STL to AK and Back Again

Was looking at the current information on the cold front headed for us for later this week. I thought you snow lovers might enjoy this. This is for Montana mountains. Norther Idaho has freeze warnings behind this front, FYI

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 6500 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY UP TO
5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 6500 FEET.

WOW, the 12 GFS show about 8-9 inches of rain in STL! This could get very interesting in a couple days...

Flood and flash flood watches are already issued for NE OK and NW AR for general 4-8 inches of rain, and spot amounts up to 12" for Tuesday evening through Friday. The Tulsa NWS ends their flood watch statement with this line.

THIS MAY BECOME A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT.

Snowman, the latest precip map from the NWS reinforces what you talk about. It looks liek we are about to get VERY, VERY wet

Rsn, that is a long ways out, but I'll give it a shot. The pattern should be in a state of transition as a longwave trof across the Central US finally lifts E/NE, and ridging comes into the Rockies and Western High Plains states. This should result in a dying front, and high pressure settling and drifting Eastward across the Northern US and Great Lakes, resulting in a seasonal, perhaps slightly warm pattern as the ridge moves Eastward and a SE or S flow develops. Think low-mid 80s. Precipitation and/or heavy cloud chances look low, but keep an eye on tropical storm Ike, it could make it into the Gulf and who knows from there.

Hope this helps, but I give no promises!

Sounds like you guys are on top of the heavy rain/flooding threat from the remains of Gustav interacting w/ a front/trof coming out of the West. It seems likely that most, if not all of the energy and moisture will be advected into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, which is what the EURO has been showing very consistently, and now other models, including the previously stubborn GFS, are coming in-line w/ that idea. This could be a drawn out event as the frontal boundary stalls near or just SE of the area on Wednesday, and waves of energy and moisture get caught in the Westerlies and train along the boundary. Very high moisture content, a supportive jet structure, and a warm advective profile argue for very efficient precipitation production. I think the HPC QPF forecast is pretty realistic, but I wouldn't forecast more than 5" at this point. I'd have to see how the remnants look and how fast they are mo

The tropics are hopping now. Gustav is here and Hanna looks to be a decent storm as it moves into the SE. Now Ike is looking like a good bet to affect the US somewhere. Right now FL should be keeping a close eye on him.

Congrats, and I'll keep you in mind if things change down the road. What a cool place to get married at! Hope all goes well.

Congrats rsn25c and good luck! I have to agree with BRTN, it's pretty far out but looking quiet right now.

The latest forecast data continue to show the potential for widespread heavy rain to develop across the region Wednesday night into Friday. The combination of deep tropical moisture from Gustav and lift from the approaching front is the reason. Rainfall will be heavy at times and runoff could result in small streams and creeks topping their banks.

Thought I'd whip up a rainfall chart, I was bored :)


The models seem to be trending NW w/ the heavy rain axis, but I think the Northern section of the front will remain progressive enough(it's through Quincy now) into tomorrow to keep the axis close to home, but NW of STL. I'm not too impressed w/ totals topping 5-6", but I put an area to the West of town to account for that. Also, the timing of the heaviest rainfall has been moved up about 12 hours or so, so Wednesday night into Thursday evening looks like the main trust, with showers lingering into Friday morning, and maybe sprinkles or light showers again on Saturday.

Amazing, like 95% of Missouri is wet right now on radar and the other 5% is right over east cantral part of the state, right over us, so what else is new. I'm sure it'll fill in, it better.

As for Ike, Peagcu I really believe it's an East coast runner. Chances of that system getting into the Gulf with the latitiude it's at now are very very small. Of course Hanna has to move first, also an east coast storm, and it could intensify rather abruptly in coming days right up to landfall. Josephine is probably a fish.