BRTNWXMAN's Blog

At the request of some of our regular weather bloggers, I'm going to create a fresh "corner".



First off, we have the coldest arctic air of the season settling into the area, and with 20-30mph winds, with higher gusts, you get dangerous windchills and a hardcore wintry feel to the first day of Winter.  Highs will struggle to get out of the single digits in the North, and mid-teens in the South, with windchills dipping to 20 below at times.  This is the most impressive "Blue Norther" we've seen in quite some time.  Tomorrow will be much the same, although winds will relax and temps will moderate somewhat, but still be well below average with highs in the upper teens/low 20s.  I think Lambert has at least a shot at seeing the goose egg for a low tomorrow morning, something that hasn't been seen in 10 years.  This is very difficult to do without a snowcover, but it can happen and this is the airmass to do it.  It's not the best radiational cooling setup with a Westerly wind holding through the night, but the sheer strength and depth of this airmass could overwhelm that.  Probably a longshot, but it's on the table.

Looking at the rest of Christmas week, we see yet another system taking shape as a storm rolls off the Pacific onto the PAC NW coast and into the Great Basin.  Ahead of the developing storm in the Plains, the arctic high will be transient(thanks to a +NAO - no blocking), quickly moving East of the area setting up a SW flow late Monday into Tuesday, which will try to dislodge the frigid air in place.  The models are undoubtedly shunting the cold air out too quickly, and that has to be considered when looking at our next system.  Unfortunately, the pattern that sets up is one where the low-level cold air remains in place, at least temporarily, while strong elevated WAA ensues as a potent low-level jet pumps warmer and moist air over it.  That sets up another possibility of a mixed bag of precipitation on Tuesday, something that most travelers don't want to hear.  



Even though the low-levels will be dry initially, over-running precipitation will saturate top down and likely start falling early Tuesday morning and continue into the day.  It looks like it will be snow initially, but will transition to a sloppy mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain, especially down South.  With extremely cold ground temperatures and stubborn sub-freezing surface temps, this will easily stick to everything, including roads, so travel could become dicey early in the day.  We should get some snow on the ground, with a mess on top, but we could see melting Tuesday evening and overnight as the precipitation likely turns to rain and shuts down during the day on Wednesday, perhaps ending as some wet snow as the system passes to our E.  Keep the idea of a colder solution in mind though...  The exact track of this system is very much in the air, because models continue to struggle with the strength of the cold air, and the fast pace in the atmosphere.  It had looked like this would track NW of the area a day or two ago, as the GFS and UKMET trended towards the relatively consistent EURO.  Now the models are sniffing out a track further SE as they start to pick up on the cold air, but still not far enough SE to bring a significant accumulating snowfall to the area.  Given the setup, with the energy traversing CA/NV before entering the Plains, I think it's going to be tough to get a decent track with this one.  That being said, the mis-handling of the cold air currently in place has to be considered as well, and this system isn't yet on shore to get good sampling into the models, so like I said, it's still anyone's guess.  I can see how we could get a quick burst of snow on the backside of this system, at least enough to whiten the ground.  Even if we don't get a White Christmas from this system, it looks like we'll finally break the all-time highest yearly precipitation record, previously held in 1982 @ 54.97".  Christmas day looks quiet with seasonable temperatures.  If we get some snowcover, temperatures could hang in the upper 20s to low 30s.



Looking long-term, the models are hinting at another storm system shaping up after Christmas.  The EPO strongly signals this, with a HUGE negative spike centered on the 15th.  With a fairly weak but present stratospheric warming event taking place at the same time and high latitude blocking returning, I think the period after Christmas and the first week or two of January will be an interesting time frame for us.  We should see some big storms and a clipper or two.  The models currently want to take the first system(around the 28th) to our NW(big surprise), but the EPO really argues for this to dig further S and E.  Maybe this will be the Southern track snowstorm we've been waiting for!  The weak La Nina that has developed should give us a decent pattern, with a split flow that allows Southern stream systems to hook up with cold air to the North.  The SE ridge poses a problem for storm tracks, but that should become more suppressed into early January as blocking develops and the mean trof moves back into the Plains.

Happy Holidays everyone!

This title may shock you, but apparently someone has found a link between Al Gore and Paris Hilton.  Not a family link, but another.  I saw where someone in the Alton Telegraph Sound Off has likened Al Gore's receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize to Paris Hilton winning an award for her acting skills.  Frankly, I find it disgusting that someone would even attempt to compare the two.  Al Gore has dedicated his life to getting the word out about Global Warming, even though he is constantly hounded for his actions and ideas.  The only thing Paris Hilton has done has created a self-image of a stupid spoiled wh*re.  So I thought I would whip something up stating my ideas and supporting facts on why I believe in Global Warming, and why a few select people are trying to persuade the public otherwise.

 It's been my opinion and observation that there are scientists who are being cow prodded by some very influential folks, mostly in this country.  When you sit back and think about how global warming could affect these CEOs and Presidents of large corporations, namely oil moguls and auto manufactures(they have repeatedly refused to comply with upgraded CAFE standards[fuel mileage standards], which would put us on a more level playing field with other countries, including some Developing countries), you begin to see why this is occurring.  It's obvious(I hope it is, if not you aren't paying attention to what's happening under your nose...) that these corporations are all about the bottom line and profit.  Global warming poses a risk to these folks, and they are denying it to keep things the way they want it.  George W. Bush gave a prime example of this, by not signing the Kyoto Protocol(which puts carbon caps on countries, allowing them to "trade" carbon emissions with  other countries).  His reason?  It would hurt the economy.  In reality, the only people who this would hurt(at least in the long run,) would be the head honchos of these companies and corporations.  The Bush administration is now looking to ratify or ignore the Montreal Protocol, which reduces the use of ozone depleting chemicals CFC and HFC, siting a need to allow over 10,000 tons of Methyl Bromide, a greenhouse gas and ozone depletant, to be used freely.  The global limit on "critical use" Methyl Bromide is only 16,000 tons.  Environmentalists and responsible economists know that a newly formed industry, called the "green" industry, would actually create desperately needed jobs and spur a healthy economy, all while cleaning up the mess we have created on this fragile blue-green planet we call earth.  The tobacco issue of yesterday is a PERFECT example of what is now occurring with climate change.  The huge tobacco companies did the same thing when they were accused of peddling a very dangerous product(the stuff is more addictive than heroin, and kills hundreds of thousands of people yearly).  They brought out science that said there is nothing to worry about, that tobacco is a safe product, end of story.  To deny global warming is like denying the fact that 5 of the warmest years on record have been recorded in the last 10 years, that glaciers are retreating at record paces, soon to all but disappear, and Greenland is fracturing and falling to pieces at an alarming rate.  Some scientists fear that the Atlantic ocean current, which sends warm waters North out of the tropics into the Northern Atlantic, along the East Coast, may reverse or be seriously disrupted due to the increase in cold waters from melting ice caps in the Arctic.  This would have profound impacts on weather patterns across the globe.  Ecologists, some of which I personally know, are studying the impacts of climate shift on species distribution around the globe.  A local scientist is studying red-eared slider turtles, because their range is expanding Northward rapidly, and they are producing multiple clutches due to earlier springs(last spring is a bad example :)  Their populations are exploding in places, shifting ecosystems so rapidly that other species can't keep up.  The list goes on and on.  I think it would be ridiculous to say that this is all directly related to anthropocentric pressures.  It's known that we are in a warming cycle of the earth(see the chart, drawn from ice core examinations, below), coming out of the Wisconsin ice age(and the "little ice age") that ended approximately 10,000 years ago.  But think about that.  10,000 years.  We're talking about a span of change across hundreds of years, not even thousands let alone tens of thousands.  The facts are all there, they are just being reputed by a few bad apples who are only concerned about their agendas and deep pockets, and others who just don't believe that we could be causing this(or at least aiding it) by our actions.  I hope this little write up allows you to take a step back and re-analyze your thoughts on global warming, if you are still a nay-sayer.  I know I'm convinced :)

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Thanks to Mchafin for bringing up this topic in his blog. 

Some of you who read Chris' weekly blog may remember me mentioning that the negative SOI induced southern jet could begin to affect the US in the long range. I have been keeping tabs on the long range models(GFS, Euro) and the signs of change are begining to appear. As Dave mentioned in his discussion today, the West Coast is becoming active once again, and that is a sign that the pacific jet is trying to undercut the ridge and create a stormy pattern. I have also been reading up on various met blogs, and I caught the post that Joe Bastardi of Accuweather just released. He is really talking up the idea that the southern branch looks to tango with the polar front/northern jet by the middle of next week(around the 15th). There are signs that there could be a prelude to that this weekend, but it doesen't look real appealing just yet. I am, however, impressed with the chances of a major system cranking up somewhere across the Central/Southern US next week. The model concensus doesen't particularly impress at this point, but they do show a pattern that would support a system cranking up. Henry Margusity also noted this today. It is certainly something to watch in the next week or two, while in the meantime we fiddle with these clippers and the brutal artic express. The storm tomorrow looks to give a dusting to an inch to most of STL, while folks to the north of the viewing area will enjoy 1-3 inches, with isolated 5 inch amounts in Central/Eastern IL and the Ohio Valley. We have a snow advisory posted for late tonight into tomorrow afternoon with 2-4 inches here in Macomb, IL. That is gonna set the stage for some brutal overnight low temperatures, especially with the next glancing blow of artic air this weekend. Winter seems like it is here to stay in the forseeable future.

Here's my thoughts on the 12z GFS. I think we have seen the first signs that it is starting to get a better picture of the cold air. It is, in my opinion, still having trouble resolving how the energy comes out of the SW. I can see why Chris thinks that several waves will come out. I do see the posibility of a potent surface wave pulling out when that secondary energy dives in from the North around hour 144. As for the cold air, it has the PBL below freezing(1000-850mb 1290m thickness; useful if you can find it!) by Saturday. Given the warm air aloft, the setup for ice is obviously there by mid-day Saturday, given there is precipitation. Also, it shows the possibility of snow later in the weekend. It brings the 1000-700mb 2850m thickness line through early Sunday. Obviously, too early to be nit-picking on thermo fields, especially looking at the GFS. I just want to show that it looks like it may be getting the idea.

Well, looks like we are going to continue to see big swings with the models. To be expected, I guess. The hinge that this storm swings upon(quite literally!) is how quickly/strongly it wraps up in the GoMex. The key in this is the shortwave coming in upstream. This is where the models get hazy. The models that have this energy diving down into the trof(Euro, JMA, Canadian) really deepen the GoMex wave and begin to kick it to the North pretty quickly. The other solutions(00z NAM. heh) point to the s/w pulling out of the main jet energy and "cutting across the grain" so to say. The NAM brings this energy across the general NW-SE trending flow. I have to believe that the energy should buckle towards the South quicker and send it into the backside of the trof, like the other models are pointing to. The upper ridging behind it would support this path. This storm's strength and track will depend on how quickly phasing occurs. The JMA painted a good picture of how the storm would play out if this lagging energy phases well with the GoMex storm. It brings a stacked upper/mid low and an associated surface low up into the Bi-State region. The surface low tracks up through mid TN, bringing good def. zone snows to STL on Christmas day. The 00z GFS supports this track also. We are going to need pretty well timed phasing for a good snow event to occur here. So, keep an eye on the path of that s/w, and watch this unfold!

I'm pretty sure that by now, you all have heard about the potential for a storm around Christmas. Now, from what I have been seeing, the potential is definitely there. But, there will be many variables to look for that will affect our chances at a "White Christmas". For one, as expected, there is a bit of varibility between models right now. I would expect this to be the case until the storm actually makes West Coast landfall on Thurs/Fri. This has been the case with the last systems to come into play. So, until then, I would definitely take any run(s) with a grain of salt, and just decipher patterns from them. The models look much more consistent than with this last storm though. Now, like I said, there will be some things to look for that will possibly affect our shot at this storm. The real question that comes to mind is the track/cold air that this current storm takes/brings. If you remember from the ice storm scenario, there were paired storms with that event(the ice/snow storm and the one that preceded it). Well, before that first storm took the more Western track, that second storm was thought to travel further towards the East(like out to sea East). Well, when the ice storm decided to go further West, the Eastern storm followed suit, and gave some snows to Eastern areas(can't remember now the areas that got snow, but there was snow). I have seen this before, and I think it will happen with these next storm systems. When you have closely paired systems, the tracks usually semi-parallel each other, and the first track sets up the second. We need to watch the path of this current storm, to see how it may affect the Christmas one. A track that really cuts north through Western Kansas/Nebraska/Minnesota would be the preferred one. So watch how that pans out. We also need to see how much cold air this thing can pull down into the plains to be available for its relative "up the stream" so to say. Looking at the medium range models right now, it appears that the cold air will be more available with the next one, which makes since. It is still up in the air though, whether there will be enough available cold air to produce snow here. The other big thing to watch for, is the system that comes in quickly behind the Christmas storm. These upstream storms have an affect on the speed, intensity, and track of the downstream storms. So, if that upstream storm is strong and hot on the heels of our Christmas "looker" storm, it could nudge it further to the South/East, and not allow it to really crank up. Also, the strength/location of the SE ridge should be monitored also, because it has the same kind of effect.

Now, looking at the models(which, like I said, take them with a grain of salt for now), the GFS has been pretty stable with the trof deepening in the Rio Grande Valley, and pushing East and then curving slightly North into the Ohio Valley. This would take the surface low from the Western Gulf of Mexico northward into the Miss/Ohio Valleys. It seems to be the most bullish with the cold air potential at this point, showing an all snow event here. The DGEX shows practically the same thing although slower, and perhaps further to the North and West with respect to the upper low. It is a little more warm biased than the GFS. I was not able to check the Euro or the JMA due to technical problems with them. Many of the Euro maps were from October(weird), and the JMA was just a bunch of blank maps. It is pretty impressive how close the DGEX and GFS were to another, even though there was some timing issues there. This storm kind of reminds me of the 2002 Christmas snowstorm. Once again, I am calling out the potential for another White Christmas.

I'm pretty much in-line with Darkrious in saying that the Snow threat for STL is nil. It looks to be a Flagstaff footer, then moving up into the front range, and finally parts of the Upper Midwest. Hmm, that sounds familiar... [Dec 12, 2006 | 1:08 PM- BRTNWXMAN- "I think that there will a storm which affects the front range first, then a storm that hits the plains and upper midwest(the 19th-21st storm)"] You have to admit, that was a pretty good call. I don't really see flooding being a major concern in the Bistate area, although it wouldn't suprise me to see some watches go up with the ground moisture still pretty high, and some creeks running higher than normal. The P-wats(precipitable water) don't appear to be high enough to support really heavy rains right now, although that could change. I do, however, see a pretty significant severe threat with this. Not here, but down in Southern Texas and into Louisiana. [Dec 12, 2006 | 3:50 PM BRTNWXMAN quoting RodneyNeff- "Nah, there shouldn't be any threat of severe with this one, unless it is fired on the trailing cold front way down in texas." Wow, not to brag or anything, but I am batting a thousand! With the front pushing through Thursday afternoon/evening, dewpoints are progged to be in the mid 60's with higher numbers a possiblity. The 200 mb charts show a 130-140kt+ jet passing W-E right over Texas, with surface winds out of the SSE. With that kind of a setup, enough instability could cause a tornado threat. A real "outbreak" may be a longshot, but I hate to see the possibility of a tornado event right before the Holidays arrive. What do you guys think about this threat? I know some of you follow severe events closely, and with no chance at snows here, why not look at the severe side of it, right?

Wow. That is all I have to say. I know that we are a week out from this thing, but the models are absolutely useless right now. Seems like they are worse off than a day or two ago. Except for showing a storm somewhere between the rockies and the ohio valley. EVERY single model and every single run has a substantialy different take on the storm. I can see exactly why the well weathered meteos are saying that it will be a rough year of forecasting and models.

So what are they saying?
ECMWF(00z)- This shows a cutoff upper low forming over Southern Cali and moving slowly eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. I would assume that this solution would send pieces of energy into the Red River Valley and up into the Upper Midwest(it doesen't quite go out that far yet). If this were to be the case, each piece would pull a little more cold air in, so the latter waves might have a shot at producing a swath of snow wherever they go.

GFS(12z)- The GFS digs a nice trof into the west, with the axis down in southern cali, much like the Euro. It shows a good amount of energy upstream, and that eventually kicks due east across the Northern Rockies, and then crashes down towards the south across Illinois on Wed. It drags a cold front through bringing cold air in AFTER the precip. Then it shows the cutoff releasing eastbound much quicker than the Euro. The upper low moves across the southern states fairly quickly, leaving no shot at precip across the mid miss valley. This is a really screwy looking run, and I would simply throw it in the trash immediately. Don't know what happened here. It does show a monster storm on Christmas day though, LOL. Don't get me started!

DGEX(06z)- The DGEX really threw a knuckleball from yesterdays runs. Although I think it is my pick of the runs, and not just because it is the snowiest of them; it just makes the most sense to me. It shows the upper low digging into the far SW US, and releasing into the midwest like before. But now it is a little bit further east and south, and quite a storm. It has the surface low deepening around AR and then moving almost due North into Illinois and Wisconsin. It really wraps up some cold air into it. It is a little short on moisture, but at this point, who cares about moisture, it's all storm track.

As you can see, they are just all over the place! This is really getting fun watching this this storm, seeing what the models do with it, and reading the thoughts of fellow weather bloggers on the situation. We will just have to watch the models *try* to come into agreement with it, and see what happens! I hope you get some good info from this post, it took a while to make! And look at that, it's time to check the new GFS! HA!

On a side note- Did anyone see some good meteors last night? I saw probably the biggest of my life so far. There were some really good ones. Also, check out Angela Hutti's blog; she has some info about the solar storm that is approaching the earth right now, and a possiblility of Auroras tonight! If you don't know, it IS possible to see them this far south. My dad has seen them many times in his life, and he grew up in the Alton area.

Just got done checking the latest and greatest model runs. The 12z GFS is taking the 19th-21st storm even further north, and obviously the cold air never arrives until its past. Unfortunately, the DGEX model runs were a bust, so they don't show any info besides blank maps, so don't know what happened there. I'm eager to see the new runs of that, so i'm a little bummed about that. The JMA, or the "Japanese" model, on the other hand, is pushing towards a more eastern track. It shows a very impressive storm for STL, with the cold air arriving at a perfect time, but I'm not jumping on this until I see some more runs from it. The JMA is bad about jumping around with storm tracks. For the general consensus of the longrange models(GFS,ECMWF,UKMET), they pretty much all point towards the trof deepening over far Southern California, which is NOT a good place for the development of an STL snowstorm. The timing is off between models, so there is quite a bit of uncertainty right now. We'll just have to watch it unfold. I can see why Glen came out and said that Christmas snow is a no-go. I am afraid that the midwest/ohio valley will be in-between snows with the setup that will take place. I think that there will a storm which affects the front range first, then a storm that hits the plains and upper midwest(the 19th-21st storm), and then an eastern snowstorm after christmas. That leaves us in between. I don't like the idea, but I think the storms will hopscotch right over the midwest. Those are my thoughts for now. I may post again once the DGEX comes aboard(hopefully) with the next run. I'm also ready to see the 18z GFS too.

Models are beginning to show another storm coming out of the south. The timeline right now is around the 13-14 of Dec. This one will be different from the monster we had last week though. We should not have the deep artic airmass in place when it arrives, and no front for it to follow and develop on. This time of the year though, things like this should be watched closely. Normally, I would not even mention a storm that is out this far, but more than one model is jumping on the idea, namely the GFS and the DGEX. To make my point even stronger, the DGEX is the model that caught my attention with last week's southern "panhandler" storm that pounded the STL area. Just a thought...

By the way, I don't think I ever gave the Macomb/Brighton, IL report - Macomb ended up with 12" and an overnight/morning blizzard on fri. Brighton got around 1/2 of ice with 5-6 inches of snow/sleet. They were out of power for over 2 days.

Perhaps I was not clear about the shift to the W and N in the last post:

frivolousz21
Nov 30, 2006 | 10:58 AM

im not sure what you mean by the forecast going more north and west.

its much further south with the heavy snow today then it was the past 24 hours

My response:
Actually, if you are refering to the HPC's forecast, it didn't move south, it expanded. The center of the 12"+ area moved to the NW about 75 miles, but they expanded it, so St. Louis is still on the edge. If the area was shifted to the NW, it implies that the core snow bands will be more likely to set up to the NW. I will say though, I have been looking at the DIFAX surface maps through the morning, and it appears that the front is beyond what the models had thought last night. I think they are still having some difficulty in seeing the extent and deepness of the artic cold behind the front, which helps to nudge the front to the east and south. If the front can manage a 50 mi. push to the E and S before the southerly wave begins to stall it, St. Louis could be still in for some good snow amounts(8-10 inches). Then we would just have to watch out for a dry slot to form over SE MO, which could shut the party down prematurely.

Hope that clears things up/gives some hope to the STL snow geese.

Looking at radar, it looks like the deformation zone (snow belt) is really wrapping up over OK and KS. Looks like KC is about to get socked in for the day, and it is making it's way to the east/northeast. Also, I got a report that my anemometer/windvane on my weather station in Brighton is frozen stuck with ice, so there goes my peak wind readings!

It appears that the focus for the heaviest snowfalls has shifted ever so slightly to the west and north. This does not really downplay the situation in the St. Louis area though, as this will still be an impressive storm. To those who reside much further to the south, tilt your heads towards the north, cause you are really on the cusp now. Here is a link to the HPC, who has released updated maps on snowfall potential and a storm track map as well. http://hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml I should point out to those who don't look at this site, that as of about 4 this morning, the HPC was calling for a 70 percent chance of 12"+ snow in St. Louis and to the North. Take what you will from these forecasts. Just a sidenote, i have been glued to the weather channel this morning in Macomb, IL, and they are calling for 2-4 today, 6-10 tonight, and 1-3 tomorrow. Wait, does that add up to 9-17 inches? yep. We shall see...

stlweatherfanatic post:
As you seen the nws forecast office only is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of snow accumulation. Usually i agree but in this senerio i think they are making a dangerous mistake. Im still calling for double that. Please make proper percautions. Temps are already starting to fall. This will be a major storm!

Quoting stlweatherfanatic:
ME: Yeah, i'm with you in saying that the NWS should hold on to 8 to 12. I believe that the change was based on the new model runs, which have painted a more western storm track. Now, I don't buy this just like I didn't buy the easterly tracks a day or two ago. The front is slowly but steadily moving into the STL area, and by the time the storm nears, it should be far enough to the East to bring the big one to STL. I think they should stick to thier guns until the wave rounds the bend of the trof, and see where the location of the artic front is, which will be the exact path of the deepening low. This is because the front itself is the path of least resistance for the low, and it will ride it all the way. Snows on the NW side will be heavy to severe at times, because of the strong upper-level divergence that will set up in the St. Louis area. Thundersnow is almost a certainty in places, with snow rates pushing 3 inches an hour at times. Get ready now, cause this storm, if it pans out like I believe it will, is gonna shut down St. Louis for a time.

000
FXUS63 KLSX 291822
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1222 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE INDICATED. FRONT HAS ALREADY
REACHED A JEFFERSON CITY-PITTSFIELD LINE...WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S BEHIND IT. HAD A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER...THOUGH THEY HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. STILL HAVE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR POTENTIAL AS ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WITH STRONG SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE NIGHT.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT MAY REQUIRE CHANGE OVER TIMES TO BE MOVED UP BY A FEW HOURS ON NEXT FORECAST. IN THESE DEEP TROUGH/PARALLEL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SITUATIONS...WILL ALSO BE MONITORING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION(1/4 OR MORE) LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOLLOW BY SIGNIFICANT SNOW(OVER 6 INCHES) ACCUMULATIONS IS INCREASING...AND WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

BRITT

Here are my previous posts which got tossed when Dave created a new entry. I guess I'll start a blog so this doesen't happen! Here goes:

Tues. Early - I've been watching the possibility of a "Texas panhandler" storm since the DGEX model started showing signs of it last weekend. This is a classic setup for a "panhandler" storm to evolve and move towards the st. louis area, or at least the midwest region. Right now, there is alot of mayhem with the models, but i dont really buy the idea of pushing this thing much further east, which is what some were showing in earlier runs. It appears that they are coming into more agreement the GFS model, which has had the most longterm idea of a storm riding up the artic front into the miss/ohio valleys. It's looking interesting for the late wed./thur./fri. timetable! Let's watch this closely, because the NWS St. Louis office sounds like they are on the brink of posting a winter storm watch for the STL area.

Tues. Eve - Lost this post; just a re-inforcement of the previous ideas after the new model runs were released. I believe I said something about the fact that the models may have caught a better idea about the storm, and that it is looking like the storm would ride up the "sweet spot" for STL snow.

Wed. Morning - This "panhandler" storm definitly looks like it has it's bullseye on the st. louis area! I had a post yesterday on my thoughts on the storm, but they got trashed somehow. Anyway, it looks like it is panning out exactly how i thought it would, instead of the crazy models' outputs. Now the NAM model has come into good agreement with the earlier GFS/my ideas and it looks like a bomb for St. Louis! Here is a link to the HPC to see for your self. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml That'll show you what the HPC's thoughts are in map form, and as you will see, it has a bullseye painted for the STL area. I suspect we will see a Winter Storm Warning posted when the next shift at the NWS KSTL comes aboard. Readers should begin to prepare themselves, as this looks like a major storm with ice, sleet, and heavy snow. It's been a long while since STL has had a storm of this magnitude, so people should take much heed. My thoughts on accumulations? - 5-10 inches for the general St. Louis area, with isolated higher amounts. All depends on where the heavy snow band sets up, and who gets the thundersnow, which I believe is a good bet for some.