STL to AK and Back Again

Also, we are about 3 months out from talking about when we'll get our first snow. w00t!

Got some pretty heavy rain maker thunderstorms that look like they'll be brushing the eastern counties. Flash flood warning NE of Effingham and flood statements for the counties just across the line in Indiana straight east from Flora. We're actually getting quite dry here, so the rain that is forecast for tomorrow night will be welcome.

No kidding jeepers, we've got a heat index of 99-100 right now... Temp:89* Dew:76*(the psychrometer had 77.3...). It's sticky more than hot, that's the worst part. Glad I don't have to work today :p

Well Bertha is now a Major Hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean with 115 mph winds. Could get a bit stronger and become one of the strongest hurricanes for so early in the season. May stall out in a few days near the Bermuda area, but chances are it'll miss the USA totally, but let's not say that for sure yet.

Hey guys what's up!! Hope all had a great Weekend!

Hey do me a favor...My wife and I got our daughter Lily registered in Baby Idol on 103.3 website...can you please cast your vote for her....go to

http://www.my1033.com/pages/babyidol_vote.html

and she is toward to bottom of the page under Lily W. she is the one in the car seat resting with a pink dress and Hat on...

We would really appreciate it. Thanks

Hey snowman, did you happen to watch Joe B's videos today? I hesitated to watch them/read his posts about Bertha considering his track record from last season, but I did, and they are good. He does a great job explaining what different factors are coming into this to determine the track. I don't think it's out of the question at all that this thing hangs around Bermuda for a day or two, and decides to start West again, taking aim on the SE coast. He explains how models have a hard time nailing the evolution of anticyclones across the N/W Atlantic, and I think that's a big factor in this. The water is very warm across that area, and argues for the ridge to be stronger than the models are showing. Way too many variables right now though, it's tough to say w/ any confidence what this thing is really going to do. It sure is a strong one though, and it's still over cooler waters.

As for tomorrow, we should see fairly widespread storms as the front/outflow moves South into the area. The NAM is forecasting CAPES of 1500-2500 j/kg, with decent shear and convergence along the effective boundary. I would expect some of them to reach severe limits, but I don't think this will be much of a severe event, other than widespread storms that could lay down rain amounts of over an inch in many locals.

I'm seeing more and more signs that a heat wave may be coming(it felt like it was here today - we had a high heat index of 103 I believe) around the 15th. The Western ridge is starting to collapse(PNA is now dropping into negative values), and I believe the Bermuda/Upper High w

SPC has a slight risk area from to the west and north. Hail and winds are the primary threat

Lots of splash and dash storms all over east central MO this morning - not true popcorn storms as these aren't dying away real quick. Also a pretty good sized shield of rain moving SE from Jacksonville, IL.

Promises to be an interesting day and overnight.

Severe t-storm watch just to the north of the metro area. Discussion from SPC

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS MO INTO
W-CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKLY
ORGANIZED OVER CENTRAL MO...WITH INCREASING SHEAR/ORGANIZATION INTO
MULTICELLS EXPECTED IN TIME TOWARDS NERN MO/IL. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CORES...ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

get

I'm with you, Mommy2, I think this is going to slide by us to the north and to the south. I bet we don't get any rain in Florissant. I think I am heading to the pool after work.