Weather or Not

Time for a new blog...and a little weather leason.  Today's pattern and the mechanics that are generating the widespread rain in the central plains are very interesting...and text book cases of jet stream generated precipitation.  This type of pattern becomes more importan in the cool/winter season because we often get our biggest snows when this type of jet structure is present. 

The jet stream this time of year is dropping down from its summer pearch up around 200mb towards its winter level of 300mb.  So I've used the 250mb chart as the "transition" chart for the fall.  It picks up two very nicely defined jet cores (maxes) today.  A jet max can be sliced up into 4 primary quadrants...front right, front left, rear right, rear left.  The key ones to look at are the right rear and front left.  These are the quadrants where the jet enduces large scale upward motion.  Its very complicated and I dont want to bog you down with why...just trust me...that's the way it works.  So when forecasting, I always look for the "RRQ" or "FLQ" of the jet because thats where the weather problems usually occur. 

Today offers an awesome example.  We have two jet maxes lined up one behind the other from the southern Rocky Mountains up into the Great Lakes.  The position of the RRQ for both of these is a place to look for significant large scale upward motion... the kind you would need to generate a large area of precip.  The radar backs up what you would expect to see.... a long fetch of precipitation, behind the front in the cooler air...that is being driven largely by the mechanics within the RRQ of both those jet maxes.  It's always awesome when mother nature gives us text book examples ... mostly because the weather rarely follows the text book as closely as it is today.  Cool stuff for weather geeks like me!

*** Warm Weather Starts the Week ***

*** Slow Low to Bring Rain and Storms ***

*** Watching Cold Build ***

*** Time Change is November 2nd This Year ***

A typical transitional week coming up for the Midwest.  Right off the bat we have a taste of summer with a warm southerly flow sending temps back into the 80s on Monday.  But the warm air will not last.  A weather system is splitting as it slowly heads towards the Mississippi River.  The northern low will head into Canada while the southern energy will get stuck.  I think the models are trying to progress this southern energy too quickly through the upper level ridge anchored over the Great Lakes.  As a result, I expect unsettled conditions to move in Tuesday and continue into Wednesday night...and perhaps linger into Thursday.  This energy/low will be responsible for waves of showers and a few thunderstorms.  The dynamics don't look as favorable at this point as they did a few days ago so severe storms...while not out of the question... don't look like a big factor at this point.   Temperatures with the clouds will get cooler by day....only in the low 70s at best Tuesdsay and Wednesday.  As the system pulls away Thursday into Friday, there is little to no cold air...in fact...it's just more mild Pacific air...so I expect it to warm up nicely late in the week once the clouds finally do break.

Then attention turns to the weekend and early next week when signals are starting to point to a rather potent fall/winter like system taking shape in the Rockies and Plains.  This will eventually bring more rain and much colder temperatures our way...but timing and specifics this far out are impossible to gage.  Needless to say, early next week will feature a transition to colder fall temperatures.

One final note... I have received MANY emails and phone calls about the time change this fall.  We set our clocks back (fall back) on November 2nd.

After almost 5 months of deployment and a couple of weeks of down town to rest, it's time to start getting back into the swing of things here at Fox 2.  Wow, have things changed...station gets sold and now we are merging operations with KPLR.  There will be no shortage of interesting times ahead for us here at Fox 2...that is for sure.

I need to pass along once again to everyone my  most sincere and heart-felt thanks for your thoughts, prayers and just overall well wishes while I was gone.  I especially need to thank my co-workers who picked up the slack....Mark, Angella, Dave and Glenn all did a great job filling the void.  But now I'm back and the it's time to shift back into weather mode.

Looking at the week ahead, the pattern is fairly quiet.  While there will be a dip in the jet this week, the main push with this will stay up to the north keeping any major pushes of cool air away.  This dip is enough to dislodge the pesky upper low that kept our skies mixed up with clouds over the weekend and even produced a few spotty thunderstorms.

With that low out of the picture clouds will be fewer and farther between.  The upper flow might look like one that would argue for a large warm-up...but the surface winds don't indicate it.  In fact, the models are showing little wind on Monday...and only light winds the next couple of days with a ridge of high pressure to our east being the main player.  This type of scenerio will offer only modest warming... lower to mid 80s at most...with stronger warming out west of western MO where the south/southwesterfly flow will become well established.

Don't take your eyes off the tropics... it looks like a new tropical storm is on the way as conditions are at least somewhat favorable for a disturbance near Puerrto Rico to get organized in the next day or so.  This will be a watcher for the east coast ... as current trends block the Gulf of Mexico.

Thanks again to everyone...let the discussions begin!

-Chris

Well here we are...  August 11th and the redeployment date is getting closer.  I'm still more than a month away but its a good feeling to see the calendar shrinking.  I have to give a HUGE thank you to all of you who have contributed to the "Flip Flop or Drop" effort headed up by Mark Christopher and Victoria Babu over at KTRS.  Without the support and hard work  of The Big 550 and the gang at "The Mark Christopher Show" (noon-3pm M-F) this could never have happened.  I've heard through the grapevine there may be as many as 5000 pairs of flip flops!  Thats more than 10x as many as I had hoped for.  Lets pray that many of them go un-used because that will mean fewer and fewer are getting wounded.

Big news for me today may turn out to be the highlight of my deployment.  General Patraeus made a brief stop here today and I had the great privelege of being asked to brief him up on weather conditions throughout the region.  It was relatively short, but the public affairs folks did manage to snap a few pictures. It was an awesome experience.

Tomorrow, we begin shooting "A Day in the Desert"  A camera crew will be following me along through the course of my day to gather video for a story that will air on Fox 2 sometime in the future detailing what my average day has been like here at my deployed locaiton.  I'm not sure when it will air...but most likely before I return in late September.  I have had many requests to see more about what I do here so you guys should find it interesting.  It should be pointed out that this will be only the second time EVER that cameras have been allowed into this highly classified facility and you'll only see it on Fox 2!

Well, its time to head out for a little relaxation time and a couple of games of dominos with the gang.  Good luck to everyone back in St. Louis and go Cards! 

-Capt Higgins

Hello once again from the desert.  I'm now past my 1/2 way point and it feels great knowing there are fewer days ahead than are behind.  But there is still a lot of work to be done.  The weather here has taken another turn.  Now it's not just incredibly hot, but the winds have turned off the nearby water and now we settle into the mid/late summer pattern of steam.  The overnight low last night was 84 with a dew point of 84.  Some people pay to have that kind of steambath...we get to enjoy it for free!

Now, on to good news. For those of you who have been gathering your men's flip flops I now have a drop off point.  Mark Christopher...host of "The Mark Christopher Show" on The BIG 550 KTRS... (M-F Noon-3pm) has brought the folks at KTRS into the mix.  They will be serving as the main drop off location.  I'm also working with my good friends at the Mail Depot in O'Fallon, MO to arrange for shipping.

If you're just hearing about the flip flops...here's the deal.  When our guys are wounded they are rushed directly to the closest medical care.  They often are stripped down....and have no clothing.  I was talking with some of the medical folks here a couple of weeks ago to see if there was anything they could use...and they suggested flip flops.  Especially men's flip flops.  This gives them something to wear (and then pitch) while they are at the receiving treatment.  They also suggested small lap blankets for them to cover up with on the plane when they get transported from theatre hospital to larger european medical facilities.

To help drum up support for this drive I will be going on Mark's show either later today (Tuesday) or Wednesday.  Listen in to get more details.  As always thank you for your support! 

-Chris

Hello gang....sorry this is a day late...but unfortunately the war doesn't take time off for holidays.  It was great to have the chance to spend sometime over the phone with John and Randi Friday morning.  From the comments I ran across in my last blog, it sounds like many of you heard the interview.  I hope I didn't sound too down or tired...but it has been a long stretch and the weather has been a real challenge.  And when it gets challenging, everyone who is impacted (which is everyone) gets a little edgy. 

A quick thank you to everyone who posted in the last few days with well wishes for this Independece Day.  You may remember that I got a little worked up last summer about "Independence" vs. "4th of July".  I still feel strongly about that, but I've mellowed in my time here...probably because of fatigue..lol...and it doesn't bother as much...so long as we all remember that the true day is about more than the number "4".  They had a nice retreat ceremony to retire the colors (flag) last night...followed by your typical stateside bar-b-que.  And yes, we had our limited adult beverage service to top it all off.  So, despite being 1/2 a world away we had a nice celebration here.  Only thing that was missing were the fireworks...but those are generally not a good idea in these parts...could be mis-interpretted if you know what I mean.

To fill the time I have picked up a new game.  Just a new game to me anyway...not to many.  Apparently dominos has been a huge hit with military men and women for years...especially the army.  Up until about two weeks ago I had never played before.  Now I play everynight.  It passes the time and can be a lot of fun.  It's even a good thinking game to bring home and play with my son when I come back...so it's a win win situation.

If you listened to my interview, you heard me throw out another call for help.  I was talking with some of the medical folks the other day and I asked if there was anything they needed.  As it turns out, they need flip flops...mainly for men.  When the wounded are brought in from the field they are pretty much stripped down to the bare minimum and then moved on to wherever they need to go for care.  That means they have no clothing of any sort with them!  Flip flops and boxers/ briefs are in high demand and relatively low supply.  They also could use small lap blankets which are used to help keep patients warm while they are med-evaced to bigger hospitals.  I know that in the group of people who follow this blog we can hit a homerun with this.  They don't have the capacity for a ton of stuff...but maybe a couple hundred flip flops, undgergarments and blankets???  Do you guys think we can pull this off?  I haven't had time to contact anyone about acting as a collection point.  But I bet my good friend at the Kirkwood American Legion could come up with something (good to hear from you by the way!)

Well, my time is up for now...I need to run.  I will post back in here in a day or two to see what you guys come up with.  Thanks again for your prayers and support.  I'm 1/2 way home now and will back in September!

-Chris

Hello once again from the middle of nowhere!

First and foremost I have to extend some huge thank yous to a couple of groups of very special people.  A very very very heart felt thank you to my fellow Knights of Columbus at Ascension parish in Chesterfield.  They pulled together a HUGE care package (actually packages) full of lots of good stuff that arrived late last week.  Only a few days later, I received a second HUGE care package from my awesome co-workers and friends at Fox 2.  I'm now well stocked and should have enough goodies to get me through the rest of the summer. 

The care packages couldn't have come at a better time for me.  I'm now almost six weeks into my deployment with about 3 more months to go.  The reality of being away from my home and family for that long keeps sneaking up on me at the weirdest times.  Instead of getting easier with each day it seems to get more difficult.  I can't even begin to imagine the mental and physical stress our troops went through back during earlier wars...when there were few phones, no computers, no internet or digital cameras.  I get to talk to my wife and family at least 1x a week..sometimes more.  In previous wars they were lucky to get to talk once a month... or longer.  I've actually taken to writing letters home because sometimes it just seems more private and personal.  Besides, who doesn't like to get a letter in the mail, right?

I haven't been able to get a status report on our adopt a soldier program through A SOLDIERS WISH LIST.  But from the sounds of things we are at least making a dent.  Coming up sometime in the next week or two I will be doing a live phone interview with Mark Christopher at KTRS.  I'll use that opportunity to once again put out the call for folks to adopt soldiers.  I've been so blessed by so many friends...I just want to make sure others who are in far worse conditions receive the same.

The weather here during the past week has been horrible.  The worst wind, dust, sand,e tc. storm of my time here so far.  One side effect is that this "Shamal" pattern as it's called, does bring down the temperatures.  It has only been in the 103 to 107 range the past few days which has felt amazingly cool.

BRTN.. congrats on the funnel cloud spotting.  Gotta be careful at night though...especially in MO and IL.  Roads don't exactly go straight...especially in MO and it can be dangerous at best.  I do wish I was there...so save some of the storms for when I get back.  I haven't seen a cloud in nearly 5 weeks...not one! 

The family is doing well... but as I have always said... deployment is more difficult on the family you leave at home.  My wife has been doing an awesome job of keeping everything in good shape while I've been gone.  I think she needs a care package more than I do LOL.  Maybe I can get her a day at the spa?  Any ideas from former military?  What did your spouses like most to get while you were gone?

Well...time is slowly crawling by and its time for me to get back to work.  Best wishes to all...

-Chris

Hello once again from the desert!  All is going well over here as I've really settled into what I guess is going to be my routine. I can hardly believe that I'm already one month into this deployment... but that's still a long way from home.  The weather here just keeps getting hotter.  Today we hit the highest temperature yet for the year...113.  However, unlike the early days, the winds have changed direction and we now get a nice fetch of tropical humidity off the Persian Gulf... it makes a St. Louis summer day feel chilly.  Fortunately, my body has quickly adjusted to the heat.  I can also add a new phenomenon to my meteorological experiences book...desert dust devil!  We had one spin up just south of the base this afternoon and I had a great view of it on my walk home.  It must have been 2000' high and it looked every bit like a rope tornado...minus the cloud above.  Winds in those things can get pretty feirce... upwards of 50 to 60 mph in the stronger ones.  It was amazing how long it lasted... a good 15 minutes and it was barely moving.  I would have taken a picture for you but cameras are not allowed on that part of the base.

My first care package arrived from home and my wife didn't dissapoint.  She sent my favorite peanut butter cookies which held up suprising well on the 10 day trip.  Speaking of care packages, I've been overwhelmed by the kind thoughts, prayers and generous offers coming from the viewers back there in St. Louis.  The folks at Fox 2 tell me they are receiving offers daily from you guys to see if there is anything you can do to help get me through this deployment.  Well, I am blessed to have a large and carrying family who has been keeping me well supplied here.  So rather than ask you guys to send anything to me directly, I would rather ask your assistance by helping out a cause that will benefit some of my brothers and sisters in uniform.  

You have no doubt heard the stories done by Andy Banker about a charity called "A Soldiers Wish List".  Jill Hampton (you know her as web girl I believe) spoke with the woman who runs the organization and she says she has 150 service members on her list who do not yet have sponsors...and summer is her slowest time of year.  What you guys could do that would do more to raise my spirits than anything...is to sign up with "A Soldiers Wish List".  My goal is to help them get all 150 of those service members matched up with a sponsor before Independence Day.  With the your help...I know we can do it!.  Just go to their website and see how you can help.

Soldiers Wish List

If you guys sponsor all 150 soldiers....I'll do something crazy for you... like shave my head :)  Oh..wait... it's almost there already :)

Thanks again to all of you for the wonderful thoughts and prayers.  Keep them coming because I can tell you... I need them...we all need them.  The days are getting longer and that homesick feeling keeps sneaking up on me.  I"m not here nearly as long as some folks.  It amazes me how they are able to pull it off.

I don't know when my next update will be... but until then...take care and God Bless!

-Chris

Hello hello hello ... from my undicloseable location in the middle of absolutely nowhere in the southwest Asia desert! 

I've been on station here for almost two weeks now and I'm finally settling into my position.  Major league stress due to weather conditions throughout the middle east the past few days.  Small scale features here are huge and any small thunderstorm can stir up more sand and dust than you could possibly imagine.  I have a lung full of the stuff already!  The job is rewarding but very very stressful.  I always have people hanging over my shoulder asking the same question... what's the weather, wind, etc. doing at point X,Y,Z...can we fly here there or wherever?  Actually, now that I think about it... that isn't that much different than what happens in the weather center at Fox 2 during severe weather :)   I'm sure Dave, Glenn and Angela would agree!

Another scorcher here today... 109 right now and by the weekend we are forecasting 114+.  It was weird checking the weather in STL a few days ago and seeing overnight lows in the lower 40s.  Will you guys ever pull into Spring or Summer?

I've also been following the deadly storms down in southwest MO.  I have strong connections to that area as I started my career down there.  Please say a special prayer for the folks down there in Newton County.  They are great folks and they have a lot of tears and hard work ahead of them.

Back here... the "desert diet" has been working well for me.  At the rate I'm going I will need all new suits when I get back later this year.  I still haven't completed the body clock adjustment though.  I get about 2-3 hours of sleep a night... the rest is just resting.  If that doesnt change soon... I'll have to result in some stronger "intervention".

It was nice to see some other folks from back home here on base.  There are quite a few folks from the STL area here.  In fact, I work just a stones throw from LABRAT's boyfriend.  I'm keeping an eye on him LAB... and he seems to be doing well.

The prayers from everyone have been helping me and the family.  My wife is doing welll and to the best of my knowledge... we have no more dead critters in the rafters.

Well, I need to get back to work...I hope to have pictures to post SOON.  Until then, feel free to post nice pictures in here of wet, green and colorful st. louis... I sure could use to see something... anything besides brown and rocks.  This place might as well be the moon...just a lot hotter!

Take care,

Capt H.

It's hard to believe this day has finally come...but here we are.  Today marks my last broadcast at Fox 2 for quite some time as I get ready to put my military training to the most extreme test yet.  

For security reasons, I can't be specific about when I leave and when I will return...and I can't tell you exactly where I'm going.  What I can tell you is that I am deploy to the middle east to provide weather support for operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Chances are if you have a loved one serving in one of those countries, the support I provide will be an important part of keeping them safe...both from mother nature and from those who wish to them (and us) harm.

Many of you have already expressed your concerns and prayers and I am deeply grateful!  But as I sign off this evening, I ask the favor of your prayers for all the other men and women who are serving across all branches of the armed forces.  And perhaps more importantly...I ask you to remember their families who stay behind.  In many ways the greater burden lies with them in our abscence.  I know that is the case with my family.

I may be gone from the air...but I will still maintain some contact with everyone through both myfoxstl.com and my web page morethanweatherstl.com.  It may take a few weeks to figure out the logistics... so just keep checking back.

Before I sign off, I need to recognize the contributions of my co-workers here at Fox 2... Dave Murray, Angela Hutti, Mark Gledmeir and Glenn Zimmerman along with all the behind the scenes folks who will have to work a lot harder to cover me while I'm gone.  It goes to show you that for every one reservist who deploys ... there are a lot of others who are helping to make it all happen.  I'm blessed to be where I am...which is something I will never forget!

Stay safe... and stay in touch!

-Chris

*** A WEEK OF PURE SPRING WEATHER

*** BECOMING STORMY AT TIMES

*** ONE MORE WEEKED

Well, 2008 has certainly has dished up just about everything so far....cold, big snows, record rainfall, record flooding, more cold, easter snow....and then the earthquake.  What more could a weather guy want?  How about some plain ole' spring weather????  Well, mother nature is ready to come through for us this week.  This is a pure spring week.  It will be warm...in the 70s... all week long.  I may be a bit too warm with 82 for Monday, but the I-70 cooridor...just north of the Ozarks... often gets a few degrees warmer than the models would otherwise indicate...and I'm banking on that for Monday.  If I'm off, nobody will complain about upper 70s I don't think so it's a win-win situation.

The warm flow from the south becomes increasingly more humid late Monday into the middle of the week.  At the same time, a rather strong and deep trough digs into the western US.  This will initially send a cold front our way on Tuesday...bringing with it a chance for thunderstorms.  I know the talk at SPC is that the main upper dynamics will be to our northwest...but I think the degree of instability and modest shear should be enough to produce at least some potential of winds and hail.  The main mode will be multicellular...with some potential early on for brief supercell structures... but a quick transition to more multicellular structures should take control.

Now, the biggest question for the forecast for me is with Wednesday.  I'm not at all convinced that Wednesday will be dry.  That is because I'm not at all convinced that the surface cold front/outflows will drive the effective boundary south of our area.  When you look at the upper level ridging and flow... it certainly isn't very conducive to a southward pushing front.  I would not be at all suprised to see the front hang up over the Ozarks between I-44 and I-70 on Wednesday... with the front serving as a firing zone for new development...especially as the low level jet begins to crank back up.  If it doesn't happen on Wednesday... it certainly will on Thursday and Friday. 

Finally, many have been asking when I am leaving on my deployment.  For security reasons, I can't tell you exactly when.  I can tell you that my last day on the air here at Fox 2 will be next Sunday... and that I will not return to the air waves until early fall.  While I'm gone, I'll try and post from time to time in here... but you guys will mostly be on your own this spring and summer.  If I'm allowed, I will be posting some pictures from time to time... and maybe even video... from my deployed location.  No guarantees though.

Have a good week!

Good morning everyone.  Did you feel it?  We sure did!  That was the first earthquake I've ever felt, so I really don't have a common frame of reference...but it was enough to wake us all up and get us standing in door frames.  It felt like it lasted for about 15 to 20 seconds...and resembled the sound of rolling over a washboard type road surface!  At first my wife and I thought it was wind from a storm...but then I realized the whole house was shaking.  We ran to get my son and it was all over very quickly.  Now, 2008 has had it all! 

What did you feel?

Good Friday evening everyone... it's nice to be back home with the family and back to work!  I wish I had better news about the weekend weather...but I'll get to that in a moment.  For starters, as you can see above, you have one last chance to get certified as a storm spotter.  The NWS will be holding the last class of the season at the St. Louis Science Center Saturday morning.  Pre-registration is NOT required... just show up and be ready to learn.  One of the best in the business, Jim Kramper from the NWS, will be giving the presentation.

Now, lets talk about this weekend.  What a bummer....that's the best way to describe it.  A very unusually cold April low is slowly drifitng from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Ohio valley and lower lakes.  Plenty of moisture has wrapped around this low... and with such cold temps aloft...and strong April sunshine... I expect quite a bit of convectively enduced showers Saturday and Sunday.  I expect to see quite a range in precip types... ranging from a cold rain, to grauple, some wet snow...and even some small "soft" hail in the stronger more robust cores.  Oh...don't forget the wind.  It will still be a factor Saturday...with only slight decreases on Sunday.  Overall, a raw weekend.

Temperatures are on track for moderation by early next week.  It is April after all...  Models are saying low 70s by Wednesday.  I think that is not warm enough.  The pattern looks very favorable for warm, dry windy conditions to develop on Wednesday...a pattern the models usually don't handle to well in terms of temps.  I've pushed the forecast up to 75 on Wednesday... and that may not be enough...especially if the approaching cold front slows down any... which is entirely possible.

 I know there were quite a few questions asked by folks in the past couple of weeks that I was not able to get to.  If you would do me a favor and repost here... I will do my best to get to them over the next week or so.

Hey gang... sorry my last blog was knocked out somehow... this will serve as a bridge until I return from Florida Friday morning.  Obviously there are some pretty interesting trends pulling together for Thursday across the midwest.  No doubt it will rain... in some cases a lot.  No doubt there will be several waves of storms... some severe.  The questions revolve around the degree and quality of the instability Thursday and whether or not there will be enough upward bouancy (i.e. instability / CAPE) to overcome the strong shear.  I haven't had the chance to look closely at the data... and may not be able to do so until later this evening.  But certainly looks like tomorrow will be a day to keep close tabs on the weather.  I have the rest of today and tomorrow to finish up my course work here at Hurlburt Field, FL... then I'll be back in St. Louis Friday morning...and on the air Friday night and all of next week for Dave. 

All indicators are pointing towards a very significant rain event the first part of this week.  This is all rain...no snow...but a lot of rain will fall.  The key players include a large and very slow moving...mostly positively tilted upper level trough that will pump a continuous feed of moisture from both the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico into the Midwest.  At the same time, a strong pocket of upper level winds (jet max) will remain nearly stationary from IA into the northern Great Lakes.  This will put much of MO and IL into a very favorable region of sustained lifting in the atmosphere starting Monday night and lasting into Tuesday.  This lifting will help to focus a low level jet stream into a slow moving cold front. 

The precip will likely be focused on two phases.  First will be Monday morning with the initial surge of moisture and low level instability.  This will be pushed north with the rapidly intensifying low level jet and the developing warm front.  Once the warm front punches north of I-70 around noon...thunderstorm chances will quickly diminish into Monday afternoon.  This trend will be short...as the main upper dynamics will then begin to unfold with a prolonged push of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Rainfall totals will easily reach 3" over a large part of MO and IL by Tuesday evening with isolated 6" totals not out of the question.  The result will be widespread stream and river flooding developing.

Severe weather is also possible on Monday...mainly in the form of large hail since most of the storms will be elevated north of the warm front.  However, any storms that root close to the surface layer Monday afternoon...along the surface warm front will need to be watched for high winds and isolated tornadic potential.  This will become more likely IF clouds break and we see sunshine.  Most likely area to watch will be along I-70 into metro STL Monday afternoon or evening.