BellevilleWXGuy's Blog

Yes, it appears that St. Louis may have its chance to get into some early season snow. This might occur during the Veteran's Day Holiday give or take a day. Many models are showing signs of a weak to moderate winter storm tracking through the corn belt. This would include a Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio area With Kansas City into Springfield, Illinois and Indianapolis, Indiana having the best chance of snow, and possibly accumulating snow. There is some cold air to be had to the north of the system, and models are quick to jump the gun with this. The 18UTC GFS is the most bullish. Should it verify, then a six inch swap of snow could be in the making along the I-70 Corridor. I believe that is way too bullish, but nice to think about. Right now it is much too early to tell what will happen next week, but I'm feeling more and more confident that winter precipitation will make it's first visit to the St. Louis area. The trend is colder and wetter with the upcoming storm Monday through Wednesday. The models are also getting slower with it, with the 18UTC GFS picking up a cut-off low developing in Texas, and moving east, northeast into southern Tennessee and into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. This isn't a bad track, but I would like it to tilt a bit more northbound then east bound as it passes to the south of us. That would get a better cold flow going, and create conditions for dynamic cooling, and give us a long opportunity to be in the heavier precipitation. Another factor against heavy snow accumulation is the very warm ground. We have been in the 70s to near 80 in some places for the last 5 days or so. That means what snow does fall will most likely melt right on impact. If the snow can fall heavy enough, then some brief light accumulations of an inch or two can't be ruled out in some places.

Here's the run down:

Monday: Cloudy with rain, and breezy. Raw. Highs in the 40s.

Monday Night: Cloudy with light rain or showers before midnight, then rain mixing with snow between midnight and 3am, then rain, sleet, and snow after 3am.  Lows between 32 and 35. Winds east at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Rain, sleet, and snow in the morning, then rain mixing with snow between 9am and noon, then rain afternoon. Cold. Highs around 40. Breezy at times.

Tuesday night: Rain before 10pm, then rain mixing with snow between 10pm and 1am. Then snow and sleet after 1am. Light accumulations possible. Lows around 31 to 34.

Wednesday: Sleet and snow before noon, the rain and snow showers after noon. Little additional accumulations possible Highs in the upper 30s.

Wednesday night: Cloudy with flurries before midnight, then clearing after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

There is a major cover up going on, and it could put a major damper on Halloween Plans, especially after the kiddies go Trick or Treating. It's all due to possibly tainted candy from China which may or or may not be contaminated with Melamine. It's the Candies sold at Target which are based off of Target's Halloween Mascot "Domo" Nobody is talking about it because of the Elections just four days after Halloween on the 4th. The media does want this to ruin the elections, but this is a very serious matter that needs to be disclosed and publicily known. I advise you to watch this video regarding this possible Threat. 55,000 Children have died from similar products less then 6 weeks ago. The Government Claims the products are safe, but they have tested none of the affected candies. They are also not releasing any of the documents stating that the candies were tested and whether or not they contain Melamine or other toxic chemicals in them. Melamine can cause kindey stones, kindey failure, oragn damage which is permenant and it can lead to death in large quantities especially in children under 5. These products should be taken off the store shelves until the FDA can 100% confirm that every candy shipped from China during the Melamine scare in China is tested and tests negative for Melamine or other harmful substances. Melamine is the same toxic chemical that kille so many beloved pets last year. We do need it to happen again, especially in children and adults a like. If nothing is done, their is the potential of some serious health issues come right after elections.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUB79WJ9ktQ

Well what the difference a few days make on the weather forecast! A dry and bland weather period is set to become one of the most active weeks in the whole month, thanks to a cut-off low that is expected to develop on Wednesday after digging out of the northern Rockies on Tuesday. This system will be packing quite a bit of cold air with it and will most likely continue to throw the models off guard. We won't get a good data sampling on this storm till the 12UTC runs tomorrow once this whole system gets into the US's Met Network. So expect at least a few more models of swings, however a interesting trend has been developing, and that could lead to a more potent storm then expected just a day or two ago.

Phase One: (The digging)- Storm will come of the Chinook winds of the northern rockies, however it will drag a lot of cold air with it, thanks to Canadian high pressure developing rapidly to it's northwest and digging south. The low is forced into the plains into Kansas by Tuesday night and into Wednesday. This will begin to draw up moisture from the gulf into the system along with dry warm air from the southwest and cold air from the north. This will set the stage for what will be a blockbuster severe weather outbreak in Kansas Oklahoma, Texas, and yes, eventually into western and southern Missouri. Tornadoes, damaging to destructive winds and very large hail are all up for grabs. Major supercell to bow segment outbreak is likely! You have been warned! Meanwhile on the cold northwestern side of the system in northern Kansas and central Nebraska into the front range will see rain turn to very heavy wet snow with snowfall rates approaching 3 inches an hour at times, thundersnow is possible if dynamics are as strong or stronger then presently indicated. Blizzard warnings are likely with very strong northwesterly winds of upto 45 to 60 mph in gusts. This could be a legendary snow for these locations with 2 feet of snow easily possible in central nebraska. Low will deepen rapidly as it slows down, but continues in a easterly direction.

Phase Two: (Mature Stage)- Low becomes closed off and vertically stacked, meaning that all low centers including surface, mid-level, and upper level low are all in one location and the storm deepens to it's lowest point. This will occur in western Missouri on Wednesday night and into Thursday. Models predict a pressure of 1008 MB, but I think that's way underdone. I'm looking more at a pressure at the low center to be closer to 984 to 992 at the least. Meanwhile high to the northwest reaches maximum high pressure at over 1044MB That is a pressure gradiant of upto 60 MB at the extremist, and 50 MB at the least. So winds will max out with tropical storm force winds especially north and west of the center with winds easily at least 30 mph sustained elsewhere with locally higher gusts. Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will max out at the northwestern quadrant of the system while severe weather mainly damaging winds and tornadoes spreads eastward into Arkansas, east/central Missouri and into south cental Illinois and western Kentucky. Heavy rain is likely as a weak tropical disturbance begins to track north from the gulf increasing moisture. Temperatures will fall rapidly once the occulded front or cold front passes on Thursday evening.

Phase Three: System begins to wind down some as high pressure to the west weakens and the low center loses some punch, but still a formiable 996 to 1000MB storm. This will cause the gradiant to slacken some, but still winds could be quite gusty in the 20 to 30 mph range. Low is now positioned on or near St. Louis by Friday and will continue to very slowly drift east, northeast bound. (I did say really slowly didn't I?) Snows should let up in the plains, while severe weather is pushed into the southeastern states with tornado risk much lower as dynamics begin to weaken for them. Still damaging winds and hail are easily possible along with some much needed heavy rainfall. Fast moving clouds, but overcast conditions of us in the St. Louis area with frequent but not constant showers, could get some thundershowers mixed in with small hail if we can get some sun to peak in a strong dynamics. No snow for us, but We'll have to watch the night time hours especially if the cold pool is stronger or colder then expected. This will continue through Saturday.

Phase Four: (Dissapation and Mystery Phase)- Main low tracks east and northeast and weakens as it is pickup by a new trough from Canada on Sunday, this will keep us cloudy in the morning Sunday with slowly clearing skies in the afternoon according to most models. However, some weather models want to leave pieces behind  in terms of catching the next trough. The 18UTC GFS for example wants to develop or re-developed the closed low in the eastern Tennessee Valley and retrograde it back west northwest bound towards the Mid-Mississippi River Valley with more rain and cooler air as well as some more breezy conditions on Monday and through Tuesday of next week. This of course is still way to far to give any real consideration to as far as forecasting the future of this very complex storm system. Either way the period from Tuesday night through Election Day looks fridge at the moment, but I feel that could change as well, or at least be modified as we get closer.

Enjoy!

BellevilleWXGuy

After a little rain and a few storms late night, look for dry and seasonable weather to make it's return to St. Louis and the surrounding area. All thanks to Canadian High Pressure building in from the northwest. Mild to semi-warm days followed by somewhat crisp autumn nights. Look for fall colors to really start popping by this weekend. Already approaching near peak in the northern third of the viewing area. The rest should follow by this time next week. Highs will be in the lower 60s both Thursday and Friday, but look for a warm up by the weekend with Highs in the lower to mid 70s. Think for the most part we are done with 80s, but lets not rule them out quite yet for the remainder of the year. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in Downtown St. Louis with mid to upper 40s in the suburbs, and upper 30s to low 40s in the rural areas each night through Sunday. Then look for lows in the mid 50s Downtown to low 50s to upper 40s suburbs, and mid 40s in rural areas by this time next week. Highs will slump slightly back into the upper 60s to around 70 in St. Louis. As for rain not seeing much. A few weak disturbances might bring some clouds, but moisture will be lacking, so rain chances should be at a minimum.

Look for a change in the pattern after Halloween. It could be our first taste of Winter chill with our first freeze possible by Election day. A big storm could precede this major cool down, but too far to go into any details. It is something to keep an eye on however. Still a little time left for the house plants, but it's time to start thinking about bringing them inside in the next 2 to 3 weeks.

My Preliminary Winter Forecast is now online, and can be viewed by clicking on the Weather Blogs section under "see all weather blogs" or click my screen name to access my blogs page and scroll down to read it from there. Final Winter forecast will come in Middle November after Dave Murray's Winter Outlook which will be out most likely on November 17th or 18th. Mine's will follow soon afterwards. Stay tuned!

PS: Looks like the FOX Staff has decided to feature my Preliminary Winter Outlook on the Weather Blogs Section, so you may view it from there as well! :)

BellevilleWXGuy

No, this isn't Chris' or Dave's really anticipated Winter Outlook, but as typical of myself I am trying out my meteorological knowledge and trying to put some serious first guesses on the upcoming winter season. I know many people are quite curious about what Winter 2008-2009 has in store. Well let me be the first to tell you, if you live in the eastern 2/3rds of the country... Be prepared for a wild ride! We are facing a year that is in some ways behaving like a La Nina rather then a La Nada pattern. La Nina tends to bring colder and average to above average precipitation. The ENSO is also neutral which is a big plus for snow lovers, it means that while we have a warm and relatively dry mid autumn, it is setting the stage for a cold and wetter winter season. Changes are coming soon! The NAO is expected to drop to minus 1 or 2 by mid November, and the Pineapple express beginning to set up, however with the negative NAO is will prevent too much pacific moderation from ruinning arctic outbreaks. I'm really eye balling Election Day and beyond for this pattern Flip. Until then we can continue to expect normal to above normal temperatures, nothing extreme or record breaking, but seasonably mild. Dry weather will also be the prodominate weather for the remainer of the month of October. Not to say we won't see anymore rain this month, we will, but it will be in light amounts. Afterall believe it or not, October is one of our driest months on average. Halloween Week into Election Day will be the transitional period. Look for a big storm to ramp up in the plains and slide eastbound with heavy rain and yes some storms possibly strong to severe especially south of St. Louis. The much colder air and some snow to wrap around the back side in the northern plains and Great Lakes. St. Louis? Most likely not, but Let's watch it anyway. After that Cold air will rush into the eastern 2/3rds of the US for the balance of November with some mixed bag precip events mainly light possible. December looks delicious!

If your a Snow Bunny, then this is your Month! December could feature 2 major snowstorms along with a heavy ice storm either seperate from the snow events or built into one of them. December will cold and snowy for no just St. Louis, but much of the US North of 35N Latitude. Even the southeast could get into the act! Temperatures will be much below normal for much of the month with only the southwest above normal, The core of the Cold should be centered in the Great Lakes or northern Great Plains. The exact position could effect our chances of heavy snow. Too far east then we get only light amounts. To far west and we get warm tongued with rain or ice rather then snow. Best area would be the north central Plains for the coldest air to be. It's 50/50 right now. It will be tedious and at time aggreviating, but hold on, I still believe we will be above normal in snow for December.

January will be cold to start with some snow, but then look for the thaw mid January into early Mid February. Temps will be above normal and precipitation above normal, however much of it will either be rain, or a rain snow mix, not good for creating snow pack. Late February will see the cold air rebuild back into the central and eastern US with big storms possible by month's end into March. Look for upto 2 heavy wet snow events along with another ice storm. minor snows of 1 to 3 inches could be frequent if the clipper track is just right, but not a promise. January will average out to be above normal in Temperatures by about 2 degrees while Precipitation will be above normal by 50%. Febraury will be near normal Temp-wise plus or minus a degree, and precipitation will be 40% above normal. March will be much colder then average by minus 4 to 6 degrees and wetter then normal by 70% with most of that in frozen or freezing precipitation. Spring may not arrive until late April if some ensembles and natural signs are correct. It could be a long, but classic St. Louis Winter!

Averages for the Winter (Prelimanary of course):

Temperature Season as a Whole: -2.2 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 10% of Below Normal Precipitation, 65% of Above, and 25% of Normal Precipitation.
Snowfall: 35.7 inches. Much above normal by 17.2 inches. Normal is 18.5 inches (Lambert Airport).

Map in Almanac Format...

Green Dot in Missouri/Illinois Bi-state= St. Louis Metro area.



Enjoy! The Final Winter Outlook with Midwest Focused Maps will be released right after Dave's Winter Outlook Special in Mid November probably around the 18th or so...

BellevilleWXGuy

[IMG]http://i445.photobucket.com/albums/qq171/Stormwatc
her87/AlmanacStyleWinter1.png[/IMG]

Welcome all to October. October is one of my most favorite months, not just because of Halloween, but also because October can be one of the most dramatic months of the year after April and March. October is usually big on weather extremes. You can have some really warm days, and some really cool to cold days near the month's end. There can also be days of brillient blue sunshine and days of rain and storms as well as some severe weather on ocassion. Once in a great blue moon you might even catch a sleet ball or flurry at the end of the month is your lucky. October is also when we finally get to put the lawnmowers away for the season usually after the 15th. Leaves then become the main chore as far as raking them up, but the smell can be inviting and warming. Gives you that true fall feeling if you know what I mean!

This october is looking to be a typical October for us with a cool start as we are feeling now, but then a quick warm up in the coming days. It also looks like our weather pattern maybe progressing towards a more wetter weather pattern with more rains and storms. Not constantly, but the chances will be there from time to time. Temperatures will average to be slightly above normal despite the first few days of the month being cooler then normal. Rainfall I predict will average normal to above normal for the two week period, some areas could get some heavy rains around the 7th to 10th, then again in the 14th and 15th. So above average rain is not out of the question. Watch for those fall colors to really start to flare up in the next few to several days as well. I'm thinking Fall 2008 could be one of the most colorful in years for the area. Conditions look ripe for full fall colors.

Those of us might remember the Tornado that hit Fairview Heights, Illinois last year which killed one person and injured several others. As urban sprawl expands and shopping space increases the odds of people coming into contact with severe weather increases and so does the risk of injury and death when severe weather strikes. Little that most people know that stores and malls usually don't have a plan in place when severe weather stikes. There's always a fire escape plan, but nothing is ever posted about when a tornado or other disaster threatens. I'm planning to do something about that. For those of us in Belleville, Illinois we are all pretty much aware of the new major retail development under construction in the west-end named Belleville Crossing where Target and Home Depot are among other smaller stores like Pet Smart, OfficeMax, Hobbit Sports, Keck Jeweriers, and Mattress Giant. I am planning to create a StormReady plan and have OfficeMax (the store I work at) be the first to be a StormReady Supporter, possibly by the end of the year, if not by next year. In time I hope to expand this to the entire plaza of Belleville Crossing and make it one of the safest places to shop when severe weather threatens. I believe this all possible if I can get my manager to talk to other managers of the other stores and create some kind of communication network and quickly share information when severe weather threatens. Then have each store send customers and associates to designated shelter areas like the back bathrooms or untility area of the back. As well as make sure every store has a weather radio and knows how to use it and have a designated weather spotter, usually somebody closest to the front of the store like the cashiers or cart boys to alert of sudden and dangerous weather conditions, and preferrably have them be trained weather spotters by NOAA to avoid false alarms. If the plan goes through, then Belleville Crossing, along with OfficeMax will be the first ever StormReady Store and Retail Center in the Country. How's that for a customer draw and helping serve the community at the same time!

As always enjoy the weather! I will post progress of the StormReady Belleville Crossing as it progresses and information becomes available.

BellevilleWXGuy,

Steven

Well, September is almost over, and so far it is shaping up to be exactly what I expected it to be... Slight below normal to near normal temperatures, and record to near record precipitation. That all thanks to Gustav and Ike primarly. With only 7 days or less left in the month, the only surprise I see coming maybe around the 29th to the 30th, but most recent models have this holding off until October. Either way September will be remembered as one of the most interesting Septembers in recent St. Louis history IMO. With all of that said, that now leads us into October...

October I think will be a month of swings, as I originally expected it to be, although perhaps a little more sharper in those flips and flops then what was originally advertised in my late August Autumn Outlook. Models have been causing me to rip my hair out metphorically speaking with a sharp and deep trough of low pressure to center itself in the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley region during the first half of the month. Not what I expected at all. Of course this is still 8 to 11 days out there so a lot can and probably will change. However if it verifies to current projections then we could be looking a notable cool spell with highs in the low 60s if not the mid to upper 50s and lows easily in the mid to upper 40s in St. Louis and in the low 40s to upper 30s in the rural regions along with a frost possible in low lying valleys depending if there is a wind component or not. Snow even for the great lakes region is a far shot, but I definitely agree that our current traquil weather pattern is running out of time, and sooner or later we will be paying up for this relatively long stretch of descent to nice weather.

As with posting I plan to start posting a bit more often, weekly if possible with weather column updates. Things have been busy lately, so posting has been a lower priority on my list of things to do. I will be having more frequent access to a computer soon, so that should in theory grant me more posting time.

Enjoy the nice weather,

BellevilleWXGuy

Hurricane Gustav rapidly developed last night south of the Dominician Republic and Haiti with near catagory 2 force winds and a pressure just measured by hurricance hunter aircraft at 957.9MB. It was moving northwest at around 10 mph, but is expected to make a turn to the left and move west, northwest by Wednesday afternoon. This will bring it south of Cuba and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula... The perfect feeding grounds for a monster hurricane to take shape as it enters the Gulf of Mexico by the Labor Day weekend.

Where it goes from there is still up in the air, but I know one thing is for certain it will hit the United States and given the light shearing environment and bath warm waters it will more then likely be a major hurricane at that point possibly a catagory 4 or even a five with winds ranging from 135mph to 175mph. The biggest thing that will dictate where Gustav will make landfall in the US is a ridge that is expected to build in the eastern third of the US. The GFS and GEM models predict a 1024MB to 1030MB high pressure ridge to form in the Mid-Atlantic area into the mid south. As we all know winds in a high pressure center blow clockwise.

If this ridge builds as forecasted then the central gulf coast will be the prime target of this storm. New Orleans to Houston to Pensacola comes to mind, with Louisana and Mississippi being the highest risk for a landfall. This will occur sometime by middle or latter next week. Wednesday through friday timeframe. After then it could shot north and bring clouds and possibly rains up along the Mississippi Valley which also includes Memphis and St. Louis. A far shot, alot of things could change, but this is a storm worth keeping an eye on!

At 5pm EST, Tropical Storm Fay was located in the Dominician Republic and moving westward with winds of 40 mph with gusts upto 55mph mainly north and east of the center over the water. Little change in strength is expected in the next 24 hrs as the system is mainly over land during that time. Computer models have the storm crossing Cuba in 36 hrs and into western Florida in about 60 to 72 hrs, however I expect as ridging aloft develops the system will be stunted farther west with a landfall expected from Apalachicola, FL to Lake Charles, LA. This would put Mobile, MS to New Orleans in the Bullseye for highest risk of landfall, although the Florida Keys maybe impacted first. If this occurs to what I predict then TS Fay will make a final US Landfall on Tuesday or Wednesday as a catagory 2 or 3 storm with winds between 100 and 120 mph. Not quite another Katrina, but that region doesn't need any kind of Hurricane. Keep an eye on the gas prices if this forecast hold true, because lots of oil rigs are in that area and will likely be affected or have to temporary shut down. This will cause the price of fuel to surge higher for a couple of weeks, possibly near or above $4 again. All along the Florida and Gulf Coast need to keep an eye for this storm. It has the potential to be a real dousy.

It's hard to believe that it is already closing in on that time already. Boy this year just seems to be whipping on by. Now that I believe that I have a very good fix on the patterns and trends, I figured it's a good time to throw out my Fall forecast before Dave Murray comes out with his sometime in September, then we can have a friendly competition to see who comes closest.

First of all the review of the Summer Forecast. Let's just say that I've made some pretty big flops in that prediction, but I think alot of forecasters did. This year has not been a Meteorologist's nor a clinatologist's friend when it comes to making seasonal forecast. Overall my prediction of a seasonal to somewhat warm summer with slightly eblow normal precipitation was a bust. In fact this summer will probably be one of the top ten wettest on record if it isn't already, and will be the coolest since the late 70s to early 80s. I think June was the only month that was even close to what actually happened with July Close in the beginning with a short dry and warm spell, but flopping at month's end with a big return of the rains that was totally not expected. As for August, while he have seen some or our warmest temps this Summer during the month so far, it is certainly not the heat and humidity I expected to see. In fact it's been down right coolest for August in the last few days, and if I had to make a prediction for the rest of the month it will be on the wet and on the coolish side. That's not to say a few more 90s might seek in by months end, but the odds of any 100+ degree weather is basically out the window for this season. But since August is not finished will give August an "Incomplete, but most likely will not verify with the original forecast of very warm to hot temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation". On that note I'll give my overall Summer Forecast a "D" so it was in simple terms a dud, but hey it happens. Long range forecast should never be taken literally to the letter.

Well despite a defeat in the Summer Forecast, it is time to get back on the horse, and try again with the Autumn Forecast, except this time I have a bit more knowledge on hand, and a better feel for what pattern we are heading into not just for this year but the next 5 to 10 years to come. I've explained a lot more in detail of what I mean in the previous post: "Food for Thought for 08/09 Winter Predictions". So let's dust our hands off and sadle up... It's time for the Fall 2008 Forecast...

General: In a quick summary I like the idea of the wetter then normal and cooler then normal conditions contiuning throughout the Autumn months. That's not to say that we will have a few short warm spells in there especially around late September and mid October, but the overall phase is cooler and wetter then normal, and to be honest I think that is going to be the trend well into the winter months. Atmospherically we are still believe it or not still feeling the affects of a La Nina pattern that actually just died a few months ago in June, but it takes anywhere from 12 to 24 months for the atmosphere and oceans to return to normal and prepare for the next cycle which would be a El Nino, but not so fast. We are also heading into a 5 to 10 year cool phase of the 30 year temperature cycle which I've also explained in the post mentioned above. Also active hurricane season especially those with several land falling storms in North America especially the south, tend to have cooler falls and winters in the eastern 2/3rd of the nation, and warmer in the western most 3rd. Hummmm. Sounds like the pattern we're already in, or about to settle into doesn't it? So with all of that said, let's just say I'm pretty confidence this time unlike in the Summer which was a little more iffy so to speak. So lets keep that cooler and wetter then normal pattern going in the St. Louis area for the next 6 to 9 months or so. Now we are ready to get into the specifics of the Fall Forecast.

September: If you like meteological swings, then september is your month. We've got it all. Warm spells, cool spells, and most likely some pretty nasty thunderstorm action to boot. Can anybody say secondary tornado season? We could have a few rounds of some very severe thunderstorms which dump heavy rain, very destructive winds, large hail, and yes some tornadoes in which a couple could be violent and dangerous. That's not to say there won't be some quite time in there too. In fact the times that we are dry it could be quite nice with seaonable to below normal temperatures, but ahead of those strong fronts there could be some warm surges that pull our temperatures into the upper 80s and maybe a 90 degree reading or two along with some sticky humidity. Behind the fronts especially at the second half of the month could feature a very significant cool shot that drags high temperatures into the low to mid 60s and lows in the mid to upper 40s. Now that's crisp even for September standards. Overall the 1st through 3rd will be warm and dry. 4th through 7th will feature humid conditions and strong t-storms. 8-12th will be pleasant and dry. 13th-16th will be warm and humid with storms, some severe with heavy rain. 17th-19th will be steady rains and cool(watch for some flooding). 20th through 24 will be dry and warm. 25th through 27th will have severe storms followed by much cooler and drier weather. 28th through 30th will be cool and dry, with a slight warming trend by the 30th. Month as a whole... Near normal temperatures, and much above normal precipitation.

October: This month will be a bit quieter then September in the severe weather deptartment, but it will still remain on the wet side with temperatures that will swing from time to time, but not a vividly has in September. Still think that there could be one or two rounds of strong storms with wind damaging the main threat, but flooding maybe an issue especially around mid and late month. Things could be on the cool and soggy side for the Trick or Treaters, but again like September it won't be raining the whole month, but when it does it could very well... Pour. The 1st through 5th will be pleasant and mild with mainly dry conditions. 6th through 10th could feature some rain and t-storms (watch for some severe storms early on). 11th through 13th could be quite cool, but dry(potential for first freeze or frost of the cool season) 14th through 19th may feature some prolonged heavy rains and some river flooding, along with cool raw conditions. 20th through 23rd is dry and mild. 24 through 29th is warm with some possibility for some rain and storms by the end of the period. 30 through 31st is on the rainy side and raw with highs only in the low 50s to upper 40s. Overall for the month... Somewhat cooler then normal temperatures and much above normal precipitation.

November: Ahh, November, home month of turkey day and football. November like the other two fall months could be on the dreary side, but perhaps not quite the gang buster rains of September and October. There will be some more dry time, but there could be some pretty chilly temperatures especially by month's end. Let's get into the details. 1st through 3rd will see the Halloween rains wrap up and skys clear to some crystal clear vivid blue skies by the 3rd. Temperatures wil also begin to moderate some back into the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. The 4th to 8th will be dry and seasonable. 9th through 12th will see a new storm system approach from the west with rains and few rumbles of thunder. Nothing severe. Then turning cooler. 13th through 17 is expected to have dry and cool conditions with highs in the upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. 18th through 21st. dry and seasonable to start then stormy conditions move in with colder temperatures. 22nd through 24th could feature a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow with some minor accumulations possible. 25 through 30th is cold and overally dry. As a whole month will be pretty typical of what you would expect for November with near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. (this will likely be the driest of the fall months, which really isn't that dry at all)

Frist half of December: December will begin to feel like winter as it is supposed to this time of year. Like last year we could see a major winter storm in the first week of the month and again by the third week, however the second winter storm will have to wait till the Winter Outlook when we go more in depth about December and the Winter months ahead. 1st through 3rd is cold and wet with a rain changing to ice, then to snow with some heavy acculumations possible. 4th through 7th is very cold with occasional periods of light snow and or sleet. 8th through 11th is cold and dry, but warming up some by the end of the period. 12 through 15 is dry and mild to start then clouds increase and temperatures begin to fall ahead of the next major storm. Overall early indications are for December to be colder then normal with above normal precipitation.

That basically is my fall prediction for the 3 and a half months to come. I will review dave Murray's forecast when he releases it and compare then see who turns out to be closest by the time it is all set and done. I will release my Winter Forecast sometime in late November.

BellevilleWXGuy,

While it may still only be mid August, it's never too early to begin thinking about what will be ahead for the upcoming winter season. There has been alot of talk lately on Accuweather, and also NOAA making some pretty radical changes to its overall thinking in the next 4 to 6 months to come. Alot of other weather groups are also starting to clam up about what could be a blockbuster winter season especially for the eastern 2/3rds of the US and Canada. This isn't to be a huge surprise considering that this Summer will probably go down as the most coolest Summer in quite some time, at least since 82 and 93 which were not surprisingly very wet years, similar to this year 2008.

As we all know last winter was actually quite average when it comes to winters in St. Louis, although the seasonal snowfall was a bit on the high side, it wasn't no record by a long shot. Temperatures where normal to slightly below normal and precipitation was slightly above normal, but still nothing too out of the ordinary. Then of course we had our cool and very wet Spring, and a somewhat cooler and wetter then normal Summer. We have had no 100+ degree readings officially this year, and my prediction is now that we won't. I believe our major heat season is 98% over. I'm not saying that we won't still have a few more 90 to 95 degree days, but nothing that isn't excessively hot, or long lived. The cool shots that we have already started to see and feel, will likely get stronger and longer lived as August and September commence. Of course your probably looking at me like, well of course it's going to get cooler, we're getting into fall. True, but it is a month to two months ahead of schedule cool downs. For example let's say a front comes through in September and causes highs only in the mid 60s and lows in the mid to upper 40s. That's more like late October, not September. That's exactly what I'm saying will likely occur over the next few months to several months down the road. I will have a more detailed fall forecast out shortly that will go more into detail, but I just wanted to throw that out there.

Right now we are still trying to recover from the La Nina that ended about 6 months ago, but it takes the planet upto 2 years before the affects of the previous La Nina or El Nino cycle end. On top of that we are heading into what I believe is the beginning of a 30 year cool snap. The last one was in the mid to late 70s, so we are due for the next cool phase. You can follow these cool and warm phases way back through time since weather records have been kept, and the result is consistant. We warm for 20 years, then chill out for 5 to 10 years before warming back up once more, hence continuing the cycle. I'm not saying that we should forget about Global Warming or Climate Change, but as most experienced weather hobbist and meteorologist know, the planet doesn't change the same way everywhere all of the time, it goes through phases. Yes, I do agree that the Earth is warming, but no I don't believe all of it is the fault of man, that's not to say we're not  helping climate change speed along, that I do believe we are doing. On that note the Earth for the last 200 years has been warming, but within that time for every 20 to 25 years of warming there is a 5 to 10 year period of cooling. The trend is for warming, but it's not warming all of the time. The 90s and early mid 2000s have been the height of the last hot cycle with 2003 to 2006 the peak, but now we're heading into a very steep dip in the temperatures especially in North America and Europe that will probably last upto the mid 2010s before, you guessed it the next 20 to 25 years of warming.

Then there is of course the natural signs of cooling or at least this year having the possiblilty of a harsher cold season besides from a technical and scientific approach. You all may have heard of the old wives tales of pine cones propagating at the upper part or top of the pine tree or birds clustering up and migrating south weeks or months then when they normally would, or Canadian Geese migrating south weeks ahead of schedule. And of course, we cannot forget about the wooly bear catapillers. There is some true to these myths, that's how they got started in the first place. That's not to say they are always right all of the time, but if three or more of these occurances are noted it is at least a good idea to consider them when making a seasonal prediction. So far I've seen Pine cones (new ones) growing at the top part of many pine trees in the area, Birds clustering up and flocking together already, and have heard and saw several flocks of geese already beginning there Winter journey southward. Haven;t seen any wooly bears, but there the more folk lore winter myth that I haven't had much success with, so will skip them for now. But still all the signs along with the cooler then normal and wetter then normal Spring and Summer (warm season) are pointing to a cooler then normal and and normal to above normal precipitation for the winter in St. Louis. Can't say how much of that will be snow or ice, but it's safe to say that the odds of frozen or freezing precipitation are higher as well.

Well that's my food for though on the upcoming cold season. I'll have a more detailed Fall Forecast issued shortly sometime today or Friday.

BellevilleWXGuy,

It would appear that August is setting up for some interesting shows in the skies this month. It's only the first 6 days of the month, and already we have a small heatwave, good risk of severe storms later this afternoon and especially tonight, as well as Edouard slamming the east Texas coast, and to top it all off the Perseids Meteor Shower is set to peak early next week with pretty descent hourly rates.

It's been awhile since I posted, but I have been busy with other matters in the last couple of months, but today I have finally found some time to throw a post out there especially with all of the exciting weather and astronomical events currently in progress or coming in the very near future.

First off, we all know how hot it's been the last few days, but ironically we have still yet to officially hit 100+ degrees yet for the air temperatures (not the heat index). I believe that we will not hit 100 this Summer, mainly for the reason that it has been so wet and rainly lately. It's a known fact that it takes moist soils longer to heat up, since they are loaded with lots of water which takes longer to heat up and cool down then dry soils. Still the moist soils have also been a curse, since it means more local humidity that would other wise be pretty meager especially with a dry north Texas and southern Arkansas which is were our Gulf of Mexico flow comes from. In otherwords we are still seeing heat indexies that are above 110 due to the wet soils and rapid evaporation throwing more humidity and moisture in to the air. Either way it is still hot, but today should be the last day of extreme heat at least for the next three weeks. After then there could be a minor heatwave around the 20 to 24th period, but that would be it for the excessive heat this Summer. All signs point that this will be a cooler and wetter then normal Summer, and I don't see that ending anytime soon.

Second the severe weather risk today. That is all due to a relatively strong but slow moving cool front approaching from the north. This will set off some scattered showers and few strong thunderstorms this afternoon with a better chance for more widespread showers and severe thunderstorms during the evening and overnight periods. Mainly threats being very heavy rain with all of the moisture in the atmosphere, frequent cloud to ground lightining, some large hail upto half dollar or 1.5" in diameter and damaging winds between 50 to 70 mph. There is also a very slim but present chance of a weak tornado especially in the late afternoon and through early evening. Believe that storms will startout as single cell and some descrete supercells before transfering into bow segments or a few forward propagating MCS (Meso-Convective Systems) later in the night. There is also a continuing risk of severe weather tomorrow as well. Once again damaging winds and heavy rain remains the main threat along with some isolated hail upto quarter size. Front clears the area early Thursday Morning with drier and slightly cooler air especially along and north of I-70.

Next story is of course tropical storm Edouard which hit Galvaston, TX early this morning slightly ahead of schedule, but that is actually a saving grace, since it prevented the storm from becoming a hurricane which would of caused more destruction from wind and surge. This system is mainly a heavy rain producer, and that is what it is expect to stay. It will die a slow death in cenral Texas before getting picked up by the front now approaching our area on Friday night and into Saturday. However flooding is occuring in some low lying areas, and that remains the biggest threat with this storm and will remain a threat through Friday.

Finally the Perseids Meteor Shower is set to peak early in the pre-dawn hours of August 13th, 2008 with hourly rates upto 120-150 per hour in ideal dark and dry conditions. most likely for the Metro area I'm expecting only 25 to 40 meteors per hour in the city of St. Louis with amounts increasing considerably as you move away from the urban center with most suburbs seeing about 40 to 65 meteors per hour and rural areas seeing 65 to 90 meteors per hour. Best chance of seeing more then 100 meteors per hour is in the rurual areas of the Ozarks or south central Illinois away from any major towns and cities. The highest rates appear to favor the eastern Pacific, and the western half of North America, but should the peak arrive an hour or two earlier or later it could have a significant impact on the hourly rates either for the better or worst. More on the Perseids as they get closer. Although already you can see a few sporatic Perseids in the pre-dawn hours. Just look to the east an hour or two before sunrise and you should see anywhere from 5 to 15 meteors per hours from the Perseids Meteor Stream!

Have a great week, and enjoy all the interesting events in the skies this week!

Well, this week is once again all about unsettled Summer weather as was the trend last week. Looking for two possibly three rounds of strong to severe storms, and temperatures that are at or above normal for high and especially low temperatures. June so far just refuses to dry out as my original summer forecast predicted, but at least the temperature trends are right on track. Still expecting to see temperatures fall to slightly below normal numbers by the end of the week and periodically through the remainer of the month, although it appears that rain will be a tough nut to crack as it just refuses to leave, so that means the remainer of the month will be on the wet side from time to time.

Today's weather headline will be all about St. Louis Summer time heat and humidity with many locations seeing highs in the low to mid 90s and a heat index at or above 100 degrees for at least a 1 to 3 hour period for many locations especially the southeastern 2/3rds of the viewing area. Storms will be tough to find for the entire area during the day, but they will begin to appear for the northwestern counties sometime after 10pm, and for the rest of the area by tomorrow morning. Despite the heat and humidity, today is the day to get that lawnwork done and play with the dog, or any of those chores and activities you have been putting off. just be sure to use the sunscreen as the UVI will be near 13+, so you'll burn in just a few minutes. Best advise, try to avoid the midday sun, especially between the hours of 10am through 4pm. Morning and evening after 6pm is the best time to mow before it gets too hot, and the sun gets to strong. Also don't forget about the pets! Make sure they have plenty of fresh water to drink, and better yet bring them inside this afternoon, and give them some play time between now or 8am to 10am, and again after dinner time.

After a hot one today, the forecast attention then turns to storms and more storms especially overnight tonight and more so into the day on Monday and into Monday night. Severe weather will be a possibility again, however tornado risk is fortunetely low. More of a large hail and a greater potential for a damaging wind event. Best time between 10am Monday and into 8pm Monday. Storms will occur before and after those times, but the best probability of severe will be around the times listed above. Heavy rain will be the main concern, as there is some chance that the storms will train over the same areas similarly to last Friday, so some areas that were hit hard last time could get hit again with upto 3 to 4, maybe even 5 inches or more of rain possible in localized areas where the strongest storms occur. look for many flash flood warnings, also wouldn't be surprised to see a flash flood watch or some kind of flood headline housted later today or tonight going into Tuesday early morning. Active day is in store, but still iffy on some of the instability numbers, so there is some chance of an upgrade to moderate risk, but don't think this will be a season blockbuster as far as severe weather outbreaks are concerned.

After that we get some time to dry out Tuesday, but I can't rule out a spot storm, but it will be somewhat cooler. Still seasonably warm, but not hot. Tuesday is another good day to try to get the yardwork dne if you haven't done it by then. Expect temperatures into the 80s on Tuesday and Monday. Wednesday is a day of question. Another short wave is expected to arrive, however it will be a weak one and upper air moisture could be hard to come by. Still think instability will be there and at least soe warm surface temps into the 90s and dewpoints in the 60s, so any storms that can get going could go severe. Once again heavy rain, flooding, and damaging winds along with some hail appear to be the main threats. We're then dry on Thursday and stormy again on Friday (just can break that pattern!), Saturday also looks wet from time to time, but not an all day wash out. Once again severe weather will be possible, but too far to iron out any details as far as threats and available ingredients. At this point it does appear that Sunday will be dry, but that too could change. So just as a guide, enjoy the Summer weather, but carry an umbrella close by and be prepared to run inside in case some storms decide to ruin your BBQ or other outdoor actives this week and into next weekend.

Well, so far it looks like my first 15 days of June are half right and half off. Looks like I got the temperatures quite well, but the precipitation is quite a bit more then I originally expected, as far as chances go. We remain on the edge, and that means plenty of summer heat to go around, but it also means that we are on the firing range of severe storms and heavy rains from fronts and mesoscale storm clusters. Overall look for at least a 20% chance of storms each day, with tonight, Tuesday, and Friday through Sunday being the exceptions with 50% chance of rain or better during those times. As for temps they are to remain at or above normal with highs ranging from 84 to 96 degrees, dependant on the amount of rain and cloud cover that occurs on any given day.

As for severe weather, the best times are overnight tonight and into Tuesday with perhaps a bigger shot come Friday and Saturday. Main threats being very large hail and potentially destructive winds. Tornadoes are possible, but a few ingredients are missing for a widespread tornado threat. Tonight and Tuesday's severe threar comes from a potential mesoscale storm cluster set to begin sometime after sunset and travel southeast bound into Missouri and central to southwestern Illinois by 3 to 4am or later on Tuesday. It will most likely form in Nebraska and or southwestern Iowa and travel southeast from there. Damaging winds, heavy rain, and penny to half dollar sized hail is possible from that. Once the cluster passes, outflow boundries remain, and if the sun can come out tomorrow it could set the stage for pop-up thunderstorms with heavy rain and hail the main threat from those.

Friday and Saturday's threat will be related to a frontal system slated to cross the region and perhaps stall by Saturday afternoon and  perhaps continue the chance of storms into early next week. Damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado are possible on Friday when the best dynamics are expected to be in the area. Saturday will mainly feature and wind and perhaps a hail threat. Heavy rain is a possibly in any thunderstorm, so look out for areas of flash flooding especially in areas where storm cells train.

So enjoy the summer warmth that is almost more typical of early to mid July, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Could be some great storm chasing weather out across the high plains and into the Ozarks from time to time.