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by ChrisHiggins from FOX 2

Last Post 26 days, 21 hours Ago


Chris's Corner - March 10, 2008
Mar 10, 2008 | 8:27 PM
Category: Weather
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*** FINALLY STARTING THE TURN TOWARD SPRING ***

*** MISSOURI STATE TORNADO DRILL IS TUESDAY @ 1:30 PM ***

Sorry this has taken so long to post.  It was a very busy weekend of double duty ... splitting time between Fox 2 and the Air Force Reserves.  On side note... I did finally qualify on my weapons training this weekend....42 out of 45!  But I could hardly feel my toes and fingers it was so cold.

Now to weather....It's about time! Signs are definitely pointing at a transition towards spring this week. That's not to say we have seen the last of the winter weather. I expect another couple of shots at accumulating snow before this snow season is done. However, more and more milder temperatures will begin to take over and cold spells will become less intense and shorter in duration.

The first week of March has certainly been one for the books. We get to within one degree of a record high on March 2nd, only to see the 3rd heaviest snow ever for the March just two days later. Since that 78 degree day, it has been all about cold and we are now running an impressive 5.2 degrees below normal for the month.

The weather pattern to start the week features a double storm track set-up. The cold polar jet will be easing back to the north while the wet southern jet will hold the moisture to our south. This allows a bubble of mild Pacific air to build over the Rocky Mountains and then spread east along I-70 into MO and IL Tuesdsay and Wednesday. The models typically underplay the amount of warming in this pattern so I started bumping my numbers well above guidance way back on Saturday...forecasting highs to reach 70 by Wednesday. This looks to be the right move as the models are trending that way. In fact...some lower 70s are quite possible in the favored downslope regions just northeast of the Ozarks...basically along I-70 from Columbia into the STL metro area.

The quite pattern early in the week is short-lived...another feature of an increasingly active spring storm pattern. A series of Pacific systems will move generally from west to east. The first one will deliver a chance for a few showers and non severe type thunderstorms on Thursday. The second will move in quickly behind. Model depicitions do show some potential for snow on the back of this system...but it is moving quickly and not closed off...and temperatures will be marginal at best. I've included a light rain to snow scenerio for Friday night into Saturday morning but I'm not very jazzed up about snowfall potential. Temps will be just above freezing and ground temps will be well above freezing.

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perkypolock read my blog view my photos
Mar 10, 2008 | 9:10 PM

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Friday night around Clarksville TN
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Saturday morning.. Guntersville AL, Alligator Moutain
perkypolock read my blog view my photos
Mar 10, 2008 | 9:13 PM

Monday Afternoon Home of Superman
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madaboutweather read my blog view my photos
Mar 10, 2008 | 9:23 PM

Neat pics perkypolock.

Chris, I have been waiting for this pattern for quite some time. It was a great and interesting winter with about everything that winter would have to offer. This winter seemed more to my south than having me as the bullseye like last winter, but I will never forget the ice storm that crippled our area.

I am ready for Spring! To have the pattern look like it's not so far off leaves me anticipating for the true thing! Everything comes alive in Spring and for me....it's the best season of them all! Which leaves me ending this in a question. You said this week looked like the storms that do form will be non severe, do u see in the near future of a severe weather outbreak, or at least a good shot at some decent storms? Call me wierd, but I like a good storm. (Nothing to be hurt though, just thought I would clarify.)
ChrisHiggins read my blog view my photos
Mar 10, 2008 | 9:48 PM

Too early to be too interested in the details, but early NEXT week has some potential to produce some interesting thunderstorms.
fox2fan4weather read my blog
Mar 10, 2008 | 11:27 PM

Hello! I just had to drop on short message. I'm enjoying spring break from school in Oklahoma City. I'm visiting my brother who is stationed at Tinker AFB. We're having a great time and temps are in the mid 60's. Could I ask for any better weather?!! Have a great week guys!
Medic06 read my blog view my photos
Mar 11, 2008 | 12:02 PM

So when looking at models and closed lows that bring us big snows here in stl what would you look for to indicate the possability of sever weather. I know ther are a huge amount of facotrs that go into when and where but just as a general guidline what would one look for?
Medic06 read my blog view my photos
Mar 11, 2008 | 12:05 PM

wow sorry for those spelling mistakes lol!
WebsterGroves read my blog view my photos
Mar 11, 2008 | 1:01 PM

Snow fort the day after the storm:
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And today...standing strong!
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BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Mar 11, 2008 | 2:09 PM

Hey all, how's everyone doing? Sounds like we had some un-happy campers down South with that last system that buried folks from AR to MA. I was shocked at the amount of verga with that system, the dry air seemingly never gave way for a lot of people. That's the way it goes sometimes. We've certainly had our share of those up North too...

Looking at this week, the mid-week system that I had been watching for a possible outbreak doesn't look quite as impressive as I had thought... That being said, it looks like areas from TX to OK possibly as far North as AR could be in-line for some strong to severe storms on Thursday into Friday. We may get a decent shot at some measurable rainfall, with >.50" possible in spots by the weekend, along with some thunder and lightning. After that, all attention turns towards the "St. Patrick's day storm", which has been well advertised looking through the previous posts. This has the markings of a big system, but I think the GFS is too fast to eject this system out of the SW, big surprise there. In other words, look for this system to affect us after St. Pats day, probably around the 18-19th. The models are trying to figure out where to eject this upper low, once it comes out of the SW and into the Plains states. Considering that this system is progged to ride down the CA coast, I'm thinking this will probably cut NW of the area, leaving us in the warm sector - and one that will likely feature severe weather. This will be a big storm system, and likely one that will feature every sort of weather on the map at one time. Wind, rai
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Mar 11, 2008 | 2:11 PM

rain, storms, heavy snow, and another shot of cold air behind it. Another big late-winter storm to watch develop!
Maddie81
Mar 11, 2008 | 4:44 PM

So the st patty's day parade this sat. Is looking to be cold?
WebsterGroves read my blog view my photos
Mar 11, 2008 | 7:04 PM

Chris -
Don't let them take away our chat! At least they should be honest about it and just say they want the live feed, which is where they directed all the traffic anyway. BIG HUGE BANNER at the top of every page vs. a little link in small print that people had to search for at the bottom of the page.
weatherfan17
Mar 11, 2008 | 8:46 PM

btrn do u think that we are done with the accumalating snow this year??
BobBobbyRobert25 read my blog view my photos
Mar 11, 2008 | 10:03 PM

Just stopping in to say hello, it's been a few days since i've checked in. And that just because the weather has been kinda slow. BUT, I'm enjoying the nice warmer weather we are having. And I also look forward to next weeks "big" storm. Hopefully we get aleast one more really nice snow before winter calls it off. gnight everyone...
ChrisHiggins read my blog view my photos
Mar 12, 2008 | 8:46 AM

Webster... I'll check into it. I didn't know they were making a change. I will see what, if anything, I can do...but I will do what I can.
WebsterGroves read my blog view my photos
Mar 12, 2008 | 8:59 AM

Thanks, Chris. I just heard from the webteam and they are going to keep the chat up for weather chat, so that's a good thing.
Peagcu read my blog
Mar 12, 2008 | 11:59 AM

Anyone think we have a chance at some white stuff on Saturday? Checking the latest projections for low track and the GFS it looks like the cold air is going to come down a bit further than present forecasts are indicating. Any low that goes from the NW tip of the panhandle to Wichita Falls has to be considered for us. That's the two positions for 6 am Friday and 6 pm Friday. The low track info also has this thing deepening very rapidly in this period from 1000 to 991.

GFS has the 850 freeze line south of STL in the 72 hour period with light to moderate precip here. the low doesn't seem too impressive.

NAM has a much more vigorous low that comes quite a bit further N with more moisture leaving the 850 freeze line N of about Bowling Green. It keeps the low at about 992 through it's journey from SW Kansas through STL and on eastward.

Is the 850MB low pretty much the same as the surface low location wise?
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Mar 12, 2008 | 2:38 PM

Last night's GFS run kinda peaked my interest with that system on Saturday/early Sunday. It was really borderline before, but that run came in colder, and just a bit further South if I remember correctly. Today's run is even a bit colder and further South, but weaker. For one thing, I'm not too crazy about the GFS solution of blowing up that lead shortwave, and creating a double-barreled low... I think the NAM actually has the better idea here, with one wave coming out, and one low. All things considered, I think we could get a quick heavy, wet dusting to an inch if it comes down hard enough, but the ground will be pretty warm still. If this thing stays South, and is as strong as the GFS was hinting at(which I don't think is totally realistic - it's not like this is a monster trof digging in or anything, it's a weak wave with a lot of warm air running underneath), we could see more, but I'm not real impressed at this point. It is an interesting system though.

Peagcu, the 850mb low is usually about 50-75 miles N/NW of the surface low. The NAM has it cruising directly overhead, while the GFS is hard-pressed on it passing to our South. I'm still trying to figure out which track is more realistic...
frivolousz21 read my blog
Mar 12, 2008 | 3:40 PM

Chris-

you linked us to a page where we were given paramters then tested on a forecast.

do you remember that site?
frivolousz21 read my blog
Mar 12, 2008 | 3:40 PM

Chris-

you linked us to a page where we were given paramters then tested on a forecast.

do you remember that site?
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ChrisHiggins

I am the weekend weather guy at Fox 2...but one weekend a month you'll see me looking like this picture. I'm also a weather officer with the US Air Force Reserves. I'm currently deployed to the desert of SW Asia supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom.

Member Since: 9/13/2006


 

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