STL to AK and Back Again

Hey everyone, amazing weather Sunday morning as the remnants of Ike roared across the region. If you have pictures and /or video, please share them with us here!  Please tell us where the video was taken!!

 Wild week of weather here in St. Louis with something for everybody. After a cool weekend, Monday will bring a return to summer with warmer temps and higher humidity. A cold front will sweep through the area on Monday afternoon and that means showers and thunderstorms for the region. Some of the storms could be strong during the afternoon/evening hours on Monday.

 Then things go quiet again for a couple of days with sunshine and highs in the upper 70’s. By Thursday though there are a lot of questions. A front will be pushing in but models have been all over the place with the timing of its passing. On Saturday, it looked like rain Thursday night. But when I got in Sunday morning, it was looking more and more like Friday would be wet. That’s what concerns me. The latest track of Hurricane Ike takes it inland along the Texas-Louisiana border late Friday. If it curves north, Gulf moisture may meet up with this front and we could see heavy rains again around St. Louis the beginning of next weekend.

  Speaking of Ike, currently the Cat. 4 storm is pulling away from the Turks and Caicos Islands. Next in its path is the Bahamas and Cuba. The Florida Keys could be hit hard as well. The storm should lose some punch over Cuba, but regain strength as it enters the Gulf Of Mexico. We have to keep a close eye on this storm as it heads west.

Ahhh….summer in St. Louis. Wait a minute….this isn’t summer in St. Louis. Hot but not oppressive? Humid, but bearable? North and easterly winds? What???

Ok seriously, we have weather to talk about. High pressure controls our weather into Monday. But it is continuing to move east and we know what that means….a return to the southerly flow and more humidity into Tuesday.

But our eyes are on Hurricane Gustav, both because of how it will affect the Gulf Coast and how it will affect St. Louis weather. Two potential paths for Gustav.

1) It hits near New Orleans and then continues north into the Midwest and St. Louis.
2) It hits near New Orleans and then continues west into Texas and the desert Southwest.

You’ll notice that both options include a very powerful hurricane hitting New Orleans. Not something those folks wanted so soon, just three years, after Katrina. Oh, P.S. don’t forget about Tropical Storm Hanna which is headed toward Florida.

Mixing in with possible moisture from Gustav will be a cold front dropping in from the northwest. So rain and storms are a good bet for Wednesday and Thursday.  Behind the cold front is some very cool air. Highs in St. Louis by then end of the week could be in the upper 70’s.

-Angela


To keep up to date on the tropics, click here.

An area of high pressure is dropping south into the upper Mississippi River Valley and will dominate the weather in the bi-state area over the next few days. That means northerly winds, cooler temps, and lower humidity.  This High along with the weak, almost stalled out, cold front ahead of it will keep the remains of Tropical Storm Fay away from St. Louis. There will be some more clouds in the southeast corner of the FOX 2 viewing area…maybe a shower or two. On Sunday, there will be a bit of a battle over LA, MS, and TN as Fay tries to move north but the ridge tries to keep it south. The remnants of Fay will eventually kick off to the northeast.

  We remain trapped between High sliding into the Great Lakes to the North and Fay’s remnants through midweek. Another front moves in Thursday night. Right now, things are not looking very impressive in the models. But we’ll need to keep an eye on it.

 Speaking of keeping an eye on it, we’ll have to watch the Caribbean just south of Puerto Rico. Could be area where we see some tropical development in the coming week.

  I’m in on FOX 2 News In The Morning all this week, so we’ll see you soon!

-Angela

High pressure is in control of our weather for the next few days. That means drier, cooler easterly winds and lots of sunshine. Temperatures stay below average for the early half of the week, but things begin to change slightly by mid-week. The high that’s in control will drift just enough east that a more southerly wind will creep in. That will boost temps a few degrees by then end of the week. It will also allow a chance of rain to move in by Thursday. It’s a small chance, but it’s there.

I really want to focus on Tropical Storm Fay. This could be a big problem for Florida for a couple of reason. A nearly stationary front south of St. Louis has kept the storm track over the Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. for almost the last week. So northern Florida has seen very active weather already. Now, here comes Fay. As I type this at noon on Sunday, the track of this storm moves it across Cuba, across the Florida Keys, and over the Florida peninsula…almost due north. Tropical Storms warnings and Hurricane watches are in effect for the Keys. Fay is moving to the WNW at about 13 mph and her winds are sustained at 50 mph. Forecasters are expecting some strengthening until it get over Cuba. Combine that stationary front with a slow moving tropical system and let’s just say this makes a bad week to be traveling to Florida.

 Well, I personally love this weather. Northerly flow in the atmosphere means cooler and, for the most part, drier air here in St. Louis. It’s been interesting to watch that giant MCS move very slowly southeast through Kansas and Arkansas over the last 24 hours. Very impressive storms this morning in southern Arkansas. Anyway, a ridge of high pressure is building southward into the region…keeps our weather un-August like. Weak front moving through ahead of that front and that could fire off a few showers and storms south of St. Louis Sunday afternoon.
  From the good to the bad: a frustrating week for forecasting here in St. Louis. Over all the weather will be good, but there are a couple of chances for rain that are proving difficult to time out. A shortwave moves through on Tuesday to bring in the chance of showers and storms but the models are all over the place when it comes to timing. Will have to keep an eye on Tuesday/Wednesday forecast closely. Another chance of rain Friday into Saturday. Could be some strong/severe weather in St. Louis Friday into Saturday if current model forecast holds.
 Quick check of the tropics, show a couple of tropical waves coming off Africa in the Atlantic at the start of the week. Hurricane Hernan is slowly weakening in the Pacific.

  Warm front moving east Sunday morning is helping to fire some rain and thunderstorms primarily right along the Mississippi and points east. That is keeping Sunday temperatures in St. Louis and Illinois on the cooler side. Once the front lifts away and the storms move on, sunshine will return and so will the heat.

    Dangerous heat and humidity for St. Louis this Monday and Tuesday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds across the region.  Temps will climb into the mid to upper 90s with some places hitting 100 degrees. With dewpoints in the upper 70s, heat index values will be very high, with some readings near 110 degrees.  Please, please be careful if you have to be outside. Drink plenty of water, wear light colored clothes, and take frequent breaks. If you have outside pets, bring them inside if you can.

  In anticipation of the urban heat island effect, an excessive heat warning has been issued for St. Louis County and the City of St. Louis from Noon Monday into Tuesday. A heat advisory has been issued for the rest of the region.

  Tuesday evening we’ll watch for storms to move in and break up our heat. Could see some severe weather as a cold front that dives into our stifling summer airmass.  Rain and storm chance continues into early Wednesday. Temps will be more bearable as we finish out the work week.

 As for the tropics, NHC is watching an area of  low pressure area that has formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Conditions appear to be favorable for a tropical depression to  form early in the week.

A slow moving warm front across the Plains slides eastward Sunday and will serve as the focus line Sunday evening for thunderstorms and possibly an MCS as it hits our hot and humid air. Some of the storms could be strong or severe. Strongest storms look to hit in the early morning hours of Monday and primarily St. Louis Metro and points east.

Temperatures will stay in the 90s throughout the week with high humidity levels. Tuesday should be the hottest day of the week with metro St. Louis high temps at or above 96 and heat index values above 105.

Thunderstorm chances return Wednesday as the moisture from former Hurricane Dolly heads back across the U.S. after getting picked up by the Jet Stream. We should see scattered thunderstorms through Thursday.

All is quiet in the tropics, both Atlantic and Pacific,  as I type this on Sunday morning. We’ll have to keep an eye on the African coast to see if anything develops.

  People have been asking “Where’s Summer” since the start of June and now the heat is really settling in over the St. Louis region. Sunday and Monday of this week will see the   hottest weather so far this season, though actual temperatures do look like they will stay below 100 degrees officially.  The impact of the urban heat island will result in high temperatures in the upper 90s in the city of St. Louis and mid-90’s in the metropolitan area.  Combine the hot temperatures with our nasty humidity levels and St. Louis will see heat index values topping out around 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the city of St. Louis until late Monday. The surrounding metropolitan area will also experience extreme heat Sunday and Monday and should exercise caution.

  As for the rest of the week, isolated storms Sunday and Monday afternoon around the area, the pop, summer time variety. Good chance of an MCS along the MO-IA border Sunday night which could send a few early morning showers and storm in the direction of St. Louis, especially North. The wobbly stationary front that’s bee up in Iowa for the last bunch of days is starts to drop south as a cool front on Monday. Should see some thunderstorm development Monday night ahead of this front and those storms could continue to affect St. Louis into Tuesday. Behind the front, not a huge break from the heat, though high temps should be a few degrees cooler. But there will be a short break from the high humidity Wednesday into Thursday as High Pressure from around the Great Lakes drops south.

 To the Tropics: Tropical Storm Bertha refuses to die. Now an extropical storm, it still has sustained winds of 70 mph. Tropical Storm Cristobal is hugging the Carolina coastline, about 15 miles ESE of Cape Lookout, N.C. This is that former Tropical Wave that sat off the coast of Florida for a few days. It’s moving slowly, 7 mph to the NE. Winds, as I type on Sunday morning, at sustained at 50 mph. Lots of rain for the East Coast from this storm, along with storm surge of 2-3 ft.  Shall we all sing… “Well, Hello Dolly.” We also now have Tropical Storm Dolly in the Western Caribbean. Warnings are out for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. As I type, the storm is about 230 miles SE of Cozumel moving at about 17 mph. Sustained winds are at 45 mph. The center of Dolly could move across the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday night and into the Gulf of Mexico. This will be a big rain maker for the Y.P.

 Hello! I hope you all had a great Fourth of July weekend. Sorry, about last week. Posting the blog completely slipped my mind.

  Weather-wise, a great weekend around town. Thanks to a surface high pressure system we enjoyed lower temperatures, lower humidity, cool easterly winds. Hard to believe it was July in St. Louis.

  This week, a fast zonal flow takes hold to our north. High pressure is moving away, so that will allow a warm front to cross the St. Louis area on Sunday night. That means higher temps and humidity on the way.  Frontal passage will increase moisture in that atmosphere. So look for scattered thunderstorms the next few days.  

  A cool front slowly moves east and crosses St. Louis Tuesday night into Wednesday. That will mean a better chance at organized thunderstorm activity.

  Well, Sunday starts the week on a wet note. No all day rain, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the region as I type on Sunday morning, mainly north and east of downtown. Then another round of storms is possible Sunday afternoon and evening thanks to warm and humid air. Some storms could be strong to severe.
  Today’s wet weather is courtesy of the last week front, wind shift, trough, disturbance, or whatever you want to call it to move through St. Louis in the Northwest Flow. On Monday, high pressure slides in for a one day reprieve from storms.
  Warm air advection returns to St. Louis on Tuesday and that means more unstable air. Partly cloudy skies with summer-time pop thunderstorms possible in the afternoons of Tues-Fri.
  As for the rivers, Alton, St. Louis, and Chester have all crested. Louisiana and Clarksville will crest Sunday evening. Winfield and Grafton crest on Monday. All river crest predictions have come down in the last 48 hours, but of course there is still plenty of devastation.

FOX 2 is your source for in-depth flood coverage, but we need your help to do an even better job. Please post any pictures you have taken on the flood waters in your community or in the water-logged communities you have visited. We want to be able to show photos from across the region on the air. So please, post your photos in your blog photo albums or in the comments section below if you know how! Thanks in advance from all of us at FOX 2.
--Angela

This photo was taken by blogger "White_Shadow_Photog"

Hello from Angela’s Corner. Busy week last week, but we’re looking at a quieter week this go around.

 We are on the thunderstorm watch Sunday afternoon thanks to a warm, humid, and unstable atmosphere south of an approaching cool front. As I type this at 10:45 am Sunday morning, we are already seeing strong thunderstorm development in southeast NE and northwest MO.  The cool front moves southeastward through St. Louis Sunday night and that will bring a round of strong to severe storms to the region.  I think we could see a second round of rain and storms Monday morning before the all goes quiet Monday afternoon.

  Canadian High settles across the region on Tuesday and that means drier air and slightly cooler temps for the rest of the week ahead.  Yay for lower humidity!  Next chance for rain and storms looks to be very late in the week…late Friday into Saturday morning.

  Of course, all eyes are on the area rivers, especially the Mississippi. While this is not a record flood for many areas (i.e. 1993), this flooding is nonetheless devastating for many small river communities. Several dry days in a row, like we are expecting this week for Tues-Fri, will be a big relief and allow towns to get flood prevention measures in place before the river crests late in the week.  Don't forget, you can track river levels on the Weather Buffet page right here on myFOXstl.com

--Angela

Good Morning from Angela’s Corner! At your request, I’m going to try to take over for Chris while he is overseas so we can all have a place to chat about the current weather situation. Here’s what I’m looking at for the week ahead.

Blocking High Pressure that is forming over the extreme Southeast U.S. is centered just a little to far away for us to stay dry for the week ahead. We’ll continue to be on the edge of the Jet and that means more rounds of heavy rain and storms. I’m thinking two in fact: Monday morning into afternoon and then again Friday into Friday night.

As I type this Sunday morning, strong to severe weather is already striking Iowa and Northern Illinois. Surface Low will lift northeast towards the Great Lakes overnight Sunday into Monday. MCS concerns to the west of St. Louis tonight. Cold front will push east tonight and should bring strong to severe thunderstorms by Monday rush hour. The usual big threats will be possible: damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding. I’m a little concerned that the I-44 corridor that got hit so badly with flooding rains on Friday could be hit hard again.

Things go quiet again on Tuesday…we will be hot and humid through Thursday. Then, here we go again on Friday as a system similar to the one to hit Monday strikes the Midwest.

This video is out of Northern Oklahoma and was taken on Saturday, May 24. This was the second touchdown of at least three that day.