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STL to AK and Back Again

by AngelaHutti from St.Louis

Last Post 1 day, 7 hours Ago


Ahhh….summer in St. Louis. Wait a minute….this isn’t summer in St. Louis. Hot but not oppressive? Humid, but bearable? North and easterly winds? What???

Ok seriously, we have weather to talk about. High pressure controls our weather into Monday. But it is continuing to move east and we know what that means….a return to the southerly flow and more humidity into Tuesday.

But our eyes are on Hurricane Gustav, both because of how it will affect the Gulf Coast and how it will affect St. Louis weather. Two potential paths for Gustav.

1) It hits near New Orleans and then continues north into the Midwest and St. Louis.
2) It hits near New Orleans and then continues west into Texas and the desert Southwest.

You’ll notice that both options include a very powerful hurricane hitting New Orleans. Not something those folks wanted so soon, just three years, after Katrina. Oh, P.S. don’t forget about Tropical Storm Hanna which is headed toward Florida.

Mixing in with possible moisture from Gustav will be a cold front dropping in from the northwest. So rain and storms are a good bet for Wednesday and Thursday.  Behind the cold front is some very cool air. Highs in St. Louis by then end of the week could be in the upper 70’s.

-Angela


To keep up to date on the tropics, click here.
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Member Comments Total Comments: 64
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guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
Sep 1, 2008 | 7:46 AM

Was looking at the current information on the cold front headed for us for later this week. I thought you snow lovers might enjoy this. This is for Montana mountains. Norther Idaho has freeze warnings behind this front, FYI

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 6500 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY UP TO
5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 6500 FEET.

snowman99 read my blog
Sep 1, 2008 | 9:24 AM

Well, the HPC has an area of 9 inches, that's right NINE inches of rain over much of the area. If that verifies, LOOKOUT! Big time flooding potential. We'll have to watch this carefully the next couple days.

snowman99 read my blog
Sep 1, 2008 | 1:02 PM

WOW, the 12 GFS show about 8-9 inches of rain in STL! This could get very interesting in a couple days...

cardinals4ever read my blog view my photos
Sep 1, 2008 | 2:05 PM

Yes I agree snowman. Very worried on the Missouri and Meremac. Could be another major crest on our rivers.

guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
Sep 1, 2008 | 3:09 PM

Flood and flash flood watches are already issued for NE OK and NW AR for general 4-8 inches of rain, and spot amounts up to 12" for Tuesday evening through Friday. The Tulsa NWS ends their flood watch statement with this line.

THIS MAY BECOME A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT.

rsn25c
Sep 1, 2008 | 5:47 PM

just wondering if anyone had a hunch of what the weather might be like around the 12th and 13th of september. I know its a ways out.

guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
Sep 1, 2008 | 6:28 PM

Snowman, the latest precip map from the NWS reinforces what you talk about. It looks liek we are about to get VERY, VERY wet

Photobucket

AngelaHutti read my blog view my photos
Sep 1, 2008 | 6:37 PM

Could be some very wet times as we go into Wednesday night!

BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 1, 2008 | 8:17 PM

Rsn, that is a long ways out, but I'll give it a shot. The pattern should be in a state of transition as a longwave trof across the Central US finally lifts E/NE, and ridging comes into the Rockies and Western High Plains states. This should result in a dying front, and high pressure settling and drifting Eastward across the Northern US and Great Lakes, resulting in a seasonal, perhaps slightly warm pattern as the ridge moves Eastward and a SE or S flow develops. Think low-mid 80s. Precipitation and/or heavy cloud chances look low, but keep an eye on tropical storm Ike, it could make it into the Gulf and who knows from there.

Hope this helps, but I give no promises!

Sounds like you guys are on top of the heavy rain/flooding threat from the remains of Gustav interacting w/ a front/trof coming out of the West. It seems likely that most, if not all of the energy and moisture will be advected into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, which is what the EURO has been showing very consistently, and now other models, including the previously stubborn GFS, are coming in-line w/ that idea. This could be a drawn out event as the frontal boundary stalls near or just SE of the area on Wednesday, and waves of energy and moisture get caught in the Westerlies and train along the boundary. Very high moisture content, a supportive jet structure, and a warm advective profile argue for very efficient precipitation production. I think the HPC QPF forecast is pretty realistic, but I wouldn't forecast more than 5" at this point. I'd have to see how the remnants look and how fast they are mo

BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 1, 2008 | 8:18 PM

moving after 36 hours or so after landfall to say 5"+ is possible. Look for the heaviest rain to fall from mid-day Thursday, into Friday morning, but I wouldn't be surprised if the rain doesn't completely end until Friday night or early Saturday morning. Could also have some pretty gusty winds on Thursday if the actual circulation stays intact.

Peagcu read my blog
Sep 1, 2008 | 9:52 PM

The tropics are hopping now. Gustav is here and Hanna looks to be a decent storm as it moves into the SE. Now Ike is looking like a good bet to affect the US somewhere. Right now FL should be keeping a close eye on him.

rsn25c
Sep 1, 2008 | 10:27 PM

Thanks Brtn. I pray that you are right.

Im getting married on the 13th at the botanical Gardens and Im getting a little anxious about the weather around here.

BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 2, 2008 | 12:08 AM

Congrats, and I'll keep you in mind if things change down the road. What a cool place to get married at! Hope all goes well.

snowman99 read my blog
Sep 2, 2008 | 5:12 PM

well a flash flood watch has been issued for the area from Wednesday afternoon thru friday morning. 3-5 inches of rain expected with locally higher amounts. I still think someone will see 10 inches out of this.

AngelaHutti read my blog view my photos
Sep 2, 2008 | 7:04 PM

Congrats rsn25c and good luck! I have to agree with BRTN, it's pretty far out but looking quiet right now.

The latest forecast data continue to show the potential for widespread heavy rain to develop across the region Wednesday night into Friday. The combination of deep tropical moisture from Gustav and lift from the approaching front is the reason. Rainfall will be heavy at times and runoff could result in small streams and creeks topping their banks.

Peagcu read my blog
Sep 2, 2008 | 10:37 PM

Ike looks like a real looker for the gulf states. If it makes it past Cuba without too much interruption it could really become a biggie if it hits warm water in the gulf. Of course the ever present shear factors have to be thought of also.

BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Sep 3, 2008 | 12:31 AM

Thought I'd whip up a rainfall chart, I was bored :)
Photobucket

The models seem to be trending NW w/ the heavy rain axis, but I think the Northern section of the front will remain progressive enough(it's through Quincy now) into tomorrow to keep the axis close to home, but NW of STL. I'm not too impressed w/ totals topping 5-6", but I put an area to the West of town to account for that. Also, the timing of the heaviest rainfall has been moved up about 12 hours or so, so Wednesday night into Thursday evening looks like the main trust, with showers lingering into Friday morning, and maybe sprinkles or light showers again on Saturday.

guyatacomputer read my blog view my photos
Sep 3, 2008 | 7:49 AM

In support of your plotting Brtn the heaviest area on your map is getting hit pretty good this morning while much of the area is dry, and even some shots of sun filtering through the clouds on Fox 2 this morning.

snowman99 read my blog
Sep 3, 2008 | 12:33 PM

Amazing, like 95% of Missouri is wet right now on radar and the other 5% is right over east cantral part of the state, right over us, so what else is new. I'm sure it'll fill in, it better.

As for Ike, Peagcu I really believe it's an East coast runner. Chances of that system getting into the Gulf with the latitiude it's at now are very very small. Of course Hanna has to move first, also an east coast storm, and it could intensify rather abruptly in coming days right up to landfall. Josephine is probably a fish.

Peagcu read my blog
Sep 3, 2008 | 2:48 PM

Well snowman, the NHC has him going wnw then sw. Who knows? I think Andrew came in kind of like that.

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AngelaHutti

Born and raised in St. Louis, I'm living my dream of being a meteorologist. I came to Fox 2 in October 2006 after a few wonderful years doing weekend weather for KTVA CBS 11 in Anchorage, AK. Look for me weekend mornings on Fox 2 and at every Cardinals game I can possibly get to!

Member Since: 11/15/2006