than New York’s 5.0, Detroit’s 1.1, and Philadelphia’s 1.7.

The study reported the European heat wave of 2003 was an unprecedented event that is extremely rare.  A similar event would not be expected to occur again for more than 1,000 years.  However, if a similar event occurred in St. Louis it would be devastating.  The authors state that St. Louis is disproportionately impacted by heat because of a large percentage of older, brick housing (stifling in a heat wave) and an older population with lower income.

Hopefully, we won’t have any big-time Heat Waves this summer!  But, we’ll need to remember to take things seriously if we’re faced with unprecedented heat!

You can read the full article.  It’s in the January 2008 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.  Or just google a portion of the title...“Analog European Heat Waves for U.S. Cities to Analyze Impacts on Heat-Related Mortality”.