Doppler's Blog

Severe weather to threaten the Midwest again as an impressive storm takes aim on the central states.  This storm will basically be a cut off low. That means the low track will be in the great lakes region which for us means warm sector. Which in the end will spell thunderstorms with the possibility of some of those turning severe.  Most of the ingredients are coming together for a fairly good size severe wx event. Good veering of the winds, dew points, and strong cold front will be the focusing magnesium for convection which could be severe.  There is however one thing that will be lacking and that’s the gulf moisture.  It really hasn’t had time to recharge itself but there will be some moisture working itself into this strong storm system…..  The main threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and of coarse can’t rule out isolated tornadoes in the early stages of the event before the storm mode turns into a linear mode with an impressive squall line racing across the region along a fast approaching cold front. Not real worried about the potential for flooding due to the nature of the storms (fast movers). Maybe some flash flooding, but no long term event. Prime time for severe weather across the region is 10am through 7pm on Friday.  Now there is still some question on the destabilization of the atmosphere on Friday.  The past two severe weather threats have been busts due to early morning convection hanging around and not allowing the sun to come out. This scenario could in fact happen again. However if we can get that sun out then we’ll be in business.  Might be a good day for some storm chasing.  As of now the SPC still has us in a slight risk area, hopefully it upgraded to a moderate risk. Comments are welcomed. More on this event later.